We often discuss targets to buy low and sell high on in dynasty trades, but occasionally there are dynasty football buys who are worth their current dynasty value and more. These are generally players who have shown their talent and are already priced high, but perhaps they have yet to reach peak value even so. I like to think of them as buy-high targets.
A couple of good examples from last year are D.J. Moore and Chris Godwin. Both received plenty of hype last offseason and were already valued as early first-round rookie picks, but both wide receivers exceeded expectations in 2019 and made their previous cost look cheap by comparison. Here are some dynasty football buys who are already valued highly but well-worth their acquisition cost with room to increase in value. ADP data is as of August courtesy of Dynasty League Football.
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Players to Buy High on in Dynasty Football
George Kittle – Overall ADP of 21 – TE1
Kittle is properly valued in positional rankings as the top tight end in dynasty formats, but his availability in the late second round of dynasty startup drafts in overall ADP is criminally low. Since his sophomore breakout season, Kittle has been an elite fantasy tight end at a position with a ton of volatility outside of the top tier. Kittle was the No. 3 fantasy tight end in 2018 and the no. 4 tight end in 2019 despite missing two games with a knee injury (no. 2 tight end in points per game).
Compared against fantasy production from top wide receivers, Kittle would’ve ranked as the WR14 last season and the WR15 in 2018. With the wide receiver position deeper than ever, near-WR1 production from the tight end position is an immense weekly positional advantage. At just 26 years old, Kittle is in his prime and will give dynasty rosters the edge needed to surpass other top teams in the fantasy playoffs for years to come.
And consider the fact that Kittle could substantially eclipse his 2019 production this season. Kittle produced elite fantasy numbers and averaged the third-most targets per game among tight ends despite San Francisco being the second-most run-heavy team in the league, throwing on just 49 percent of their offensive plays. And though Kittle ranked fourth in red-zone targets last year at his position, he scored just two touchdowns (tied for 15th among tight ends) with three scores called back due to penalty. I have Kittle listed at No. 6 overall in my latest dynasty rankings given the positional advantage he offers as well as the fact that we may have yet to see his most productive seasons. That makes him maybe the most high profile of my buy-high targets.
Jonathan Taylor – Overall ADP of 13 – RB10
Many are skeptical to spend first-round draft capital in a dynasty startup draft on a rookie running back who has yet to play a single snap in the NFL. And yet, fellow rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is already being drafted fifth overall in dynasty startups. There seems to be a discrepancy in their startup value despite many taking Taylor at the 1.01 in rookie drafts over Edwards-Helaire not so long ago.
With Damien Williams having opted out of the 2020 season, Edwards-Helaire is primed to step into an immediate role in the high-powered Kansas City offense. But Marlon Mack is little more than a road bump for the dynamic rookie prospect, and even if the Colts continue to work Mack in on series in 2020, he’s a free agent after this year. Taylor will assume control of this backfield and run behind the best offensive line in the league for the foreseeable future. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see Taylor being drafted alongside Edwards-Helaire as a top-five overall dynasty pick by this time next year.
I have Taylor ranked at 12th overall in my dynasty rankings, just one spot ahead of his current ADP. However, I have Taylor as my dynasty RB5 ahead of popular names like Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon. These running backs are all talented and deserving of high valuation in dynasty, but there’s also uncertainty for each, as none of the three have yet to be extended by their current teams and could join a large class of free-agent running backs in 2021. Taylor’s secure role in Indianapolis is what vaults him over these aforementioned backs in my dynasty rankings. I wouldn’t hesitate to offer any of them straight up for Taylor or even throw in a minor draft pick or prospect on top, as that could be enough to acquire him in many leagues.
Mike Evans – Overall ADP of 27 – WR8
I’ve gone on record plenty this offseason as being incredibly bullish on the Buccaneers with Tom Brady in town. Like Kittle, Evans is already highly valued in positional rankings as a top-10 dynasty wide receiver, but his ADP of 27th overall is a huge discount. Since entering the league in 2014, Evans has averaged over 1,200 receiving yards per year and has tied Randy Moss for the most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons by a wide receiver to start a career.
Evans ranked sixth in DYAR in 2019 among wide receivers, and while teammate Chris Godwin ranked second in DYAR last year, many dynasty players are not accounting for the fact that Godwin’s rookie contract expires after the 2020 season. Tampa Bay could use the franchise tag on Godwin next year, but there’s a fair chance that he will be playing in a different uniform in 2021, as the Buccaneers currently have the least salary cap space in the league and still need to extend star pass-rusher, Shaquil Barrett.
Evans looks to be the alpha in Tampa Bay long-term with his current contract running through 2023. And there’s a distinct possibility that one or more of Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate could be gone by 2021 as well, freeing up a massive target share for Evans. I have Evans ranked eighth overall in dynasty as the No. 4 wide receiver behind only Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, and DeAndre Hopkins.
Are you onboard with Meng’s buy-high targets? If so, you’ll definitely want to check out Ron Rigney’s piece helping you with those tough keeper decisions.
For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng. Also, check back for more, as we’ll be covering the dynasty football angle year-round.
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