The push to the fantasy football playoffs continues! Identifying risers and fallers to help guide difficult lineup decisions can help keep our teams on the right path. As always, I’ll also name one player on the hot seat. There is not much room for error ahead of Week 10.
Week 10 Risers, Fallers, and Who is on The Hot Seat
Risers
C.J. Stroud, Quarterback, Houston Texans
Stroud is an obvious riser and at the top of this list ahead of Week 10 after his overall QB1 finish with 41.8 points on Sunday. Prior to, Stroud hit a little wall averaging just 14.07 points per game. It happens. Looking ahead, Stroud has a fantasy-friendly schedule and the poise to serve as a top-10 option to help your team clinch the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 could provide a negative game script for Stroud and the Texans as they head to Cincinnati to take on a Bengals team that’s on a four-game win streak. Over their last three games, the Bengals’ defense has held the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Buffalo Bills to a combined 48 points for a 16 points per game average. Stroud, who is averaging 35 pass attempts per game, should be plenty busy in this matchup.
Weeks 11 through 13 are where Stroud will really prove to be a riser. He and the Texans get a three-game home stand. Their opponents, the Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Denver Broncos all allow 18.1 or more points per game to quarterbacks. They each rank inside the top 10 in points allowed to the position. If you need a trustworthy option to make the playoff push, Stroud is your guy.
Jonathan Taylor, Running Back, Indianapolis Colts
Placing Jonathan Taylor on the Week 10 riser list is to dispel any lingering fear of a split backfield with Zack Moss. Since Taylor’s return to action, his snap count has continued to increase week by week. As a result, Moss’ snap count continues to decline. Over the last three weeks specifically, Taylor has played 123 snaps to Moss’ 78 snaps. In Week 9, Taylor dominated the share with 45 (74%) to Moss’ 13 (21%) in their win over the Carolina Panthers.
With the increase in workload, Taylor is churning out plenty of fantasy points, as well. From Weeks 7 through 9, he is the RB10 on a points-per-game basis. He is averaging 16.5 PPR points on an average of 19 touches per game. He’s getting it done on the ground and through the air with the third-most targets on the Colts since Week 7, as well. Zack Moss should remain on benches as an obvious top handcuff, but this is Jonathan Taylor’s backfield moving forward.
Demario Douglas, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots
He isn’t a league winner or even a set-and-forget starting wide receiver, but Demario Douglas is on the flex radar for the foreseeable future. Douglas isn’t a player anyone drafted or even took notice of until halfway through this season. Over the Patriots’ last three games, Douglas has at least six targets in each of them and exactly seven targets in their last two games. Additionally, New England is finding ways to get Douglas involved with exactly one rush attempt per game mixed in over the last three weeks, as well.
Demario Douglas is a clear beneficiary of Kendrick Bourne’s season-ending torn ACL. Douglas has played the most snaps amongst Patriots receivers over the last two weeks. He has yet to find the end zone this season but is still averaging 9.93 points per game over his last three. The Patriots offense is tough to invest in, but they do rank inside the top 10 in pass attempts per game. Demario Douglas, as the top receiver, has risen to be a fine volume-based flex option.
Fallers
Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons
I’m not telling you to trade Bijan Robinson as soon as possible before your league’s trade deadline. However, if you did trade Bijan Robinson, I would completely understand. After averaging 15.8 points per game through the first six weeks, it’s easy to see Robinson as a fantasy faller since. In Week 7, he succumbed to a pregame headache and fantasy managers have had one of their own since.
Even if you chalk the headache game up as a mulligan, Bijan Robinson is the RB27 over the last two weeks. He shares that ranking with Chuba Hubbard just ahead of Emari Demercado who scored zero points last week. Bijan Robinson has just 12 touches per game in his last two, even finding the end zone in Week 8, and his scores are still that bad.
If you have Bijan Robinson, I don’t need to tell you about his head coach Arthur Smith. Yes, Arthur Smith coordinated the Tennessee Titans offense in both 2019 and 2020 when Derrick Henry led the league in rushing each season. That same Arthur Smith has given Bijan Robinson, the eighth overall pick, just ONE CARRY inside the five-yard line thus far as a rookie. He has just two carries inside the 10-yard line.
Robinson and the Falcons head to Arizona to face a Cardinals team allowing the third-most points to running backs. Then he and Atlanta are on bye. Now may be the best time to move on from Bijan if you’re desperate to make a playoff push. Just know, though, that all three of his fantasy playoff opponents, the Panthers, Colts, and Bears, rank inside the top-eight in points allowed to running backs, as well. While he’s a faller now, he could be a league winner when the time comes.
Davante Adams, Wide Receiver, Las Vegas Raiders
I love the Las Vegas Raiders smoking cigars in the locker room after a 30-6 win over the New York Giants as much as the next person. That doesn’t change the fact that Adams remains a faller in fantasy football regardless of the Raiders’ success. The team is 4-5 with a chance to get to .500 in prime time hosting the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. Considering the Jets’ secondary is one of the best in the league, we will likely see another high-volume showing from Josh Jacobs and the Raiders’ run game.
Davante Adams remains the top target in Las Vegas’ passing attack. He has now caught passes from three different quarterbacks in nine games this season. It looks like rookie Aidan O’Connell will get the chance to start moving forward. That should mean a high quantity of targets for Adams, but at what type of quality? Adams has 26 targets over his last three games, but just 12 total receptions.
Since scoring 42.2 PPR points in Week 3, Adams has just 51.3 total points since. With a three-game stretch against the Jets, Miami Dolphins, and Kansas City Chiefs, it’s hard to imagine Adams finding WR1 success in either matchup given his quarterback situation and the caliber of defenses he’s up against. He’s extremely touchdown-dependent at this point. I’m listening to trade offers for this fantasy faller especially if another manager still believes in the name.
The Week 10 Hot Seat
Geno Smith, Quarterback, Seattle Seahawks
What is going on with Geno Smith? If you drafted or started him at any point this season, you’ve already asked yourself this at some point this season. Last year’s QB8 on a points-per-game basis is this year’s QB27 through the first nine weeks. Geno Smith is overdue for the hot seat, but I’m finally using Week 10 as an opportunity to warn others not to start him unless truly desperate.
With Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Matthew Stafford on bye, some of you are contemplating plugging Geno Smith into your lineups. He does have a tremendous bounce-back opportunity at home against the Washington Commanders who are allowing the second-most points to quarterbacks. Unfortunately, when considering points allowed to opposing quarterbacks to each of his opponents thus far, Geno Smith has scored below the average number of points allowed in six of his eight matchups this season.
To make matters worse, Geno Smith has eight turnovers in his last four games. That’s six picks and two fumbles. Despite his struggles, the Seahawks have a 5-3 record. Moving forward, Geno Smith has two matchups against the San Francisco 49ers, two road matchups against the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys, and hosts the Philadelphia Eagles, just to name a few. It’s hard to imagine trusting him at any point for the remainder of the season, especially if he struggles in Week 10 hosting the Commanders.
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