Welcome to the 2023 fantasy football playoffs. It’s time to start your studs and go on a title run. The cruel reality is, though, that players get injured, schedules can be tough, and making lineup decisions is easier said than done. Knowing which players you can depend on as you advance through the playoffs is crucial. That said, consider these risers, fallers, and one player I’m putting on the hot seat ahead of Week 15.
Week 15 Risers, Fallers, and Who is on The Hot Seat
Risers
D’Andre Swift, Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles
While D’Andre Swift may be more appropriate to place on the Week 15 hot seat, I remain an optimist. Therefore, I’m brave enough to call him a riser as we enter the fantasy football playoffs. Swift has the absolute best schedule of any running back for the fantasy playoffs.
He starts on the road in Week 15 against the Seattle Seahawks. They’re allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. More specifically, Seattle’s run defense has allowed five rushing touchdowns to the position in their last four games. Swift remains a riser as he gets back-to-back home games to end the fantasy football season against the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals. Like Seattle, these defenses also rank inside the top six in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season.
It’s definitely difficult to consider any Eagle a riser after their offense has scored just 25 total points in their last two games. I just can’t emphasize the schedule enough as it begins to soften up. Now, we know Jalen Hurts remains a threat to Swift’s ceiling as he’s known to take off running and punch in a rushing score of his own. Let’s not forget, though, that Swift is fourth in total rushing yards (822) this season. He should remind us of that in Week 15.
Tyjae Spears, Running Back, Tennessee Titans
It’s a yearly tradition this time of year to see Derrick Henry rack up fantasy points and lead teams everywhere to the fantasy finals. This year is different, though. For the first time in forever, Henry’s counterpart in the Titans’ backfield is making a significant impact, as well. Many have come before him, but Tyjae Spears is a proven fantasy asset in this role and a fantasy riser for the playoffs.
I’m not going to go as far as to say Derrick Henry is a faller. He has three straight games of scoring two rushing touchdowns in each. Rather than foolishly cast doubt upon Henry, after rushing for just 34 yards in Week 14, I’m keeping him in my RB1 rankings, but giving credit to Spears where it’s due. Two weeks ago, Spears’ 20 touches, including 16 carries, set career highs for his rookie season. He then followed it up with another 13 touches for 118 total yards with a healthy Derrick Henry on the field.
A little-known fact this season is that Tyjae Spears has actually played more total snaps than Derrick Henry. Both have been active in every game, as well. Spears remains the preferred passing-down option and two-minute back. If the Titans’ offense continues to look how they did on Monday night with quarterback Will Levis playing as confidently as he did, Spears should maintain high-end flex value for the fantasy football playoffs.
Zay Jones, Wide Receiver, Jacksonville Jaguars
After losing Christian Kirk to a groin injury at the start of the Jaguars’ Week 13 contest, Zay Jones has stepped into a high-volume passing role similar to the one he had last season. Over the last two weeks, Jones leads all Jags pass catchers with 22 targets. Calvin Ridley (21) and Evan Engram (21) are right there, too, but they are more obvious start-worthy plays for fantasy football. All of them have a 23.8% or greater target share in their last two games combined. Due to this development, Zay Jones is an obvious riser as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
To much surprise, quarterback Trevor Lawrence remains a full-go even after a gruesome ankle injury that took him out of Week 13. He played Week 14 in full, though shaky at times, and is on track to start in Week 15. As the Jaguars continue to push for the AFC South title and a playoff spot, I expect them to continue a pass-heavy approach putting their fate in Lawrence’s abilities. Their 42.3 pass attempts per game over their last three ranks second in the league.
Despite Jones’ high volume of targets, he is averaging just 10.4 PPR points per game in his last two. He has exactly five receptions per game, though, so if he can start churning out yards, and even find the end zone, he will be a worthwhile WR3 start with upside for the remainder of the season. It’s worth noting Zay Jones caught four touchdowns on 35 targets during a five-game win streak the Jags went on to end last season.
Fallers
Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Chargers
Given the loss of Justin Herbert to Injured Reserve with a broken finger, Keenan Allen is the biggest fantasy faller heading into Week 15. The NFL’s most targeted player now gets a major downgrade at the quarterback position. Easton Stick will be under center for L.A. and has only attempted 25 total pass attempts in his NFL career.
To be brutally honest, fantasy managers with Keenan Allen on their roster need to prepare for the possibility of being without him for the remainder of the fantasy football season. He’s now dealing with a heel injury after playing through other various injuries this year. Allen is going to miss Week 15 on Thursday Night Football. This might not be just a one game absence.
The Chargers are 5-8 trending toward missing the postseason. Allen, who will be 32 at the start of next season, could also be a cap casualty for the Chargers saving the team $23 million if released during the offseason. Especially with Stick taking over for Herbert, I don’t see much incentive for Keenan Allen to return to the field this season.
Listen, if Keenan Allen is active, you play him. I don’t mean to be so doom-and-gloom, but it’s best to prepare for the worst with your league’s title on the line. Adding other free agent receivers, including Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston on the Chargers, is an effective way to combat the impact of Keenan Allen as a Week 15 faller.
Keaton Mitchell, Running Back, Baltimore Ravens
Coming out of their Week 13 bye, Keaton Mitchell’s fantasy production fell victim to the backfield committee in Baltimore. Though he is an exciting and explosive NFL player, Mitchell is a faller for fantasy football due to a lack of volume. Mitchell has no more than nine rush attempts in a single game this season. While he presents upside in PPR formats, after the catch, he hasn’t logged more than two receptions or two targets in a single game either.
At this point in the season, our playoff lineups need running backs who are playing a ton of snaps, seeing a heavy workload, or both. Very simply, the more a player is on the field, the more likely they are to get the ball. Again, off of the bye week, Mitchell played just 24 snaps (33%). Compare that to Justice Hill’s 30 (42%) and Gus Edwards’ 20 (28%) and it’s clear as to why Mitchell is a faller.
Keaton Mitchell’s fantasy playoff schedule also makes him a faller. In Week 15 and 16, he will have back-to-back road games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers. Both defenses rank inside the bottom nine in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. All things considered, Mitchell remains a high-floor flex option with an incredible 8.5 yards per carry, on limited touches, this season.
The Week 15 Hot Seat
Stefon Diggs, Wide Receiver, Buffalo Bills
The fantasy football playoffs is the time to start your studs. That includes Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, though, Diggs is entering the fantasy football playoffs on my Week 15 hot seat. Fear not, though, as multiple players I’ve put on the hot seat have bounced back shortly thereafter including Austin Ekeler last week.
Diggs has three finishes as WR53 or worse in his last four games. Hopefully, he’s done enough this season, as the WR8 on a per-game basis, to have your team still competing in Week 15. Despite poor production, Diggs has a whopping 35 targets in his last four games. That’s still the WR1 volume you need to have in your lineup.
Diggs and the Bills continue their push toward the NFL playoffs. There is a realistic scenario in which they can secure a home playoff game as AFC East champions. As far as fantasy football goes, Diggs has two home games in the fantasy football playoffs starting this week as Buffalo hosts the Dallas Cowboys. It’s a tough matchup, but Diggs is generally matchup-proof.
Diggs then gets a much softer matchup in Los Angeles against a reeling Chargers team before wrapping up at home against the New England Patriots. He posted a 6/58/1 receiving line on 12 targets in Week 7 against them already this season. So, while Diggs may be on the Week 15 hot seat, he’s an obvious start that should have a major impact in helping you win your league.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty