I am now 5-1 in this column through two weeks after going 3-0 last week. That either means I am locked in to start the year, or it is all downhill from here. I will let you decide for yourselves as I present to you my three favorite Week 3 NFL Player props.
NFL Week 3 Player Props
Chris Olave 60+ Receiving Yards (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Please note the distinction on the prop itself. This is not the typical over/under bet. FanDuel currently has the Week 3 receiving total for Chris Olave set at 61.5 yards. They are offering -114 on both the Over and Under because… well because there is no proper government regulation and the sportsbooks nickel and dime poor schmucks like you and me by the thousands so that they can afford to pay celebrities to be in their commercials to attract thousands of other schmucks to download their apps. But that is a conversation for another day. Back to Olave.
I always price shop my props, but sometimes that requires more than a cursory view. Olave’s receiving yardage total was anywhere from 59.5 to 62.5 on the books I looked at. ESPNBet had the 59.5 number with a price to the Over of -130. I was initially going to take that. Then I figured since 60 (Over 59.5) is a yardage threshold of sorts, some books might post a 60+ line. Sure enough, FanDuel’s 60+ line came in cheaper than ESPNBet’s standard line.
As for the prop itself, this number just feels far too low given how New Orleans is performing on offense and Philadelphia is playing on defense. Olave is only averaging 46 yards per game through two weeks, but that undersells how well he has played. Olave is 13th in Pro Football Focus’ Yards Per Route Run metric, averaging 2.36 YPRR. The problem is that Derek Carr has only thrown the ball 39 total times in two blowout victories. New Orleans will likely have to throw the ball much more often against a potent Eagles squad. Olave averaged 33.9 routes run last year. If he gets anywhere near that number on Sunday, he has a high probability of going over his yardage total.
Olave also gets a solid matchup against the Eagles. So far this year, Philadelphia has allowed the third-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. They have also served up the third-most yards per catch to enemy wideouts. The Eagles have kept their cornerbacks stationary through two weeks, so I am not worried about them using Darius Slay as a shadow on Olave. Even if they did, I do not think that would prevent me from playing Olave. With defenses now being forced to pay more attention to Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara, this feels like the matchup to get Chris Olave going.
Check out all of our Week 3 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Devaughn Vele OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at Bet365)*
A couple of notes on this player prop before I begin. First, only about half of the sportsbooks I use have released a Week 3 yardage prop for Devaughn Vele. Second, none have released a reception prop for Vele. Truth be told, the reception angle is my preferred read in this game. Based on the yardage props, my guess is Vele’s reception line will come in at 2.5. I am playing the Over if that is the number as long as the price is not absurd.
In his NFL debut in Week 1, Devaughn Vele caught all eight of his targets from fellow freshman Bo Nix. All eight targets were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The eight catches resulted in just 39 yards. Vele missed last week’s game due to a rib injury. In his stead, Lil’Jordan Humphrey manned the slot for Denver. He caught all four of his targets, all of which were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Seeing a pattern yet? Sean Payton wants Nix to make easy throws to establish a rhythm. Of 71 throws charted by Pro Football Focus, 49 of Nix’s attempts were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Vele was a full participant in Thursday’s practice. That means he should be ready to go for Sunday’s Week 3 meeting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay allowed Lions’ slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to catch 11 passes for 119 yards last week. I am not suggesting that Vele is anywhere near the caliber of receiver that St. Brown is. But he doesn’t need to be to clear this prop, and Detroit’s success in the slot against Tampa is noteworthy. The week prior, the Buccaneers had a 58.9 percent blitz rate against another rookie, Jayden Daniels. I expect a similar scheme from Todd Bowles on Sunday. Payton would be wise to dial up some screens (Nix is 11-for-11 on screens through two weeks) and other short throws to enable Nix to get rid of the ball quickly. All of this should add up to enough opportunities for Devaughn Vele to exceed both his receptions and receiving yardage props in this game.
Demarcus Robinson 40+ Receiving Yards (-145, ESPNBet)
My final Week 3 player prop is a bit pricey. As an alternative, you can play Demarcus Robinson to go Over 42.5 receiving yards at -115 on BetMGM Sportsbook. The difference in implied probability between a -115 bet and a -145 bet is roughly 5.7 percent. Given the numbers I am about to outline, I prefer the three-yard buffer at the extra cost. But, as always, adjust as you see fit.
Since joining the Los Angeles Rams last season, Demarcus Robinson has played at least 50 percent of the time in nine games. Here are his yardage totals in those nine games: 13, 55, 46, 44, 82, 92, 44, 42, 50. Keep in mind that Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were on the field for almost all of the snaps in those first seven games. Neither will play on Sunday for the Rams, as both are dealing with injuries. That leaves Robinson as Matthew Stafford’s de facto number-one wide receiver. The Rams are playing the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Though San Francisco is a good defense, this matchup should benefit Robinson on a couple of fronts.
The 49ers are another team that likes to keep their corners locked into particular areas on the field. Top corner Charvarius Ward plays on the defensive left side of the formation on 92 percent of snaps. Robinson has only lined up on the offensive right side of the formation on 17 percent of snaps. That means he should see plenty of Deommodore Lenoir and Isaac Yiadom in coverage. Yiadom has allowed 1.34 yards per route run this year, while Lenoir sits at 1.27. Ward is among the lowest in the league with a 0.39 mark. Ward is also dealing with a hamstring injury, which could further test San Francisco’s depth at the position.
Los Angeles is one of the biggest underdogs on the Week 3 slate. If they fall behind, they may have to rely on the passing game more than usual. And the Rams are not exactly shy about throwing the ball under normal circumstances. Stafford has dropped back to pass 83 times through two games compared to 43 designed rushing plays. Robinson should get plenty of opportunities regardless of how this game plays out. But the chances of the Rams playing from behind should only help Robinson hit this threshold. For those who still are not convinced to play this prop, Saturday is Robinson’s 30th birthday. That has to put it over the top. It’s just science.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!