The NFL season is right around the corner, and strength of schedule is one of the most commonly used metrics to help drafters decide in August and early September. Strength of schedule is a useful tool for judging who could find themselves in more favorable situations more often. That can help managers decide between two players who sit similarly on draft boards. With little to no streaming options available at running back, strength of schedule will be most useful to managers during drafts. And a familiar face finds himself at the top of the list.
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Running Backs with the Best Fantasy Schedules
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
The first overall pick in fantasy drafts also has one of the best schedules at running back. Jahmyr Gibbs has the chance to approach some fantasy records if everything breaks his way. David Montgomery is now on the Houston Texans. The team then brought in Isaiah Pacheco to be his new backup. And it’s safe to assume he will not take on the same role Montgomery did in Detroit. Montgomery had 158 carries last year and was on the field for 37.3% of the Lions’ snaps. I expect that number to dip into the low 30s, or even the high 20s, for Pacheco, leaving more valuable opportunities for Gibbs. And the most important ones, too. Isaiah Pacheco got zero carries inside the three-yard line, while David Montgomery received 13 carries inside the three. If those opportunities land with Gibbs, he can somehow improve on his 18 touchdowns in 2025.
His schedule is the highlight, with it arguably being the best at running back, with matchups against the Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals, and New York Jets all in the first four weeks. All three teams were top seven in fantasy points allowed to running backs this past year. Gibbs also has the New York Giants on the schedule for the fantasy football playoffs in Week 16. With a great schedule, offensive environment, and improved opportunities, Gibbs is the unquestioned first pick in drafts this year.
Concerns for the 1.01
My only concerns are Cade Mays being out for 8 to 10 weeks and Drew Petzing, the new offensive coordinator, coming from the Arizona Cardinals. Mays was supposed to provide stability for the Detroit Lions in the post Frank Ragnow era. Now he will miss the start of the season at a position the Lions were struggling to fill last year. So much so that they tried to bring Ragnow out of retirement, but he failed his physical. For now, Juice Scruggs will fill it at center. Scruggs was rated 78th out of 81 guards on PFF last year. The transition to center could help Scruggs in the long run. However, before any game action, we have to treat that as a major downgrade from Mays.
As for Petzing, he is coming from a Cardinals team that had the fewest rushing attempts in the league last year. And yes, they were down in basically every game they played, so that contributed. On the bright side, they had the seventh-most passing yards per game and the third-most targets to the running back position, led by Michael Carter and Bam Knight. So, it is realistic that Gibbs could lead the position in targets this season. Alleviating the concerns, he is the no-brainer pick at first overall, even over Bijan Robinson. Gibbs wins most of the tiebreakers, especially the better schedule at the running back position. And it is a no-brainer to draft Gibbs with confidence where you can this season.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
The second Eagle to make these lists, and he likely won’t be the last. The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the easiest schedules this season in the league. Barkley benefits from his division opponents, just like Jalen Hurts. All three of his division opponents that he will get to see twice were top six in fantasy points allowed to the position. Late-season games against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers prop that schedule up even more. The only problem is the games against the Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans, and that will be a problem for every Eagle.
However, a healthy offensive line will do wonders for Barkley, as Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens received stem cell treatment for their injuries that bothered them last season. The team will also get Lane Johnson back for one last ride after missing him for most of last season. I don’t know if the rushing attack can capture the magic of 2024, but even 75% would give Barkley a top-five fantasy season. He is a target in round two of drafts as we near the season. Especially with one of the best running back schedules aiding Barkley’s case as a draft pick.
Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks
A first-round pick this past April. Price has vaulted up boards thanks to draft capital and television coverage of the Seahawks’ mini camp, where he did nothing but impress. Having first-round draft capital and impressing, along with having one of the best fantasy schedules at the running back position, is the reason why Price is going in the fifth round of drafts currently.
The big concern with Price is what percentage of the workload he will get. Seattle only gave Kenneth Walker 43% of the carries in the regular season. Charbonnet had 36% of the carries for the Seahawks, and while he is coming off an injury, he is still on the team. Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in the divisional round of the playoffs in mid January. The timetable for his return could be anywhere from Week 1 to midseason. And that is not accounting for the fact that he will have to return to form. These injuries usually take around a year to fully heal, so Price should lead a committee no matter how it shakes out for Charbonnet.
An early-season schedule that has the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders in the first three weeks. Coupled with a five-game stretch leading up to the fantasy playoffs with the Cardinals again, Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants. That is five games against bottom-13 teams in fantasy points allowed to running backs last year. A stretch that could determine whether managers make the playoffs or not. I am targeting Price in round five as a perfect RB2 for any build. The bet on Price’s talent, draft capital, situation, and schedule to make him a difference maker this season could turn him into a true league winner.
Conclusion
Use strength of schedule to break ties when drafting. It should not be the first, second, or even third factor. Teams improve from season to season, and this metric does not account for that. However, these are three running backs that I want on my fantasy teams regardless of their schedules. The schedule for these players is just the cherry on top of what could be monster fantasy seasons for all three of them. Draft all three of these running backs with confidence as we get closer to the NFL season starting.
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