As October creeps upon us, we’re only a few weeks away from the start of the NBA Fantasy Basketball Season. We’ve been thinking about the league for months now, and the basketball gods reward us with a BLOCKBUSTER trade, that shakes up the NBA Fantasy Basketball landscape! Out-of-nowhere, the Minnesota Timberwolves reached a deal with the New York Knicks to trade Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle, and Donte DiVincenzo. Let’s take a dive into how this changes NBA Fantasy Basketball.
Fantasy Basketball Impact of KAT/Julius Randle Trade
Karl-Anthony Towns Traded to New York Knicks
New York Knicks Receive: Karl-Anthony Towns
Minnesota Timberwolves Receive: Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, First-Round Pick (via Detroit)
Let’s take a look at the Knicks projected starting lineup now (and 2024 usage rate %):
PG: Jalen Brunson (career-high 32.5% usage rate)
SG: OG Anunoby (16.8% usage rate)
SF: Mikal Bridges (24.3% usage rate)
PF: Josh Hart (13.5% usage rate)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns (27.4% usage rate)
First of all, Jalen Brunson became the unquestioned star and leader of this team last year. Jalen Brunson’s usage rate was elevated, as a result of what was required of him when Julius Randle was hurt last year, but his performance in the regular season and playoffs catapulted his role from a “do-everything-you-can” type of player to a “mandatory-20-shots-per-game” type of player. All while still bringing the ball up the court, and maintaining his status as an underrated passer. If you were high on Brunson to start the season, nothing should change in that thought process.
On the other side of the usage spectrum, we have Josh Hart. A coach’s dream. He does all the dirty work and does it well. Need someone to guard an offensive-minded big? Josh Hart will do it well. Need someone to guard a long/bulky point guard? Josh Hart will do it well. Need offensive rebounds? Josh Hart will do it well. Need someone to hit their open threes? Josh Hart will do it well enough. Outside of prime Draymond Green, he’s the closest thing we have to Dennis Rodman in my mind. While he’s obviously a shell of Rodman’s Hall-of-Fame level rebounding talent, his ability to do all the dirty work, with seemingly no desire to be a big-time scorer, is Rodman-esque. Hart’s role in fantasy is unchanged in this deal.
The fantasy impacts come for OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. There’s one aspect of the NBA that I believe a lot of fantasy experts fail to realize. Within a basketball team, there are relationships that need to be maintained and egos that need to be soothed. The players are not just numbers to be analyzed. Karl-Anthony Towns is a bigger star than both Mikal Bridges and OG (though the argument can be made that Bridges is the better player). He’s also the new man on a team of players that have all played together for multiple years now. The most likely path is that the Knicks will want KAT to keep his usage rate high and score, in order to endear himself to a prickly New York fanbase AND keep his confidence high throughout the season. Not only is NY a difficult place to play with constant negative attention, but KAT is also probably hurt (emotionally) by being traded away from a team that he played his entire career with, and helped become a playoff team (from the bottom of the standings). If the Knicks are to contend for a championship, they’re going to need the best version of KAT. That means Bridges and OG will need to sacrifice. I believe they will. You can expect 20/10/4 from KAT this year (similar to his career averages), and expect consistent 3 and D roles for OG and Bridges. There will be games when those two go off, but on average, it’s going to be the Brunson and KAT show. KAT’s fantasy stock is FLAT/UP, while OG and Bridges fantasy stock is DOWN.
Let’s take a look at the Wolves projected starting lineup now (and 2024 usage rate %):
PG: Mike Conley (career-high 16% usage rate)
SG: Anthony Edwards (32.3% usage rate)
SF: Jaden McDaniels (15.7% usage rate)
PF: Julius Randle (29.9% usage rate)
C: Rudy Gobert (15.4% usage rate)
Let’s be clear: After last season, this was always going to be Anthony Edwards’ team. He’s solidified himself as a top-10 player in the entire league for my money. He’s virtually unguardable and has a mindset that rivals the Kobe Bryants and Michael Jordans of the basketball world. But after trading KAT, this is even more of Ant’s team. He’ll have more spacing than he’s ever had, more of a green light to shoot, and the Wolves will play with more pace with KAT no longer slowing down the game in the post. Ant had a 32% usage last year, but I expect 35%+ this year. Edwards is likely to move up in my NBA Fantasy Basketball Overall Rankings in our next update. As for Julius Randle, he’s a black hole in the paint, and he can hit open threes if they’re there for him. He’s a similar skillset as KAT, but what they lose in defense with this trade, they will gain in attitude when it’s time for playoff basketball. Randle never shies away or disappears when the lights are bright. The complaint of Randle will be that he’s taking too many shots, rather than not taking enough. Randle’s fantasy stock remains flat to me. Everyone else: Conley, McDaniels, Gobert, and DiVincenzo will have the same roles they had on their 2024 teams.