Week 16 of the NFL season concludes tonight with a DraftKings Showdown slate between the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts. The current projected total is 46 points, with the weather a non-factor in the dome. San Francisco enters as the favorite and is currently favored by 5.5 points.
That number comes from the disastrous stretch the Colts have been going through. Daniel Jones tore his Achilles tendon two weeks ago, and now Phillip Rivers, who came out of retirement after five years, is quarterbacking the team. In addition, Sauce Gardner, their star cornerback acquired in a splash trade at the trade deadline, will also miss this game with a calf injury.
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The Colts went from a Super Bowl contender in a wide-open AFC to now fighting to get into the playoffs, which they will likely miss. One thing that has not changed is Indianapolis’s offense, which runs through Jonathan Taylor. With the state of their offense, how much that will matter against an injured 49ers remains to be seen. However, he is in an advantageous matchup. And it would be smart to pick on that one for your captain spot.
Week 16 DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown Plays
Captain Pick: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (16.5K)
Honestly, this pick came down to Taylor or Christian McCaffrey. With DraftKings being full PPR, the lean would naturally go to McCaffrey. However, I wrote about him a month ago in the captain spot, and the same applies to him this week, banking on an elite workload and a few receptions. So, we will go with the running back facing the defense that is allowing the second-most receptions to the running back position. Taylor has three targets in four of his last five games, and should eclipse that number again tonight.
San Francisco also allows the 11th most estimated points against the run. Taylor averages the second-most opportunities per game, conveniently behind the running back on the other side in McCaffrey tonight. Both running backs have a fantastic outlook for tonight, but I will side with Taylor, as I am concerned they will try to preserve McCaffrey, as he did not have the ideal receiving role last week. And has been largely ineffective on the ground this season. If playing multiple DraftKings lineups, I suggest splitting them about evenly, with some featuring both star running backs.
Flex Play: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (10.4K)
Purdy is coming off an incredible game against the Tennessee Titans, where he scored 27.2 DraftKings points, thanks to three passing touchdowns. Purdy has quietly been putting up an excellent season. Among eligible quarterbacks, Purdy is third in estimated points added. The Colts have been great at limiting points, but they allow the fourth-most passing yards in the league. Purdy has one of the best casts of offensive skill players in the league, even with Ricky Pearsall out, and should be able to move the ball at will tonight.
Flex Play: Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers (8K)
Speaking of Pearsall being out, the offense will lean on George Kittle and Jennings tonight. And both are playable at their DraftKings salaries. However, without Gardner, the Colts have been one of the worst defenses against wide receivers. In the past two weeks, they have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers. They are giving up the most touchdowns to the position as well. And Jennings has been an excellent red-zone target. No other receiver has a touchdown from inside the 20-yard line this season for the 49ers, while Jennings has six of them. Jennings is the perfect stack with Brock Purdy and has the fourth-best odds to score tonight.
Flex Play: Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (5.6K)
Josh Downs draws a fantastic matchup tonight. Upton Stout, the primary slot corner for the 49ers, gives up the most passing yards and the highest passer rating on the team. According to PFF, he has given up the 15th most yards at the position this season. Outside of the excellent cornerback matchup for Downs, he also pairs perfectly with new quarterback Phillip Rivers. Through Rivers’ first game, his average depth of target is 5 yards per target. That meshes with Downs, who has the lowest ADOT among Colts receivers. He was unable to capitalize against the Seattle Seahawks and rookie safety Nick Emmanwori, who has fit perfectly in Seattle. This matchup offers a more promising outlook for Downs.
Defense & Kickers
The 49ers’ side is preferred for both defense and kicker. Even though Blake Grupe impressed last week in Seattle, hitting a 60-yard field goal. Eddie Pineiro has played in 11 games this season and has hit double-digit points in eight of them. He is unbelievably consistent for a kicker who was not on the team to start the year. Pineiro has a higher DraftKings salary, but the 49ers will have an easier time moving the ball tonight. It is also worth noting that Jason Myers was one of the Seahawks’ top scorers last week, kicking six field goals and making them all. So, another reason to lean toward Pineiro.
For defenses, it is easier to pick against the guy who just came out of retirement than against the guy who just threw three touchdowns this past week. And there is no reason to be contrarian on this point. I prefer the 49ers defense in the chance that Phillip Rivers comes out and has a lackluster performance in his second game back.
Final Thoughts
Neither defense has been great recently. So, this slate comes down to how much faith you have in Phillip Rivers. If the Colts can move the ball with Rivers, which their team’s total of 20 points implies they can, then this slate opens up. Rivers looked decent in his last game action against a potent Seattle defense. Jonathan Taylor is the only Colt that I trust tonight, with Downs being a solid second option. As for the 49ers, the entire offense is in play with an opportunity for Demarcus Robinson to be a value on DraftKings with an expanded role. This DraftKings Showdown slate will come down to the running backs and whether they can both capitalize on spots where they should see all of the work. I believe they both get it done tonight, and are both great DraftKings plays. I wish everyone the best of luck tonight on one of the final DraftKings Showdown slates of the season.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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