Week 5 is the first of the NFL season to incorporate scheduled byes, and could not come at a worse time for many fantasy owners who were dealt significant injury blows to their running backs in Week 4. Vikings’ running back Dalvin Cook tore his ACL and is out for the season, ending what started out as a spectacular rookie year. Chris Carson suffered a fractured leg and high ankle sprain and was placed on injured reserve. (True story – I dropped Cam Newton and picked up Carson last week. Sigh.) Ty Montgomery barely played in Week 4 after suffering multiple broken ribs, though he hopes to be able to play this Sunday. In addition to these injured running backs, three of the top 13 year-to-date scorers among running backs (Devonta Freeman, Chris Thompson, C.J. Anderson) are on a bye this week. Other options such as Tevin Coleman and Mark Ingram have byes as well. Many fantasy owners had to scour the waiver wire this week or spend some of their Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) money to fill their rosters with running back fliers, such as New York Giants rookie Wayne Gallman. In order to try to navigate the minefield that is the current running back landscape, let’s take a look at some of the key Week 5 matchups to keep an eye on.
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS:
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens – Marshawn Lynch has predictably failed to live up to unrealistic preseason expectations that resulted in many fantasy owners reaching for Lynch in the second round of drafts. However, Week 5 does present an opportunity for Lynch and his owners to benefit. Lynch and the Oakland Raiders will face the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s recent offensive struggles are well documented, but their run defense has sprung some recent leaks as well. Baltimore has allowed 322 rushing yards and three touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last two contests. This freefall has coincided with the loss of defensive lineman Brandon Williams, who is not scheduled to return to action this week. With the Raiders being forced to turn to backup quarterback E.J. Manuel following Derek Carr’s injury, I expect Marshawn Lynch to get the ball early and often. Lynch has averaged just over 11 carries per game, but I think it’s likely he gets 20 carries this week. With many running backs unavailable or splitting carries, I think Marshawn Lynch is in line for a top-12 finish in Week 5. It would be his first such finish of 2017.
Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears – Latavius Murray signed a three-year, $15 million contract in the offseason with the Minnesota Vikings. It was presumed at that time that Murray would handle the bulk of the Vikings’ rushing workload. Minnesota then drafted Dalvin Cook, and Murray’s role quickly changed. It was evident throughout training camp and the preseason that Cook was the better back, and Murray was relegated to backup duties. Through the first three weeks of the season, Murray saw the field for just 17 snaps and totaled the same number of yards. Following Cook’s torn ACL, however, Murray will be thrust back into a featured role. Murray did finish 2016 as the overall RB13, so he has shown the ability to make an impact. I don’t expect him to live up to that billing going forward, but I do think he has a chance to reach that level of production this week. His Week 5 matchup is not particularly imposing against the Chicago Bears and is enhanced by the suspension of Bears’ leading tackler, inside linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Bears will likely turn to Christian Jones in Trevathan’s absence. Jones was primarily a special-teams player before injuries to Jerrell Freeman and Nick Kwiatkoski forced Jones into a more significant role. I like Latavius Murray’s chances of putting up RB2 numbers in Week 5.
James White, New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – James White makes for an intriguing option at running back in Week 5. White’s New England Patriots head down to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers on Thursday night. Tampa Bay has been very stingy on the ground this season, allowing running backs just 2.72 yards per carry through three games. However, they have had problems defending pass-catching running backs. So far in 2017, they have ceded a completion rate of 83.3 percent on passes intended to opposing running backs. This was an area of weakness for Tampa Bay in 2016 as well. Last season, the Buccaneers permitted 78.3 percent of passes to be completed to opposing running backs. This is a facet of the game in which James White does the vast majority of his damage, having had more receptions than carries in each season dating back to 2015. White has yet to hit pay dirt on the season, but he has had at least 10 touches in three out of four games. This game should be a high-scoring affair, and New England has the highest implied team total based on Vegas odds. New England would be best served to employ a fast-paced offensive attack rather than relying on Mike Gillislee against a stout Buccaneers’ run defense. With Rob Gronkowski questionable to play, I expect White to be heavily targeted in this game. I believe James White finishes as an RB2 in this matchup.
UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills – Joe Mixon was in a prime spot to capitalize on his increased role in Bill Lazor’s offense last week. He had what was considered a good matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Mixon responded with just 29 rushing yards on 17 carries, stumbling to an overall finish of RB43. If that sounds bad, it is. It also is on par with Mixon’s year-to-date output, as he currently ranks as just the overall RB42 on the young season. Nothing about Mixon’s Week 5 matchup suggests a breakout performance is on tap. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 13.5 points per game this season. That is the best mark in the NFL. Mixon has averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on the young season, often looking hesitant to attack running lanes. He’s had only50 total yards in one of his four games so far in his rookie season. Given that bye weeks are now upon us and the injury bug has hit several running backs already, owners of Joe Mixon may have no other choice than to play him in the hopes that his volume buoys his production. But expectations should be tempered for him in this matchup. I view Joe Mixon as a Flex option only this week.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions – The Carolina Panthers’ rushing attack has not been effective despite some seemingly easy matchups to begin the season. Some of the opposing defenses that Carolina has faced have been more difficult than preseason prognosticators had believed. Still, Christian McCaffrey enters Week 5 as just the overall RB31 so far in 2017. He has finished as a fantasy RB2 in only one game to this point, and he has still not scored his first NFL touchdown. Perhaps more worrisome is that McCaffrey has done very little in the running game. He has just 89 rushing yards on the season, ranking him 48th among running backs. Even worse, McCaffrey would be tied for ninth among quarterbacks in rushing yards. He hasn’t exceeded 16 rushing yards since Week 1 and has only eclipsed 40 receiving yards in one game. Carolina faces the Detroit Lions in Week 5 in what should be a physical, low-scoring affair. Both teams have allowed just 17.5 points per game, tops in the NFC. I don’t see Christian McCaffrey being involved very much in this contest. I view him as merely a PPR Flex option this week.
LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals – LeGarrette Blount finally broke out in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Last year’s leader in rushing touchdowns did not score in Week 4, but he did rush 16 times for 136 yards. He even added a 20-yard reception. However, I do not see a repeat performance taking place in Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has allowed just 2.98 yards per carry to enemy running backs, good for the third-lowest in the NFL this season. They’ve also permitted an NFL-low 5.09 yards per reception to enemy backs. Fellow Eagles’ running backs Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement are likely to cut into Blount’s workload in any given week. Each earned 10 carries each in Philadelphia’s victory last week. Smallwood did miss Wednesday’s practice due to a knee issue. If he were to miss this game, I’d feel more comfortable using Blount. As things currently stand, however, I don’t see LeGarrette Blount getting into any sort of rhythm in this matchup. I’d look elsewhere to fill my RB2 slot in Week 5.
SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
Wayne Gallman, New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Chargers – After being a healthy scratch for the first three games, Wayne Gallman finally got an opportunity to play in Week 4 and acquitted himself quite well. He had 11 carries for 42 yards and scored his first NFL touchdown on a reception from Eli Manning. Gallman’s workload was likely increased due to Paul Perkins’ early exit following a rib injury. Perkins practiced on Wednesday and hopes to play in this game. Even if Perkins plays, however, the fact remains that he simply isn’t very good. Perkins has just 61 rushing yards on 32 carries this season, averaging a putrid 1.9 yards per carry. I think it’s very noteworthy that Gallman had more carries in the second half of Week 4 (10) than Perkins has had in any game this season. I think the Giants see the writing on the wall and will utilize Gallman more going forward. Week 5 would be a great time to start. New York’s opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, has given up the most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. They’ve been gashed for 6.75 yards per carry to running backs over the last two weeks. If you picked up Wayne Gallman this week, do not hesitate to insert him into your Week 5 lineup.
Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders – Based on the last two weeks, Alex Collins has the potential to be a huge fantasy asset going forward. He has the ninth-most rushing yards in the NFL over his last two games despite getting just 18 carries over that span. He has identical stat lines of nine carries and 82 rushing yards in consecutive weeks. Collins leads the Ravens in rushing despite sitting third in carries behind Javorius “Buck” Allen and Terrance West. Allen and West have each had opportunities to be Baltimore’s featured back, but have failed to impress. It may be Collins’ turn to see what he can do if given a larger role. However, it must be noted that Collins has already lost two fumbles this season. Head coach John Harbaugh has indicated he’s “not going to tolerate” fumbling and that Collins’ leash may be short. If he can hang on to the football, Collins could be in line for another solid game in Week 5. He faces an Oakland Raiders defense that has allowed an average of 120 rushing yards per game, ninth-worst in the NFL. Collins has a very low floor due to his fumbling issues, but he also has a pretty high ceiling. He is a boom or bust Flex option in Week 5.