The Week 16 risers, fallers, and hot seat list is somewhat of a “start/sit” article. After producing this piece all season long, this is now the penultimate article of its kind. There’s not much room left for players to rise or fall. It’s do-or-die time. Fantasy managers want to know who they can or cannot trust in their lineups and why…and, more importantly, NOW! This list is intended to dive a little deeper and discuss players beyond the obvious big names. For example, we know Jahmyr Gibbs is a Week 16 riser after the news that David Montgomery will miss the rest of the season with a new injury. You were starting Gibbs regardless, however. So, what about some other running backs in line for more work?
Week 16 Risers, Fallers, and a Player on the Hot Seat
Risers
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford may have been available on your league’s Week 16 waiver wire. You may have submitted a claim for him and woke up Wednesday with Ford on your roster. Odds are, if you did so, you need Jerome Ford in Week 16. All of a sudden, there are a ton of injuries among running backs. It’s certainly disheartening to be dealing with this heading into the fantasy football semi-finals, especially after such a strong year from the position. Just as quickly as a stud running back can go down, another can come through in heroic fashion. That’s Week 16 riser Jerome Ford.
Ford is an obvious Week 16 riser with the news that Nick Chubb broke his foot in Week 15. Chubb played in just eight games after returning from last year’s season-ending knee injury. I know Ford didn’t exactly tear it up before Chubb returned this season, but the Browns offense was completely broken with Deshaun Watson under center for the first half of the year. Ford has still managed a strong 5.2 yards per carry average this season. He is one of just seven running backs with 80 or more carries this season to average 5.0 or more yards per carry.
Ford played five full games before an injury of his own (hamstring) and Nick Chubb’s return. In those five games, Ford averaged 4.6 targets per game. Now, of course, Week 16 isn’t the same Cleveland Browns team as it was when Ford commanded the lead back role earlier this year. The obvious change is at the quarterback position. It’s not Deshaun Watson, or even Jameis Winston, but Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center in Week 16.
Luckily for the Browns’ offense, they’ll face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. That’s after getting flexed out of Thursday Night Football. The Bengals are one of four teams that have allowed over 30 points to opponents in their last three games. Cincinnati has allowed an average of 27.6 points per game to opponents this season, which is the second-most across the league. For fantasy football purposes, the Bengals have allowed a top-10 running back performance in four of their last five games. In the one game they didn’t, Rico Dowdle (RB16) of the Dallas Cowboys racked up 141 scoreless all-purpose yards. I think Ford is a top-20 option in Week 16 who will probably just need a touchdown to crack the top-12.
The Atlanta Falcons Offense
This league and this game change weekly. Ahead of Week 1, the entire Atlanta Falcons offense was on the first hot seat of the season in this article. Just last week, Kirk Cousins headlined the Week 15 fallers. It’s been an extremely up-and-down season for the Falcons, but their playoff hopes are still alive. To keep the hope alive, they are now turning to rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to start his first-ever game in Week 16.
Nothing could be worse for the Falcons’ offensive playmakers than what we saw from Kirk Cousins, specifically in his last five games. Cousins threw a touchdown pass to Drake London on Monday night which was his first passing touchdown since November 3rd. We had a presidential election, Thanksgiving, and finished our winter holiday shopping all in between! Even worse, Cousins has thrown nine interceptions in his last five starts. You know it’s bad when the Falcons won in Week 15 and are still making this change at quarterback.
Discussions about Cousins’ future can wait. We have fantasy football championships to win and I do believe Penix can help do it. This isn’t an inexperienced, younger starter taking over. Penix is In fact, Michael Penix is older than C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson, all of whom were drafted as top-four picks last season. In his final two seasons at Washington, Penix threw for 4,600 or more yards in each season and 67 total touchdown passes. He has a strong arm, takes care of the ball, and his supporting cast with the Atlanta Falcons is as good as it gets for a rookie. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson are all former top-eight NFL draft picks from the three years prior.
Penix is also walking into a home matchup against the New York Giants on Sunday. They’re planning to start Drew Lock at quarterback and are eyeing up the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. By no means am I comparing Michael Penix to Lamar Jackson, but Jackson just threw for 290 yards and five touchdowns on 25 attempts against the Giants just last week. I think the Falcons will lean on Bijan Robinson, with Tyler Allgeier continuing to mix in, against a weak Giants run defense. Allgeier is a high-upside plug-in player for those ravaged by running back injuries on their fantasy rosters.
As far as pass catchers go, I think Penix will look to target Drake London more often than not when he does throw. Kyle Pitts still carries more risk than I’d like for a semi-finals lineup, however, especially with an unknown amount of passing volume. Penix himself is a high-floor option in Superflex leagues, but I wouldn’t risk my season by starting him in a 1QB league.
More Quick-Hitting Risers
Brenton Strange has a top-five fantasy matchup for a tight end this week. That, plus the season-ending shoulder injury to Evan Engram, makes Strange a Week 16 riser. Last week, without Engram, Strange logged a career-high 12 targets. Sure, it’s a major outlier to what we’ve seen from Strange, but it’s necessary in an offense that lacks playmakers beyond rookie Brian Thomas Jr. The Jaguars will play a Raiders defense in Las Vegas that recently placed one of the league’s best pass rushers, Maxx Crosby, on Injured Reserve. That makes the matchup for Mac Jones and Jacksonville’s passing game a little easier to invest in for the fantasy football semi-finals.
Jakobi Meyers is a Week 16 riser with the likelihood that quarterback Aidan O’Connell should be back as the starter after missing last week with a knee injury. Meyers has played in three of O’Connell’s four starts this season. In those three games, he’s logged 36 total targets with at least 10 in each. Meyers recorded 121, 97, and 67 receiving yards respectively in each, as well. I know I have two players on the Week 16 risers list in a game between the 3-11 Jaguars and 2-12 Raiders. However, the volume and matchup for Meyers is too good to ignore. The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Besides rookie phenom tight end Brock Bowers, it’s Jakobi Meyers that O’Connell will be looking to throw to.
Kendre Miller looks like he will assume lead back duties on Monday Night Football for New Orleans. That’s with the assumption that Alvin Kamara doesn’t push through a groin injury to take the field for the 5-9 Saints. Miller hasn’t had many opportunities to start in just 12 games played over his first two seasons. However, he did log 240 touches for 1,515 total yards and 17 touchdowns in his final season at TCU. He’s no stranger to a heavy workload. The only concern here is if the Saints fall behind to the Packers quickly whether or not Miller will draw targets in a negative game script. For some, there’s no choice but to start Miller in Week 16. For others, he’s a Week 16 riser as far as volume goes but isn’t a must-start if you happen to have other trustworthy options.
Fallers
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Volume doesn’t always bring success in fantasy football. It’s worthwhile to invest in, of course, because it gives a player more opportunities to score points. However, with an average of eight targets per game over his last four, Marvin Harrison Jr. has failed to score 9.0 PPR fantasy points in three of them. Harrison Jr. is averaging just 6.92 targets per game across the 13 games he started and finished completely. He has failed to reach 9.0 PPR fantasy points in seven of them. If Harrison Jr. hasn’t scored a touchdown, he hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points in those weeks.
As far as Week 16 goes, the Cardinals are heading to Carolina to take on the 3-11 Panthers. Carolina is much more susceptible to getting beaten on the ground this season. The Panthers have allowed 173.0 rushing yards per game. That’s the most allowed on a per-game average in the league. The next closest team, the New York Giants, has allowed 143.0 rushing yards per game. It’s extremely possible the Cardinals take advantage of the Panthers’ biggest weakness and let James Conner run wild. Arizona’s playoff hopes are on the line. They can’t afford a loss and beating the Panthers happens on the ground.
That doesn’t mean the Cardinals aren’t going to pass at all, but if they jump out to a lead, and a large one, they’ll likely limit their attack through the air to kill the clock and get away with a road win. That said, if Marvin Harrison isn’t involved early, it could be another week of less than 9.0 fantasy points for the rookie receiver. Arizona’s team leader in targets this season, tight end Trey McBride, has 51 total targets over his last four games with at least 10 in each. He has 116 targets this season and has yet to score a receiving touchdown. The Carolina Panthers have allowed a league-high 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Just saying!
More Quick-Hitting Fallers
Jerry Jeudy may be a lineup lock for some fantasy football teams who don’t have many other options at wide receiver. You could do a lot worse than a player who ranks inside the top five in receiving yards. The worry here, however, is the quarterback change. Jeudy’s stock rose greatly with Jameis Winston taking over for Deshaun Watson. Now the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson as Winston has come back down to Earth. Thompson-Robinson has never shown he can get the ball downfield the way Winston can. If you’re going to start a Browns pass catcher, it’s Jeudy. The matchup against the Bengals is definitely one of the better ones for opposing wide receivers, as well.
Cade Otton is averaging 4.25 targets per game since Mike Evans returned from injury in Week 12. He’s caught just 10 total passes in that time for an average of 36 receiving yards per game. If you have him on your roster, you also know he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 9, as well. Otton is a Week 16 faller for these reasons as well as the matchup ahead. He faces a Cowboys defense in Dallas that’s allowed just 43 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. They’ve allowed less than four receptions per game, as well. Otton is no longer a set-and-forget option. It may feel…strange…but there’s a legitimate case to starting Week 16 riser Brenton Strange over Otton based on expected volume in a better matchup.
Amari Cooper did not draw a target in Week 15. That’s after drawing 14 targets in Week 14. The Buffalo Bills scored 42 or more points in each game, as well. Week 15 was a weird one for Josh Allen. Running back Ty Johnson led the way in receiving with five catches for 114 yards. He targeted nine different players, though, none of which were Cooper. Especially with rookie Keon Coleman back in the mix from injury, Cooper is that much more of a Week 16 faller.
The Week 16 Hot Seat
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
As I mentioned last week with A.J. Brown on the Week 15 hot seat, being here doesn’t necessarily mean the player should be benched in fantasy football lineups. Rather, the player on the hot seat has a ton of pressure to perform in the week ahead from a fantasy football perspective. There’s no player more fitting for the Week 16 hot seat than Cooper Kupp after he laid an egg on Thursday Night Football to open the fantasy football playoffs. I know what you’re thinking: most teams with Cooper Kupp are probably out of the playoffs! Wrong. I know this because some of my teams still managed to lose to those with Cooper Kupp thanks to heroics from others such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Davante Adams, and others. No, I’m not bitter, but thanks for checking in.
Anyway, Cooper Kupp and the Rams head to the East Coast to play the Jets in Week 16. Puka Nacua is the clear top target in the Rams’ passing game. He’s averaging roughly 10 targets per game, when active, since the Rams’ bye. He is just 11 total targets behind Kupp for the team lead this season. That’s despite playing one less full game and exiting Week 1 early. Nacua has 97 receiving yards in five of his last six games played, topping 117 in three of them. He should draw a combination of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed in Week 16. That leaves a more advantageous matchup of Isaiah Oliver and Michael Carter to attempt to cover Cooper Kupp.
Each week is a new week. For some, this could be your last week. However, if you’re still fighting for your league’s title and survived the zero points in your lineup from Cooper Kupp, don’t hold it against him. Despite the poor performance, in which Matthew Stafford threw for his second-lowest yardage total of the season (160), the Rams still came away with a win. Kupp is still a strong start in the fantasy football semi-finals as the Rams continue a playoff push of their own.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!