Pedro, Olivier Giroud, Ondrej Duda, Miguel Almiron, Isaac Hayden, Philip Billing, Davy Propper, Joao Moutinho, Emiliano Buendia, Aaron Mooy, Harvey Barnes, Declan Rice, Matt Ritchie, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Mason Mount, Dan Burn, and Jan Bednarek. These are the players who scored double-digit points in Gameweek 28, despite not scoring a goal, assisting, or (in the case of defenders) keeping a clean sheet. They did so because of their underlying numbers. (Note, 13 of these 17 have ownerships below 75%!).
The underlying numbers include key passes, shots on target, successful dribbles, accurate crosses, aerials won, interceptions, clearances, and tackles. They can help identify players on the verge of breaking out or others that are due a fall. A midfielder with a decent FP/G, but without a single assist or goal could be poised for big things if he catches a break or two (like Manchester United’s Fred, perhaps?). Likewise, a forward banging in the goals and with a nice, but not exactly spectacular, FP/G might find his fantasy value drop if the goals dry up (Pukki is the prime example here).
But before we look at these numbers and think about what they might mean for Gameweeks 29, 30, and 31, let’s look at how we fared with our suggestions last time out.
Last Time Out in the Underlying Numbers: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
A very nice few weeks for the Underlying Numbers, with the Webster and Pukki calls spot on, and the Propper, Long, and Snodgrass advice also on the favorable side. Fred was the only let-down and I think part of that can be explained by Bruno Fernandes’ arrival at the club – the Portuguese man seems to have made things tick at United, and in doing so, relegated Fred back to his subordinate position in midfield.
The tables below show the players who are most and least reliant on either clean sheets (defenders) or assists and goals (midfielders/forwards). Only players who have played at least 720 league minutes and have an FP/G of at least 5 are included. Thanks to Stefan for the idea of adding FP/G’s next to players too.
…Underlying Numbers: High Reliance Players
The only two defenders here with high ownership are Gomez and Walker, and whilst they are worryingly reliant on clean sheets, if I owned either, I would be more concerned that Liverpool (provided they overcome Atletico) and City will predominantly use them in the Champions League from here on in. There are some tempting streamable names (e.g. Bardsley), but just remember that they bring with them higher risk than perhaps others from the same team (e.g. Taylor) because of these numbers. Not making this list because their FP/G is below 5 are the names of Lindelof and Coady. Lindelof is owned in 50% of leagues, and whilst United are indeed strong defensively, this is far too high for someone with his scores.
Coady was the subject of an interesting conversation on Twitter, and the brilliant Draft FPL analyzed his numbers here. They don’t make pretty reading. I’m a big believer in countering your opponent’s defenders, but I think even I draw the line at Coady. For such a valued player in real life (he’s played every Premier League game for Wolves since their return to the top flight), it’s very strange that his fantasy value is so low. He should not be owned in even 20% of leagues.
On the midfielder side of things we see some big names, but relying on goals and assists for your points is fine when you score goals and make assists for fun (see: De Bruyne, Mahrez, Silva). Where there is a case for these numbers to influence decision making is in the West Ham ranks. The hammers have a difficult run coming up, so don’t feel the need to jump on any Fornals or Snodgrass bandwagon after their win last weekend.
Interestingly Bruno Fernandes has a reliance % of 42.9 (he fails to make the list because he’s only played 359 minutes). I’m not saying that these numbers suggest selling high, but it’s definitely something to monitor going forward given the hype he’s receiving in the FPL community. He is the penalty taker for a United team that is getting stronger down the stretch though, so the reliance may be sustainable.
Finally, with the forwards we have a similar theme. Aguero and Aubameyang are always going to score, and I remain convinced that Vardy is going to go on a run of 6-8 goals in 5-6 games between now and the end of the season. One name that stands out is the red-hot Dominic Calvert-Lewin. I’m a big fan of the youngster and was surprised to see him here as he seems to put himself about a lot on the pitch, which tends to rack up good underlying numbers ala Troy Deeney.
Indeed, his 123 aerials won (tied for 3rd most amongst forwards) support this, but where he falters is in his support play. The Everton man seems very single-minded in his pursuit of goals (not a criticism at all)…a “proper forward”, if you will, but it does result in lower numbers elsewhere. He has just 13 key passes (42nd best amongst forwards), 1 assist (49th best), and 4 accurate crosses (22nd best).
Side note: despite my Champions League worries for City players, my strategy if I owned one would be to actually go out and get another. They are too valuable to lose, even with the focus elsewhere, and the best play might be to handcuff them for the run-in.
…Underlying Numbers: Low Reliance Players
Gameweeks 29, 30, and 31: Targets and Tales of Caution…
Target in Defence: Ruben Vinagre (11% ownership)
There’s no date set on Jonny’s return so pick up his replacement now – he might play for the foreseeable; he might not play at all. If he does play, he’s on an excellent Wolves team, with a delightful schedule, and has a reliance % of just 12.6. Jonny, as it happens, also has a very low reliance % (14.9), and has been in great fantasy form recently, so it might be worth throwing a trade out there if his injury isn’t too serious.
Trade Target in Defence: Lucas Digne (99% ownership)
The Everton left back has been a monster this season, but he’s missed the last two games with a niggling injury, and the Toffees have a very difficult schedule coming up. Which could make owners very tempted to trade-in. Try your luck if you can, because Digne could well be back in Gameweek 29, and he doesn’t rely on clean sheets for his points scoring (reliance % of just 11.9). He’s arguably the 2nd best defender in Fantrax, so if you can get him at a cut-price deal, take it.
Targets in Midfield: Ondrej Duda (48% ownership) and Matt Ritchie (58% ownership)
Duda and Ritchie are both finding their feet in the league after just joining or just returning from long-term injury. Neither have scored or assisted yet, but they have had decent fantasy returns; especially so the Norwich man. Duda’s 10.17 FP/G so far is very impressive, and is based largely on the 2 key passes he’s averaging a game – that ratio would rank in the top 10 in the league over the course of a season.
Ritchie’s impact may not have been as big, but we know from previous years that this guy can be a decent, consistent scorer. If you’ve read many of my articles, you probably know I don’t rate Newcastle as a team (though I do really like them, honest!), but their upcoming schedule is very favorable from an attacking sense. I don’t necessarily back them to score/win much any time soon, but I do think they’ll be more of a threat than in recent weeks, and Ritchie will hopefully be at the heart of that.
Target in Attack: Shane Long – again! (34% ownership)
In the last Underlying Numbers, Long had a 19% ownership. He now has a 34% ownership. Will this creep up to 50 by next time? It could well do. Southampton are good. Long is a starter. The West Ham game was a blip. They have Newcastle, Norwich, and Watford on the horizon. What’s not to like here? His reliance % is just 21.4, thanks largely to aerials won. If he can improve upon his 2 goals/2 assists, then we should be seeing double-digit returns.
Tales of Caution: Anthony Martial (100% ownership)
Is Martial injured? I’m hearing mixed reports…even if he is ready to go, these next three aren’t ideal. The Manchester derby needs no explanation (though perhaps without Laporte, they may be vulnerable), and whilst Brighton and Tottenham are hardly fortresses at the back, they are not bad on their own patch – which is where Martial could be facing them. United, as a team, also seem to be much poorer when traveling (27 goals in 14 games at Old Trafford, 15 goals in 14 games elsewhere). All of this points to limited chances for Martial, and with a very high 47.3% reliance rate, when he isn’t scoring, he isn’t contributing that much.
The Final Whistle
So that’s your lot for this week’s underlying numbers. See if you can grab a hold of Vinagre, Duda, Ritchie, Long, and maybe even Digne via a cheeky trade! Or make your own calls (and possible trade offers) based on looking at the two tables yourselves. Martial owners beware…United doesn’t have the easiest of games coming up, and his reliance % suggests that his fantasy value may dip. Remember, the green table – those who are not reliant on the big three stats – could be ideal “buy low” players, whilst the orange table – those who are reliant – could be your “sell high” players. Note, all fantasy points numbers are based on the Togga-scoring format, whilst % ownership was correct as of March 2nd.
Full data spreadsheets are available on request. Predominant sources used include www.premierleague.com, www.understat.com, www.sofascore.com, and www.whoscored.com.
Good luck in Gameweeks 29, 30, and 31!
Previous Editions of The Underlying Numbers: Gameweek 8 | Gameweek 10 | Gameweek 12 | Gameweek 15 | Gameweek 18 | Gameweek 22 | Gameweek 26 |
Navigating Blank Gameweek 31 is essential for all Fantasy EPL managers! With two games postponed, you need to make a plan!!
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