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College Fantasy Football: Week 11 Sleepers

If you are reading this article after 10 weeks of the regular season, congratulations are in order on reaching the College Fantasy Football playoffs. I’m sure most readers are still alive for a championship and looking for lineup and roster advice for the final three weeks of the campaign.

This late in the season, we switch our focus from the waiver wire to weekly sleepers for CFF coaches. (Full disclosure: I finished the regular season 108-72 and earned a playoff spot in 8 of 11 leagues.) In some of my leagues, I will also be seeking to acquire potential fantasy-point producers this week. Anderson Brookhart, Steve Jackson, Thomas Johnson, and I are identifying players with matchups that could deliver a cornucopia of fantasy points. Let’s win those CFF rings over the final three weeks of the campaign.

Quarterbacks

Isaiah Marshall, Kansas at West Virginia (Laub)

Fantrax Ownership: 19%
FPPG: 26.6
O/U 64.5, Kansas +2.5
Opposing Passing Defense: 322 P-ypg. & 23 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 77.3

When something is successful, there is no reason to change. I have placed quarterbacks and receivers into my CFF lineups against West Virginia all season, and why stop in the first week of the playoffs? The Mountaineers are the worst passing defense in the nation and, at times, look clueless trying to defend the ball in the air.

I have watched Thomas Castellanos (54.7 FPs), Jaden Craig (29.5 FPs), and JC French (44.7 FPs) tear up the West Virginia secondary, and Isaiah Marshall gets to play this sieve of a pass defense. As a bonus, Marshall is a good runner with 528 rushing yards and 4 scores on the ground. In his past four games, the Jayhawks’ signal caller has scored 119.5 fantasy points (FPs), averaging 29.8 FPPG. I expect another high-scoring affair between the programs, and Marshall will match Mountaineers’ quarterback Michael Hawkins’ production this week, which is fantasy gold.

Owen Eshelman, Washington State vs. Colorado State (Brookhart)

Fantrax Ownership: 22%
FPPG: 20.4
O/U 67.5, Washington State -9.5
Opposing Passing Defense: 271 P-yrds & 17 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 68.5

The best quarterback starts usually come down to identifying defenses that simply cannot stop the opposing offense. Owen Eshelman has one of the most favorable matchups on the schedule against Colorado State, which has struggled mightily to defend the pass. Through 9 games, the Rams have allowed 271 passing yards per game and 17 passing touchdowns, making them one of the most vulnerable passing defenses in the country. Colorado State has been equally vulnerable against the run, allowing 35 rushing touchdowns this season and 271 rushing yards per game. Eshelman has shown considerable fantasy upside since taking over the starting job, averaging approximately 260 passing yards per game over his 3 appearances. Even more encouraging is his rushing ability. He has added 203 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, giving him another avenue to produce fantasy points even when the passing offense struggles.

The matchup gets even more appealing with a 67.5-point over/under and Washington State favored by 9.5 points. This game could produce plenty of offensive scoring, and Colorado State’s defensive struggles should give Eshelman opportunities to capitalize through both the air and on the ground. With his rushing upside, a favorable matchup, and the potential for a high-scoring Washington State performance, Eshelman is an appealing quarterback this week.

Thomas Castellanos, Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State (Johnson)

Fantrax Ownership: 40%
FPPG: 17.5
O/U 68.5, Oklahoma State -2.5
Opposing Total Defense: 384 ypg. & 27.2 ppg.
PFF Grade: 75.5

Well, I hope you all listened to me last week, because Castellanos exceeded my wildest expectations, posting a modest 54.7 FPs and becoming the No. 1 P4 QB. If you were sweating out a playoff spot and snagged Castellanos, congratulations are in order. If for some insane reason you and your league mates didn’t trust Texas Tech to put up the numbers, I hope the proof is there for you now. Go and get him immediately, because his matchup this week is once again incredible. Oh, and those 54.7 FPs? All without a rushing TD. Incredible stuff. Enjoy!

Baylor Hayes, Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic (@CFF_Jacko)

Fantrax Ownership: 10%
FPPG: 24.5
O/U 71.5, Tulsa -5.5
Opposing Passing Defense: 219 P-ypg. & 16 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 66.8

A few weeks ago, I told readers to stash Baylor Hayes for the fantasy playoffs. The pitch was simple: buy before your league mates realize November is for sale with Tulane, FAU, Charlotte, and UTSA on the docket. That was the plan. Well, November is here.

Hayes just torched Tulane for 338 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 39.1 FPs. Now, he gets Florida Atlantic, which has become appointment television for CFF sickos. The Owls have hit the OVER in eight of nine games, and their last four have produced 89, 100, 89, and 89 points. Vegas is begging us to come back for more, hanging the week’s highest total on this one. We bought November. Now it’s time to use it. The matchup is here. The points are coming. This isn’t the time to get cute. Start your boy.


CFF Diehards on Fire!

Need a quarterback this week on the waiver wire? Who Ya Got?

  • Owen Eshelman, Washington State: 18%
  • Baylor Hayes, Tulsa: 14%
  • Isaiah Marshall, Kansas: 7%
  • Thomas Castellanos, Texas Tech: 61%

“Cast-Away for me. Hundred yards rushing and a touchdown is a pretty high floor.” @aceholesrule

“Tulsa playoff schedule is delicious.” @CFF_Jacko

“I’m going Tulsa stack here…Hayes to Singleton has popped, and they will need to be all gas to keep up with FAU this week!” @CambodianMilk_


Running Backs

Devonte Lyons, Florida International at Delaware (@CFF_Jacko)

Fantrax Ownership: 8%
FPPG: 12.0
O/U 53.5, FIU +5.5
Opposing Rush Defense: 139 R-ypg. & 16 TDs
PFF Grade: 76.3

Last week, Fantrax projected Devonte Lyons for 12.3 FPs. Over on my Substack, I made him my RB SMASH of the Week. He scored 38.8. Fantrax has him at 14.2 this week. Apparently, we’re doing this again.

Twenty-four carries. 216 yards. 2 touchdowns. Thank you, Devonte Lyons. But this has been building for a month. Lyons has piled up 534 rushing yards over his last five games. Nearly 70% of his rushing yards have come after contact, and he’s forced 29 missed tackles. FIU finally gave him 24 carries, and funny what happens when you give your best runner the damn football. You win. Fantrax wants me to believe we’re heading right back to 14 points? Nah. You know what to do. SMASH.

Ahmad Miller, Syracuse at North Carolina State (Johnson)

Fantrax Ownership: 22%
FPPG: 12.3
O/U 54.5, Syracuse -3.0
Opposing Rush Defense: 143 R-ypg & 12 TDs
PFF Grade: 82.0

I am counting this as my do-over for my swing-and-a-miss earlier this year on the Cuse RB room. Ahmad is the guy in this offense. That much is clear. He has been ripping since the Louisville game, with only one game in the last 4 weeks with fewer than 100 rushing yards. So let’s talk about matchups. North Carolina State’s defense is in the bottom 30 in the country in yards allowed per rush. They are in free fall as a program after firing Dave Doren. This matchup is so juicy for Ahmad I can’t pass it up. I’m projecting him as a top-5 P4 RB this week, so snag him up and enjoy the show.

L.J. Phillips, Iowa vs Purdue (Brookhart)

Fantrax Ownership: 17%
FPPG: 5.4
O/U 47.5, Iowa -17.5
Opposing Rush Defense: 171 R-ypg & 18 R-TDs
PFF Grade: 65.3

Sometimes, the best starting options are the players who finally get an opportunity to take control of their backfield. LJ Phillips is coming off his best performance in an Iowa uniform, rushing 21 times for 128 yards against Northwestern. After spending much of the season dealing with injuries and limited opportunities, and Kamari Moulton’s season-ending injury, Phillips appears to have established himself as the Hawkeyes’ primary ball carrier, making him an intriguing playoff option.

Purdue has been particularly vulnerable against the run, allowing 170.8 rushing yards per game and 18 rushing touchdowns. That matchup becomes even more appealing when you factor in Iowa’s 17.5-point spread. The Hawkeyes should have opportunities to control the game and lean heavily on their ground attack, creating a favorable game script for Phillips to accumulate carries. His 21 attempts against Northwestern demonstrate the workload he can handle. With a weak rushing defense and the potential for a comfortable Iowa victory, Phillips is an appealing low-ownership option who could deliver a strong fantasy performance.

Kiefer Sibley, New Mexico vs UNLV (Laub)

FPPG: 10.4
Fantrax Ownership: 9%
O/U 47.5, New Mexico -13.5
Opposing Rush Defense: 208 R-ypg. & 15 TDs
PFF Grade: 81.5

I must admit New Mexico games aren’t on my weekly “must-see contests” radar this season. I haven’t even seen a game, despite the Lobos’ 8-1 record and top perch in the Mountain West standings. New Mexico has surrendered only 98 points all season and barely lost to Oklahoma, 14-6, on September 16. The winning formula is an old maxim: run the football and play stout defense. Scottie Humphrey leads the backfield in carries (128), but Kiefer Sibley is close with 92.

Sibley has reached double-digit FPs in three consecutive games and five times this season. He averages 5.9 ypc and has grabbed 9 passes for 65 yards. Sibley’s fantasy ceiling is capped with Humphrey on the team. Nonetheless, Sibley will benefit from a great matchup against UNLV; both backs will produce rushing yards and fantasy points on the ground against a porous Rebels’ run defense. Sibley is a nice Flex option in CFF lineups on Saturday.


CFF Diehards on Fire!

Need a Flex player this week on the waiver wire? Who Ya Got?

  • Oran Singleton, Tulsa: 40%
  • Devonte Lyons, Florida International: 31%
  • Ahmad Miller, Syracuse: 17%
  • Josh Derry, UCF: 12%

“Oran Singleton for me! Been hot for a hot minute!” @aceholesrule

“Devonte Lyons: Smash of the week.” @CFF_Jacko


Wide Receivers

Oran Singleton, Tulsa vs. Florida Atlantic (Laub)

Fantrax Ownership: 33%
FPPG: 19.8
O/U 71.5, Tulsa -5.5
Opposing Passing Defense: 219 P-ypg. & 16 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 77.2

When my brothers and I went to my grandparents’ house to do chores, she’d give us a list of jobs to complete by the end of the day. We had to decide which one to do first. She always suggested we avoid the low-hanging fruit and do it last. Of course, we didn’t listen and did the easiest task first and the most difficult one last. I remembered her lesson when identifying Oran Singleton among my sleepers for Week 11: He seemed like low-hanging fruit in a contest against Florida Atlantic with an O/U over 70 points.

Against Tulane last Saturday, Singleton had a whopping 14 targets. He caught 13 of the throws for 177 yards and 3 touchdowns. It was his highest output of the campaign, scoring 48.7 FPs. In 3 of his 4 previous games, he exceeded 20 FPs and earned a season-best 17 targets versus North Texas on October 1. This season, the Golden Hurricanes’ playmaker is CFF WR16 with 56 catches for 712 yards and 7 scores. He is criminally underowned, still available in 67% of CFF leagues. Tulsa must keep up with Florida Atlantic and will often put the ball in the air. Grab Singleton off the waiver wire this week if possible.

Wayne Harris, Kent State at Bowling Green (Brookhart)

Fantrax Ownership: 42%
FPPG: 15.2
O/U 45.5, Kent State +6.0
Opposing Passing Defense: 165 P-yrds & 13 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 73.4

While Bowling Green has been relatively effective defending the pass, Harris’ recent workload and big-play ability make this matchup worth targeting. The sophomore receiver has established himself as Kent State’s primary receiving option, and his recent performances demonstrate just how high his ceiling can be. He’s recorded 122, 156, and 164 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games, including a 3-touchdown performance against Sacramento State.

Bowling Green’s defensive numbers are somewhat misleading, as the Falcons have been considerably more vulnerable against the run, allowing 212 rushing yards per game. However, their defense has surrendered 13 passing touchdowns through nine games, giving Harris opportunities to capitalize in the red zone. The 45.5-point O/U isn’t particularly encouraging, and Kent State enters as a 5.5-point underdog, which could force the Golden Flashes to throw to keep pace. Harris’ target volume, recent explosiveness, and established role in the passing offense make him an appealing start despite the tougher statistical matchup.

Landon Sides, East Carolina vs Charlotte (@CFF_Jacko)

Fantrax Ownership: 10%
FPPG: 14.5
O/U 45.5, East Carolina -11.5
Opposing Passing Defense: 263 P-ypg. & 18 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 70.4

Only one player in the country has more catches than Landon Sides over the last three weeks. Easton Messer has 35. Sides has 28. Fantrax ownership for Sides: 10%. What are we even doing here? Last week wasn’t the breakout. It was confirmation. Sides hauled in 14 balls for 126 yards and two touchdowns, accounting for nearly three out of every four ECU completions.

Somehow, the future gets even better. Charlotte spent a four-game stretch surrendering 1,301 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and ZERO interceptions. Oh, and Sides has been here before. Last season at North Texas, he visited Charlotte and left with a career-high 114 yards, including a 60-yard bomb. Hello, old friends. Twenty-eight catches. Charlotte next. Ten percent owned. Pls fix. Thx.

Josh Derry, UCF  vs. Arizona State (Johnson)

Fantrax Ownership: 17%
FPPG: 14.1
O/U 49.5, UCF -3.0
Opposing Passing Defense: 220 P-ypg. & 13 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 72.0

This is a deeper pull in a matchup that doesn’t immediately pop off the board for a high projected point total. Derry has been quietly consistent over the past 4 weeks, but concerns came into this week’s matchup that a change to Alonza Barnett would hurt his productivity. Well, the exact opposite happened. Derry had his best night of the year, and best of all, he did so on the back of 12 targets, close to a season high. He turned those into 8 catches for 143 yards and a TD.

These late-season breakouts tend to happen right under our noses, and it is clear to me that Derry is the top option in this offense. Even more impressive, he thrived with Barnett back in under center. This one is just my intuition screaming that Derry is going to come on like a bat out of hell, and I don’t want to miss it.

Tight Ends

Elija Lofton, Miami vs. Duke (@CFF_Jacko)

Fantrax Ownership: 29%
FPPG: 8.9
O/U 53.5, Miami -13.5
Opposing Passing Defense: 187 P-ypg. & 7 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 64.4

Malachi Toney is gone, and he accounted for roughly 35% of Miami’s receptions. That is a metric buttload of targets looking for a new home. In Miami’s first game without Toney, Lofton promptly delivered the best game of his career: 7-113-1. Coincidence? Maybe. I’m willing to find out.

Lofton was one overturned call away from something ridiculous. If his late-game fourth-down catch stands, Lofton finishes 8-131-2 for roughly 33 FPs, the third-highest TE score of the season. And apparently November Lofton is a thing. Last season, he scored in three straight games down the stretch. This November opened with 113 yards, one touchdown, and another one stolen by replay. Welcome back, Mr. November.

Kaleb Edwards, Alabama at Vanderbilt (Johnson)

Fantrax Ownership: 16%
FPPG: 6.4
O/U 52.5, Alabama -19.5
Opposing Passing Defense: 221 P-ypg & 15 P-TDs
PFF Grade: 66.6

If you haven’t been able to tell by now, I kept my sleepers to P4 players only, which made finding a TE sleeper especially difficult. I think I have found the ultimate late-season breakout candidate in Edwards. Starting TE Josh Ford was ruled out for the rest of this season with a knee injury against LSU. That opens the door for Edwards, to say the least.

QB Keelon Russell likes to spread the ball around, but against LSU, with more opportunity, Kaleb put up his best line of the year: 3 catches for 50 yards and a TD. With a full week of practice and a matchup against the weakest team in the SEC on deck? I couldn’t love his chances more to put up difference-maker numbers at a position that has been particularly bereft of usable options this fantasy season, especially at the P4 level.

CFF All-Americans: Week 10

  • QB Jackson Gutierrez, Navy: 61.1 Fantasy Points
  • QB Thomas Castellanos, Texas Tech: 54.7
  • RB Caleb Hawkins, Oklahoma State: 54.6
  • RB Dylan Riley, Boise State: 48.0
  • WR Oran Singleton, Tulsa: 48.7
  • WR Chance Morrow, Buffalo: 43.9
  • WR Easton Messer, Florida Atlantic: 40.8
  • TE Jelani Thurman, North Carolina: 25.4
  • Flex Nate Sheppard, Duke: 41.1

CFF Player of the Week: Jackson Gutierrez, Navy

John Laub
John Laub
With his Masters in history and professional experience as an educator, John Laub is uniquely qualified to research, analyze and discover new insights and trends in college and professional football. Laub has played fantasy football for thirty years and published articles for FootballDiehards.com for well over 20 years. He won $10,000 in 1993, defeating nearly 15,000 owners, and published Audibles: Winning is Everything in the 1990s. He is co-host of the DFSDudes and CFF: On Campus PodCasts. He truly is The Gridiron Scholar.

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