(Read also: The Case For Drafting Victor Wembanyama at #1)
Currently, Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs is drafted, on average, at 1.49 on Fantrax. That is the top spot ahead of Nikola Jokic at 1.77 and Luka Doncic at 3.07. I had Wembanyama ranked as the 9th best player in category leagues last season on a per-game basis, which is great but a ways away from 1.49. Below, I’ll make the case as to why Wembanyama might not be the best choice at #1 in your 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball draft on Fantrax.
Why Victor Wembanyama is not the #1 pick
Not an elite creator for self
The commonality among the best fantasy (and real-life) basketball players is that they cook. You get them the ball and they will make things happen – over and over and over again. Going through the list of the top fantasy players in recent years – Embiid, Jokic, Harden, Durant, Curry – these guys are all habitual 30+ point per game scorers. Wembanyama only averaged 21.4 points (39th in the league) in 2023-24 with a below-average field goal percentage (46.5%). He’s about average from the free-throw line (79.6%) with only 5.2 attempts per game – Giannis and Embiid have more than double the attempts.
Also read, The Case for Drafting Victor Wembanyama at #1
Not an elite creator for others
The secondary skill for the elite basketballers is creating for their teammates. A few recent examples are Jokic, LeBron, and Steve Nash. Last year Wemby averaged 3.9 and 3.7 assists and turnovers per game respectively. The arrival of Chris Paul should lower both numbers with Wembanyama not expected to start so many offensive possessions. The main way Wembanyama creates for his teammates is by always being something to worry about for the defenders near the basket. Unfortunately, fantasy basketball doesn’t record gravity-assists.
Not an elite shooter
Wembanyama shot 32.5% from the three-point line in 2023-24, one of the lowest percentages among qualified players. He was 79.6% from the free-throw line, about league average. The low three-point percentage mostly reflects a shot-selection issue rather than a mechanical skill issue. But even then, there is somewhat of a cap set by the free-throw percentage – all the elite shooters are over 80%, nearing 90%. Wemby’s percentages at the Olympics weren’t impressive either, so I doubt there’s been any behind-the-scenes improvement in his shooting. He was 63.6% from the line and 28.9% from three. In fact, if he shot anything like that in the NBA, it’d be disastrous.
Potentially injury prone
Wembanyama played in 71 games in 2023-24, which, by modern standards, is a lot. I don’t mean a lot in a bad way that he’s somehow overused, I mean that it’s generally impressive and a good sign of health. He could have likely played more, had there been any stakes for any of the Spurs games. So why even bring up injuries? Well, he is still extraordinarily tall, even for an NBA player, and the track record for players that good and that tall ain’t so hot. Look at Porzingis or Yao. Wemby had already had lower leg and back issues before his NBA career started. Not that I’m predicting a catastrophic injury this year but there is considerably more injury risk with Wemby than with Jokic or Tatum. But, then again, considering how injury-prone everybody seems to be, there’s no need to make a big deal out of Wembanyama.
So there you go – a few points to consider before drafting Victor Wembanyama at #1. Not to say he still isn’t a fantastic player nor that he won’t improve all of the things mentioned above, even this season. But to improve so much that he shoots to the top of all players in fantasy basketball in 2024-25? I predict that it’s a leap too far.