I’ll start with some words pertaining to Thursday Night Football. Let’s talk about the current state of the New York Giants. A disjointed locker room is a problem. An inept offensive line is also a worry. A quarterback with no ability to throw anything but screens pressured or not is the worst problem of the lot. Last season, according to Football Outsiders, Eli Manning ranked 29th in DVOA on throws with a clean pocket (out of 35 qualifying QBs). I can’t imagine much has changed since then. The Giants cannot be a competitive team until the QB position is upgraded. Every other issue on that team must come secondary to that if we’re being fair. I just wanted this to be clear if your approached by someone claiming anything else. Now that that’s out of the way we’ll do Week 6 main slate Starts and Sits.
Week 6 Starts and Sits
Start These Quarterbacks:
As a disclaimer I must say that this year there are a clear 12-16 QBs capable of a top-10 finish in any given week. These are, in my opinion, the least conspicuous of a number of obvious starts.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Winston returns to the starting lineup in a highly favorable matchup against the banged up Falcons defense. So far this season the Falcons have given up an astonishing 132 (vs Foles), 335, 396, 337, and 250 yards through the air in five games for an average of 290 yards/gm. That ties them for 22nd worst in the league on passing yardage gained alone.
But the worry doesn’t stop there. Over that same span the Falcons have given up 12 passing TDs, the third worst mark in the league. Winston should have no trouble carving up that banged up secondary and he’ll have to be heavily relied on as the Buccaneers have the worst ranked rushing offense in the NFL with only 278 yards on the ground to date at a paltry 3.1 yards/attempt. These two teams profile similarly as they have high flying offenses with liabilities defensively. Roll with Winston and the excellent targets in the Tampa Bay offense in this one.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills
Buffalo fields a top third defense versus both the pass and the run this season and must be given their due. Regardless of this fact, the impact that Deshaun Watson has on his team is undeniable. Aside from one fumble recovery for a touchdown and one RB rushing score Watson has been responsible for every one of his teams touchdowns so far this season. He’s also the Texans second leading rusher and averages a whopping 2 more yards per attempt than anyone else on the Texans team. So far, the Bills have allowed an average of 23.6 ppg this season. You can bet nearly every point the Texans score in this one will be at the hands and feet of Watson. Watson is also tied for the fourth-highest rushing success rate in the redzone per SharpStats. The Buffalo Bills are a bottom-third defense defending the run near their end zone.
Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
Phillip Rivers has, as he does most every year, quietly compiled his way to 1495 yards and 13 TDs (1st in the NFL) through the first five games of this NFL season. He is in a good environment and is producing some of the most efficient football he has displayed in his entire career. Some reasons for this are as follows
• He enjoys a top-third offensive line in terms of adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders
• Even without Hunter Henry, Rivers can utilize a multitude of excellent targets in Allen, Gordon, Ekeler, Williams, etc
• His defense has been relatively porous this season, resulting in the offense having to put up a relatively high number of points each game. (27.4ppg, 8th NFL)
Expect no different against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns defense is currently a bottom third unit and their best corner, rookie Denzel Ward, doesn’t often travel to the slot. Keenan Allen should be able to win early and often and Rivers should benefit from this plus matchup all day.
Sit These Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders vs Seattle Seahawks in London
The Seattle Seahawks have a top-third ranked defense and will face a Raider team struggling to create passing scores. To date, Derek Carr has only thrown for 1.4 TDs/game, 24th overall in the NFL. With a relatively conservative 47-point over under per the action network for this game, I wouldn’t expect fireworks from Carr again in this game.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Dak hasn’t sniffed the heights he reached in his rookie season this year and the rest of the Cowboys offense is in the same boat. Over five games Dak has only once thrown for multiple touchdowns and has yet to reach the 300-yard mark. He isn’t a safe play against most any defense at this point and that rings doubly true against one of the league’s best. The Jaguars rank third so far in passing yards allowed and have only surrendered three touchdowns through the air this season. As an additional point, it should also be noted that the floor Dak experienced with six rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons is no more as he is yet to find paydirt this year. Look elsewhere for a streaming QB option.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals
Cousins makes the sit list this week primarily because of the type of defense he faces in Week 6. Arizona is a run funnel defense and while they rank near the top third of the league in passing defense, they rank third worst in rushing yards allowed and dead last in rushing attempts faced. The likely scenario is that the Vikings get out to an early lead in this one and Cousins doesn’t see the volume he has in the first portion of the season as the Vikings run out the clock. Play Cousins with caution this week as he seems very likely to be a candidate for an early stay on the sidelines in a blowout.
Start These Running Backs
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
This may be a last hurrah for James Conner as the starting running back for the Steelers as rumor has Bell returning to the team during their Week 7 bye. The matchup in this one is enticing as the Bengals defense is hardly a shutdown unit, ranking near the bottom third in both the run and pass. As Conner is an all-purpose back that can find success both on the ground and as a receiver it would not be surprising for him to compile the numbers in a contest that should turn out to be high scoring and fairly even.
Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams
However you feel about the decision to involve Phillip Lindsay to the level that he’s been involved thus far after spending a third round pick on Royce Freeman is irrelevant now. Lindsay has earned a role, and as a plus athlete with 4.4 wheels its easy to see why. Lindsay has so far registered the seventh highest yard per carry number (5.2 yards) this season along with the sixth highest number of breakaway runs according to playerprofiler. Because of this level of efficiency, Lindsay has commanded an average of around 14 touches per game and should see a steady workload against the Rams defense. It should also be stated that while the Rams front does seem intimidating, they surrendered 184 yards to previously unheralded rushers Chris Carson and Mike Davis of the Seahawks last week. If the Broncos want to win moving forward they would be best served limiting the load they place on the shoulders of their turnover prone QB. They’ll attempt to do that this week.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets
We all saw last week how the Colts view their rookie running back. While primarily used as a passing outlet, Hines also saw 15 carries. While I don’t foresee this trend continuing, especially with Marlon Mack set to return to the Colts lineup this week, Hines has clearly established his role as the primary pass-catcher out of the backfield for this team. Quarterback Andrew Luck is currently leading the league with 49 pass attempts per game, which should continue to translate to tons of opportunities for Hines in this contest. The New York Jets are just a middle of the pack defense.
Sit These Running Backs
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
I understand that as a fantasy gamer guys like David Johnson are every week starters. I agree, regardless of inefficiency and misuse so far this year Johnson’s consistent ability to score touchdowns is still paying dividends even if the returns aren’t near the expected level. Still, this matchup against the Minnesota Vikings might be one to cause those who roster Johnson to at least consider other options. The Vikings haven’t allowed a rushing score so far this year and rank third in the league in yards allowed on the ground. They do, however, rank near the bottom of the league in passing defense. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a pass-heavy game plan from the Cardinals early. An early deficit would also force them to keep throwing against the Vikings defense. Under former HC Bruce Arians this wouldn’t be an issue for Johnson, but he has seen four or less targets in four straight games with his current coaching staff.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Much Like Johnson listed above, Elliott is another every-week starter that is set to run into a buzz saw defense in Week 6. The Jaguars boast a top-third run defense along with a top-three pass defense unit. Because of their duality, no obvious pass or run heavy offense is guaranteed to work well against them. Still, the well documented struggles of QB Dak Prescott and the receivers in Dallas would leave rushing as the Cowboy’s main option and that reality is as clear to the Jaguars as it is everyone else. Expect a number of loaded boxes and single high looks in this one. I wouldn’t put it past Elliott to score, but I think this will be another game where Elliott plays closer to his floor than ceiling.
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears
The addition of Khalil Mack turned an already talented Chicago Bears defense into arguably the best in the league. So far this season the Bears are the number one defense against the run and a top five unit against the pass. When it comes to Kenyan Drake, these aren’t even the most damning issues he’ll face this week. Head Coach Adam Gase has yet to trust Drake with a full workload and he has been limited to under 15 carries in every game this season and has seen fewer than 15 total touches in four of five games this season. Even after last week’s receiving outburst Drake cannot reasonably be trusted as anything more than an RB3, even before you factor in the great defense Miami will face this week.
Start This Wideout
Chester Rogers, Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets
As he has been for the last two weeks, Chester Rogers is a sneaky start in Week 6 against the New York Jets. Rogers has been filling the role of the injured T.Y. Hilton admirably and will continue to do so in this contest. In the last two weeks, Rogers has seen 11 targets a game. He’s pulled in eight of those each game for double digit fantasy days in PPR leagues. As long as Luck continues to lead the league in passing attempts to a depleted receiving corps Rogers will continue to benefit and should be started with confidence. Rogers does, have yet to pull in a score however.
Sit This Wideout
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders vs Seattle Seahawks in London
The quintessential on-again off-again start, Cooper has been a hard player to predict game to game. While he dealt with some struggles last year efficiency-wise, we’ve seen an inconsistent target-share this year, which, in my opinion is even more concerning. Over the past five games, Cooper has recorded 3, 10, 5, 12, and 1 target. This understood, it is clear that Cooper isn’t a sure bet any given week and I think he struggles against Seattle’s top-third pass defense. It should also be noted that Seattle has the second most interceptions in the league so far (with 9) and could cause Derek Carr to make some bad decisions come Sunday. I’d look elsewhere for a starting WR this week.
Start This TE
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets
With Jack Doyle out, Eric Ebron has assumed the role of the number one target in the Colts offense and has looked good doing it. Coming off a two touchdown performance in last weeks game, Ebron will again be the primary beneficiary of a pass happy team unable to properly establish the run. Assuming he plays as he did miss two practices this week I believe it is safe to pencil in Ebron as a TE1 again this week.
Sit this TE
Trey Burton, Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins
Minkah Fitzpatrick is the primary reason I downgrade Trey Burton this week though it isn’t the only one. I still have reservations about the quality of QB Mitch Trubisky and understand that the Miami Dolphins defense, as a whole, is several levels greater than the Tampa Bay defense that surrendered six passing TDs in Chicago’s last game. If Burton is schemed in early, I could see him pull down a score, but I don’t think its likely against a defense allowing the fifth fewest points to TEs this year.
Start These Defenses
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys
LA Rams @ Denver Broncos
San Franciso 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Sit These Defenses
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Agree? Think I’m nuts? Have a comment? Let me know on twitter @FF_Wonderkid
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