One win. That’s all it takes to claim your league’s championship title. All of the research, trades, adds, drops, and everything in between come down to this week. Knowing which players you can trust in your final lineup of the season makes or breaks your season this week. That said, consider these risers, fallers, and one player I’m putting on the hot seat ahead of Week 17.
Week 17 Risers, Fallers, and Who is on The Hot Seat
Risers
Breece Hall, Running Back, New York Jets
After finishing as the RB1 in Week 16, you have to start Breece Hall in Week 17. His 43.1 points are a career-high and likely has you in your league’s championship. The reason I’m including him on the riser list is because there may be some managers out there apprehensive about starting him with a title on the line. Breece Hall and the Jets open Week 17 on Thursday night in Cleveland against the 10-5 Joe Flacco led Browns. It’s a difficult matchup, but there’s reason to believe Hall is matchup-proof.
Hall is second amongst all running backs in receptions this season behind only Alvin Kamara, but ahead of players like Christian McCaffrey, Rachaad White, and Jahmyr Gibbs. He has at least six targets and five receptions in five of his last six games. More importantly, Breece Hall is the RB10 this season with only seven touchdowns to show for it.
The Browns defense hasn’t allowed a running back to rush for more than 44 yards since Week 13. No single running back has rushed more than 14 times since Week 13 against Cleveland either. In that same span, the last three backfields to face the Browns have averaged 17 total rush attempts per game. Breece Hall faces little competition in the Jets’ backfield for touches. He still provides a high floor in Week 17, but is a riser in quarterback Trevor Siemian’s second-straight start after drawing 16 targets from him last week. Start Breece Hall with confidence in the fantasy football finals.
K.J. Osborn, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Osborn, my top waiver wire add this week, is a riser at the right time for Week 17. After losing T.J. Hockenson (knee) and Jordan Addison (ankle) in Week 16, Osborn drew seven targets, second only to Justin Jefferson’s 10 on Sunday. We now know Hockenson’s season is over as he heads to Injured Reserve. Jordan Addison’s status is up in the air for Sunday, but he likely won’t be 100% if he plays at all.
We also know that the Green Bay Packers will be without their top cornerback Jaire Alexander after suspending him for one game due to conduct detrimental to the team. That leaves the difficult task of covering Justin Jefferson up to the rest of their secondary, which should open up things more for Osborn, as well.
Osborn is coming off of a five-catch, 95-yard performance in which he scored a touchdown. He’s been a riser before in this same offense in times when Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen have missed time due to injury. We know the Vikings are one of the top-five pass-heaviest teams in the league. Especially if Addison misses Week 17, Osborn is safe to plug into fantasy football finals lineups.
Gerald Everett, Tight End, Los Angeles Chargers
In two straight starts by Easton Stick under center for the Chargers, Gerald Everett now has eight targets in each of them. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game over his last five with a clear established role in the Chargers offense. The absence of Keenan Allen in the last two weeks positively impacts Everett’s target share making him a riser ahead of the fantasy football finals.
If you’re in your league’s championship, you probably have a tight end on your roster already that you trust. However, if you’re playing the streaming game or perhaps just lost Hockenson to the IR, Everett is enough of a riser to plug into Week 17 starting lineups. He and the Chargers are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos. They are the only team in the league to have given up 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season. That includes four over their last two games. Everett, with his steady target share in a plus matchup, is worth betting on to give you enough points to keep your lineup in contention for your league’s title. If he scores a touchdown, you should be more than thrilled with the result.
James Conner, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals
Another running back with a tough Week 17 matchup is James Conner. However, he is a riser for fantasy football as one of just five running backs to average 20.0 or more points per game since Week 13. He shares that accolade with Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Breece Hall (above), and Rachaad White.
What’s significant about Conner being a riser is his passing game usage. He has just 28 targets in 11 games played this season, but 15 in his last four! In his most recent effort on the road against the Chicago Bears, Conner caught all five of his targets for 67 yards and a touchdown.
Kyler Murray is always a threat to steal touches, in the form of carries, from Conner, but with limited weapons in the passing game, Conner’s value remains steady in PPR leagues. I expect another negative game script for Conner and the Cards on the road in Philadelphia this Sunday. He should come close to 20 touches both on the ground and through the air. Like Breece Hall, I’m mentioning James Conner on the Week 17 riser list as someone you can trust regardless of his matchup.
Fallers
Drake London, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons
It’s hard to trust any piece of Arthur Smith’s team in Atlanta so I’ll be leaving a fantasy faller like Drake London out of my fantasy finals lineups. London is one of those players with plenty of talent but in the wrong situation. We can only hope he gets a quarterback and/or head coaching change next season. For now, though, it looks like Taylor Heinicke will remain under center for the Falcons.
In Week 16, Heinicke started for Atlanta over Desmond Ridder. The Falcons won 29-10 over a solid Indianapolis Colts team. Unfortunately, even in a 29-point effort, Drake London caught just three of four targets for 39 scoreless yards. Heinicke targeted nine different players and London accounts for just 12.5% of the target share.
Plugging London into your Week 17 lineups is a massive gamble hoping Heinicke hones in on him as his primary pass catcher in Chicago against the Bears. The Bears have only allowed two wide receivers to log more than 57 receiving yards since Week 8: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Amari Cooper. I don’t expect Drake London to join them with his Week 17 performance on the road with Heinicke throwing his way.
Tony Pollard, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys
I’m giving you permission to sit Tony Pollard in Week 17. Crazy? Maybe. Justified? A little. Fantasy football faller? Absolutely. Tony Pollard no longer carries the ceiling we all thought he would heading into this season. The Cowboys let Ezekiel Elliott walk in free agency and hardly replaced him at all with their off-season moves. Pollard’s role as the lead back on the league’s second-highest scoring team has yielded just two games of 20.o or more fantasy points this season.
Let’s look at why Pollard is a faller specifically for Week 17, though. So far, through the first two rounds of the fantasy football playoffs, he has 13.0 total fantasy points. If you’re fortunate enough to have him and compete for a championship, you can’t realistically feel good about starting him. He and the Cowboys host the Detroit Lions whose defense has allowed just 884 rushing yards to running backs this season. That’s the lowest total across the league.
I understand Pollard isn’t the RB1 you hoped for so playing him as your RB2, if necessary, still makes sense. However, if you were savvy enough to pick up Kyren Williams, or perhaps have another riser at the position you’re debating plugging in, it may be a league-winning move to choose them over Pollard. As for your flex spots, there is a large handful of wide receivers with better matchups I would prefer than Pollard in Week 17, as well. It’s not an easy decision, but it could be the right one.
The Week 17 Hot Seat
Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs
If there is ever a time for Patrick Mahomes to justify using one of your top-three picks on him, it’s Week 17 with your league’s title on the line. Mahomes is the QB10 on a points-per-game average this season, but the QB8 amongst those who have played more than eight games this season. He hasn’t necessarily tanked your team, but given the draft capital used to get him on your team, you may have missed out on another stud at that draft spot.
Patrick Mahomes now sits on my Week 17 hot seat but with a chance to totally redeem himself at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. Mahomes doesn’t have a score of 20.0 or more fantasy points since Week 12 and has just five this season, three of which were in the first three weeks. The Chiefs are also 2-4 since their Week 10 bye, directly correlating to Mahomes and the offense’s struggles this season.
Luckily for Mahomes, the Bengals’ defense is allowing the fifth-most passing yards and sixth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. It’s a much better matchup than the Bills, Patriots, and rematch with the Raiders, all of which he’s had over the last three weeks. If you have Mahomes, you’re somewhat lucky to be in the finals. He’s averaging just 17.1 points per game since Week 11. On the other side of that coin, I can’t imagine sitting someone like Mahomes if you have a chance at a title. The quarterback position as a whole is gruesome this season and Mahomes, though on my Week 17 hot seat, still has plenty of upside to win your league’s championship.
Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty