This article series continues to be my favorite content I produce each week, and that says a lot with the amount of content I push out in various forms every week. A lot goes into this series and I pride myself in identifying players who can take off in a given week. This article intends to assist you with your Fantasy Football lineups and DFS plays for an edge in your competitions.
Each week I dig into every NFL matchup. This means looking at Fantasy PPG (points per game) allowed, yards allowed, and who can benefit from those numbers in the matchup. I will always have hits and misses each week and will be accountable on both ends. Last week some of my misses for this series include D’Andre Swift, Tank Dell, Ladd McConkey, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, Jonnu Smith, and Jameson Williams for some examples. The hits from Week 3 include:
- Sam Darnold – 23.24 points
- Chris Olave – 20.6 points
- Chuba Hubbard – 27.9 points
- Derrick Henry – 30.4 points
- Rashee Rice – 29.1 points
- Khalil Shakir – 19.2 points
- Ja’Marr Chase – 29.8 points
- Bucky Irving – 11.4 points
- Austin Ekeler – 13.7 points
- Jalen Tolbert – 13.2 points
The NFL has had a lot of unpredictable moments so far this season but utilizing the matchup data can prepare us for a given week when paired with individual player context. I truly think there is an endless amount of “start em” articles out there in the industry but you will not have a better contextual breakdown than this article series. So buckle up and let’s roll into Week 4!
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Fantasy Football Week 4 Matchup Winners
Cowboys vs Giants (Thursday Night Football)
The Cowboys allow the fourth most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks so far this season and have allowed the third most total points…aka this defense does not look like the 2023 defense. Daniel Jones has scored 18.32 then 19.44 Fantasy Points the last two weeks in games he threw for a pair of touchdowns in both. Dimes threw for an efficient 70.6% completion percentage in Week 3 and for a season-high 236 yards. If you are looking for a quarterback streamer in Week 4 Jones can fill that need as the QB10 across the last two games played.
Jalen Tolbert was a player I highlighted in last week’s article as a potential FLEX option in deep leagues and I will say the same this week. Tolbert has been targeted 14 times across the last two games (nine then five), finished with 82 receiving yards in Week 2, and then scored a touchdown in Week 3. These are positive signs for production which you would figure means more earned usage moving forward. Tolbert has scored 14.2 and then 13.2 Fantasy Points in Week 2 and Week 3.
Saints vs Falcons
The Falcons allow the 10th most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season which could mean Derek Carr being a viable streaming option. Carr had a down Week 3 due to low yardage and a one-to-one touchdown to interception ratio but was hot across the first two weeks of football. Carr scored over 21 Fantasy Points in both of those weeks, totaling 443 passing yards and six total touchdowns accounted for during that span. Carr has yet to throw over 25 passes in a game but this inter-division game script could mean more volume.
Kyle Pitts scored a touchdown in Week 1 and finished with a season-high 59 yards in Week 3, but has yet to flash to the extent we are expecting him to tied to Kirk Cousins. I believe Week 4 will be the first big game. Pitts earned a season-high five targets last week, and that number can go up against the Saints who have scored the second most points this year. The Saints allow the fifth most Fantasy PPG to tight ends and the eighth most passing yards this season which sets up the Cousins to Pitts connection nicely this week.
Bengals vs Panthers
Zack Moss is coming off of his best game of the season rushing for 58 yards and a touchdown paired with catching five passes for 39 yards for 20.7 Fantasy Points. The Panthers matchup will support Moss staying hot as they allow the fifth most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the fifth most rushing yards this season. While the Bengals have struggled this season as a team and Andy Dalton elevated the Panthers in his first start of the season last week, I do believe the game script will allow Moss to earn a season-high in rushing attempts in Week 4. Last week’s 17 touches could be a sign for more volume to come.
The Panthers passing offense looked completely different Week 3 with Andy Dalton who threw for 319 yards and three passing touchdowns. For perspective, Bryce Young threw for 245 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions through two weeks of football before the change. The biggest beneficiary of the quarterback change was obviously Diontae Johnson who caught eight of his 14 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown for 26.2 Fantasy Points. Again for perspective the opening two weeks for Diontae meant just 12 targets, five receptions, 34 receiving yards, and no touchdowns for a combined 8.4 Fantasy Points. Be confident playing Johnson this week in a game where Dalton’s hand may be forced to match Burrow through the air.
Rams vs Bears
Kyren Williams has scored five total touchdowns this season which has made up for some major inefficiencies the opening two weeks. Williams had his best game of the season though in Week 3 rushing 24 times for 89 yards, catching two passes for 27 yards, scoring three total touchdowns, and producing 31.6 Fantasy Points. The Rams are a depleted core with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out, so attacking Chicago with Kyren after a hot week will be important to their gameplan. The Bears allow the 10th most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season and just allowed Jonathan Taylor to rush for 110 and two rushing touchdowns last week.
The Rams allow the third-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and the fourth-most passing yards this season. Although the Bears lost in Week 3, I think Caleb Williams flashed his profile plenty throwing 33/52 (63.5%) for 363 passing yards and two touchdowns. Caleb did throw two interceptions and fumbled, so his solid 17.32 Fantasy Points could have been more if he avoided the turnovers. Williams finished Week 1 with 93 passing yards and no passing touchdowns and then Week 2 with 174 passing yards and no touchdowns so this Week 3 boxscore could be an encouraging sign for more good days to come. The Rams are a great matchup for Williams to have another big day through the air, and his Week 2 rushing total of 44 yards shows he can get it done on the ground as well. Breakout performance is incoming.
Vikings vs Packers
Screaming from the rooftops here – “AARON JONES REVENGE GAME!!!”. Jones opened up the season rushing 14 times for 94 yards and a touchdown, caught two passes for 15 yards, and scored 18.9 Fantasy Points. After a down Week 2, Jones rushed 19 times for 102 yards and caught five passes for 46 yards and a touchdown for 25.8 Fantasy Points in Week 3. Encouraging is the rushing totals in two of his three games played along with catching 10 combined passes across the last two weeks. With it being Jones’ first season in Minnesota after seven seasons with a team in the division, you would figure the Vikings give him plenty of the rock in Week 4.
Reports indicated that Jordan Love was close to playing in Week 3 but ultimately ended up sitting out another week with his knee injury. This gives me optimism he will be back for Week 4, which would mean a different type of volume through the air in comparison to Malik Willis. This would directly impact Jayden Reed whose ceiling was limited with Willis the last two weeks. Reed opened up the season with a monster Fantasy week scoring 33.1 points due to catching four passes for 138 receiving yards and a touchdown paired with a 33-yard rushing touchdown. Reed is the most versatile wide receiver on the roster who is utilized on the ground which is evident by the 33 (and a touchdown), 37, and 19 rushing yard lines the first three weeks. Reed has also earned six targets in two of his three appearances and currently leads Green Bay in the category. The Vikings rank 13th in Fantasy PPG allowed to wide receivers and seventh in passing yards allowed this season.
Jaguars vs Texans
I will continue to push for Brian Thomas Jr. to be utilized in FLEX positions moving forward. The first-round rookie scored a touchdown and drew a pass interference in the red zone Week 1, finished with 94 receiving yards in Week 2, then earned a season-high nine targets in Week 3. Positive signs for the upside wide receiver that Trevor Lawrence has desperately needed. The Texans allow the 11th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season, and TLaw is going to have to chuck the ball plenty to keep up with the offense on the other side of the ball.
The Jaguars allow the second-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and have allowed the third-most passing yards this season which sets up CJ Stroud for a big week. As a rookie last year against the Jaguars Stroud scored 20.6 and 30.9 Fantasy Points in his two matchups against the Jaguars, passing for 280 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3 then 304 yards and two touchdowns in Week 12. Stroud has totaled 709 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, two interceptions, and 24 rushing yards so far this season which has been disappointing so far from a Fantasy Football perspective. Week 4 will be his best Fantasy outing of the season against a Jaguars team that are friendly to quarterbacks in 2024, and were friendly to Stroud in 2023.
Steelers vs Colts
The Colts allowed Cole Kmet to catch 10 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in Week 3 after not facing any above-average tight end in the two weeks prior. Pat Freirmuth has yet to have a huge Fantasy week, but has been consistently involved in the Steelers offense so far this season. Muth ranks second on the team in both targets (13) and receptions (12), and could be lined up for a solid Week 4. Encouraging also is Justin Fields coming off of season-highs in passing attempts (32), completions (25), completion percentage (78.1%), and passing yards (245).
Broncos vs Jets
The Broncos allow the 11th most Fantasy PPG to tight ends so far this season, and after a big week for Tyler Conklin he can be looked at as a streamer this week. Conklin caught five of his six targets for 93 yards in Week 3 for 14.3 Fantasy Points. Aaron Rodgers is still building connections in New York, after barely playing at all in 2023, so this connection could be a growing one moving forward. Conklin has been the epitome of a consistent target earner the last three seasons, earning exactly 87 targets in each of them. Week 3’s performance could mean more trust from his quarterback for Week 4.
Eagles vs Buccaneers
Saquon Barkley is an obvious Fantasy Football play each week and has been worth waging on in DFS, but this Tampa Bay game truly pushes him to have a massive week. The Buccaneers allow the sixth-most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the eighth most rushing yards this season, and seeing as though both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith could be sidelined this week it further emphasizes Saquon Barkley. Barkley currently ranks first in rushing yards (351) with 27 more than any running back, is tied for first in rushing touchdowns (four), is tied for eighth in receptions (10), and has scored the most Fantasy Points (84.4). I have said this on X but I do not think there is another player for any position I would rather roster rest of season over Barkley this year.
Chris Godwin is off to a hell of a season through three weeks as the third-best Fantasy scorer for his position, but I feel like this is a Mike Evans “get right” week. Both Evans and Godwin are questionable right now due to limitations at practice on Wednesday so be sure to monitor this. Evans opened up Week 1 catching five of his six targets for 61 yards and two touchdowns for 23.1 Fantasy Points. Evans then scored under eight Fantasy Points in the two games since. Just last season Evans earned 135 targets and produced 1,255 receiving yards with 13 touchdowns as a top 10 wide receiver in Fantasy PPG connected to Baker Mayfield. This connection does not just evaporate a year later. The Eagles allow the fourth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers, and I expect Baker to pass 30+ times in this one like he did in two of his three games this season.
Commanders vs Cardinals
Jayden Daniels has now scored 28ish Fantasy Points in two of his three games played this season. The rookie is an elite Fantasy Football asset and there is no debating it, and that is evident by him scoring the second most Fantasy Points through three weeks. Daniels’ rushing abilities were heaviest of tied to his prospect profile, and 171 rushing yards with three rushing touchdowns speaks to that so far. What was not often credited about Daniels’ profile was his passing ability despite the passing numbers at LSU. His passing yards have progressed from 184 to 226 to 254 through three weeks and he is coming off of a two passing touchdown game with no interceptions yet. The Cardinals allow the 11th most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks this season which further emphasizes that Daniels is a must-start player.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is set up for a massive Week 4 against a Commanders team that has allowed the most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the second-most passing yards this season. There is also a chance that Trey McBride will miss Week 4 due to his concussion which would further boost MHJ’s target share. The rookie has a quads issue right now but it does not seem serious and is simply something to monitor. Week 2 Harrison had his Fantasy breakout catching four passes for 130 yards and two touchdowns for 29 Fantasy Points. MHJ scored again in Week 3 but the most significant was his 11 targets. This is a matchup that MHJ can explode for 20+ Fantasy Points in.
Patriots vs 49ers
Drake Maye finished his college career with 8,018 passing yards, 63 passing touchdowns, 1,209 rushing yards, and 16 rushing touchdowns which turned into third overall draft capital in 2024. Maye saw his first game action in Week 3, and I think he sees more game action in Week 4 that ultimately turns into him becoming the starter with a loss to the 49ers. This is a dual-threat quarterback who can have Fantasy Football upside so I would suggest stashing him prior to Week 3. Sometimes a MATCHUP WINNERS article can have a side focus of making you a LEAGUE WINNER by giving you advice for your rosters beyond the intention of the article.
The Patriots allow the ninth most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and sixth most passing yards this season and after three weeks of terrible Brandon Aiyuk Fantasy production I will confidently say “This is the week.” 10 targets last week is a green flag despite the lack of production. This man put up 1,342 receiving yards last season, was paid, and is due to produce. Missing off-season time due to the contract situation could have impacted the first three weeks but I feel this is a game he can “get right” for Fantasy Football and with a banged up core for San Fran it just makes sense not to bank on Juan Jennings to shock the world again.
Chiefs vs Chargers
Rashee Rice is your obvious start here. Keep an eye on Ladd McConkey who averaged 14.7 yards per catch on a season-high 44 yards last week. Otherwise, there is a lot of uncertainty as to if Kareem Hunt gets snaps or if Justin Herbert is healthy so I do not have any strong matchup takes here.
Browns vs Raiders
The Raiders allow the 10th most passing yards this season and the 12th most Fantasy PPG which is not an elite quarterback matchup but I feel Deshaun Watson will be a good streamer this week. Watson threw a season-high 196 yards in Week 3 for a season-high two passing touchdowns but fumbled twice. Watson’s 85 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown flashes the upside on the ground we once tied to him. Watson finished as a top 10 Fantasy quarterback in three of the five full games he played last season, and this Raiders matchup feels like one he could get back to being a Fantasy impact in.
Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker were the Week 3 standouts for the wide receiver position for the Raiders, but Week 4 should mean their true WR1 popping back up. Davante Adams had a down Week 3 but still earned nine targets, which comes after an explosive Week 2. In Week 2 Adams caught nine of his 12 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown for 26 Fantasy Points which showed he still has juice left in the tank. The Browns allow the 12th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season and this matchup feels like one that will lean on the future Hall of Famer in Adams.
Bills vs Ravens
The Ravens allow the second-most Fantasy Points to tight ends this season which supports Dalton Kincaid trending up who had season-highs in various categories last week. Kincaid caught three of his five targets for 41 receiving yards and a touchdown for 13.1 Fantasy Points. Josh Allen threw a season-high 30 passing attempts which resulted in season highs in receiving yards and touchdowns last week for 263 and four. This is the type of matchup I would expect Allen to air it out, which could support Kincaid’s back-to-back Fantasy impactful weeks.
Derrick Henry was in this article series last week and ended up rushing for 151 yards and two touchdowns. This Bills matchup is one where Henry can stay hot. The Bills allow the seventh most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season and after the Ravens abandoned the passing game last week to only 15 attempts the run may once again be overemphasized if they can create a lead. 26 touches for King Henry is encouraging usage to grind out a W last week, and if the volume is there again this week it could be another spike week after a 30.4 point week.
Monday Night Football: Titans vs Dolphins / Seahawks vs Lions
- The Dolphins allow the third most Fantasy PPG to running backs this season which could mean a bounce-back week for Tony Pollard. Pollard opened the season with 18.4 and 15.2 Fantasy Points in weeks he displayed some rushing upside then receiving upside. Miami is a good matchup to get back to double-digit Fantasy Points.
- Skylar Thompson’s status for Week 4 is up in the air. That could mean Timy Boyle or Tyler Huntley. It was rough starting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last week but we have to trust Head Coach Mike McDaniels to find ways to get the ball in their hands as two of the best yards-after-catch specialists in the NFL.
- The Lions allow the third-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season, which means you should fire up DK Metcalf and even Jaxon-Smith Njigba in your lineups in a game that will be played through the air. DK has finished with 129 then 104 receiving yards and a touchdown in each of his last two games for over 20 Fantasy Points in both weeks. JSN was MIA last week but caught 12 of his 16 targets for 117 yards in Week 2 which shows upside in FLEX’ing the sophomore in this Lions matchup.
- The Seahawks are most friendly (1oth most Fantasy PPG) to tight ends this season which could mean a desperation play in Brock Wright if Sam LaPorta misses due to his low-ankle sprain. Otherwise continue to start Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Jameson Williams in your lineups in what should be a game filled with a lot of offense.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!