We all love to hype up the players who can take steps forward in Fantasy Football for the coming season, but we don’t often do the opposite. Which players could take a step backward? It is easy to speak about progression, and many will avoid the topic of regression.
Looking at the 2025 Fantasy Football production of the wide receiver landscape, I have identified players who finished inside the Top 30 wide receivers but could regress in 2026. This does not mean they will all “bust” or that you should completely avoid these players, but I do believe their Fantasy Football finish in 2025 will take a hit in 2026. There will be plenty of context provided, and this will be great to reflect on at the end of the 2026 season. Let’s get it!
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2026 Fantasy Football WR Regression Candidates
George Pickens (WR, Cowboys)
2025 Fantasy Football Finish: WR5
George Pickens had an explosive first season with the Cowboys, catching 93 of his 137 targets for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns. Pickens’ two biggest Fantasy weeks of the year came in Week 4 (33.4 Fantasy Points) and Week 6 (31.8 Fantasy Points) where he produced 134 then 168 yards and three total touchdowns in those games. Two games that CeeDee Lamb missed due to injury. Of the top seven Fantasy Football performances for Pickens in 2025, three of those came in games Lamb did not play at all or played under 10% of the snaps. Pickens had a great season and produced plenty of Fantasy upside in games that Lamb was healthy, but there is some context to some of the spike weeks.
Dak Prescott will continue to sling it in 2026 to his elite trio of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. I do expect Lamb to operate as the alpha, though, who, back in 2023, produced 1,749 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Pickens will still be a high-upside Fantasy Football receiver to roster, who will have a solid 2026 season, but the ceiling is much different with a full season of a healthy Lamb.
Davante Adams (WR, Rams)
2025 Fantasy Football Finish: WR9
Matthew Stafford threw 46 passing touchdowns in 2025, and 14 of those went to Davante Adams. Stafford’s passing touchdown total, along with Adams’ receiving touchdown totals, elevated both of them for Fantasy Football, but neither feels sustainable. Stafford passed for under 25 touchdowns in the two seasons before 2025, and Adams finished with under nine receiving touchdowns in the two seasons before.
Adams earned 30 fewer targets in 2025 than he did in 2024, while playing the same number of games. Adams also caught 25 fewer balls and produced his lowest receiving yard total since 2015. Adams finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in both yards per target and yards per reception in 2025. Adams is 33 years old, and while he still has some “juice”, I think that juice continues to drain in 2026. He will be solid, but I am not going to bank on the same touchdown production, which, if changed, would have been a big hit to his Fantasy production in 2025.
Michael Wilson (WR, Cardinals)
2025 Fantasy Football Finish: WR10
Michael Wilson had a breakout 2025 season, catching 78 of his 126 targets for 1,006 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. There was plenty of context to this, though. Marvin Harrison Jr. dealt with multiple injuries last season, and in the nine games Harrison was healthy, he out-scored Wilson in Fantasy Football in eight of them. The Cardinals also led the league in passing attempts last season, partially due to a poor defense that created game scripts through the air, and also the lack of a run game.
For 2026, Marvin Harrison Jr. should enter the season healthy and is a breakout candidate himself. The Cardinals might not do a 180 with their defense, but they did have a defensive line overhaul this offseason. Elite prospect Jeremiyah Love was drafted after the Cardinals signed Tyler Allgeier in Free Agency, with James Conner still rostered, which means they can have an actual run game. I will not take away the big performances from Wilson, but they feel like the product of situational boosts. Wilson did not produce above 8.8 Fantasy PPG in the two seasons before 2025, with career-high’s of 47 receptions (2024) and 565 receiving yards (2023).
Courtland Sutton (WR, Broncos)
2025 Fantasy Football Finish – WR13
Sutton managed a solid 2025 Fantasy Football campaign, despite the regressions that were evident from 2024. In 2025, he earned nine fewer targets, caught seven fewer passes, produced 64 fewer receiving yards, caught one fewer touchdown, and averaged 1.2 fewer Fantasy Points. We also saw flashes from all of Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, and Marvin Mims Jr. through both the regular season and the NFL Playoffs. Sutton is currently 30 years old.
The Broncos made a major move for Jaylen Waddle (and a 2026 fourth-round pick) this offseason, sending the 30th overall pick from the 2026 NFL Draft, a 2026 third-round pick, and a 2026 fourth-round pick. Waddle has finished three seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards through five NFL seasons, with a high of 1,356 back in 2022. This is the team’s new WR1. All of Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, and Marvin Mims Jr. can continue to factor in, with the strong possibility that one of these guys takes a big step forward in 2026. While Bo Nix will continue to sling it, the regression signs from 2025, along with the competition for targets in 2026, should be a big hit to Sutton.
Alec Pierce (WR, Colts)
2025 Fantasy Football Finish: WR28
After leading the Colts in 2024 with 824 receiving yards, Alec Pierce had an even bigger 2025 season, catching 47 of his 84 targets for 1,003 receiving yards. While Michael Pittman Jr. departed to become a Steeler, Pierce was extended on a four-year, $114 million deal. Pierce has had back-to-back seasons with an elite yards per reception mark at 22.3, then 21.3. While there are vacated targets and a big payday to factor in for 2026, there are multiple concerns at the same time:
- Of the Top 40 Fantasy Football wide receivers in 2025, Pierce is the only one to catch under 50 balls
- Even though targets are vacated from MPJ, and Pierce was paid, he has never proven to be a true target earner. Pierce’s 84 targets in 2025 ranked 43rd for the position and were a career-high for him
- While Pierce has been a monster in the yards per reception number category, banking on sustaining that efficiency every year feels concerning
- Pierce underwent surgery on his left ankle in March of 2026, with a projected 4-6 month recovery timeline. Daniel Jones is also coming off an Achilles tear
- Jonathan Taylor led the league with 323 rushing attempts last season
- Tyler Warren (112) and Josh Downs (88) both out-targeted Pierce. Downs did play one more game, but those two could do the same in 2026
Pierce is a solid FLEX player, but with these factors, we can see his overall Fantasy Football finish take a hit in 2026.
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