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Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells: It’s Miller Time

This week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells features an infielder in the midst of a sophomore slump and a prospect who could be flying up the rankings very soon. The dynasty baseball sells consist of a top prospect with some durability concerns and a six-time All-Star who could be on the decline. In case you missed it, you should also check out last week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells.

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Dynasty Baseball Buys

Zack Gelof, 2B, Oakland Athletics

If there was ever a perfect time to buy low on Gelof, it’s right now. His season has been underwhelming and even that’s putting it lightly. He is currently slashing .188/.250/.323 with three home runs, seven RBI, 11 runs, and four stolen bases. Gelof has struck out at a 34.3% clip this season, while only drawing seven walks in 105 plate appearances. There just hasn’t been much to get excited about with Gelof this season.

However, I think he has hit rock bottom and the only place to go from here is up. His exit velocity numbers have actually been very strong this year. He is averaging a 90 MPH exit velocity which is a slight uptick from last year and ranks in the 64th percentile this season. His xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are all higher than his actual AVG, SLG, and OBP, so he has been a bit unlucky this year. 

Gelof looked like a fantasy baseball star in the making in his rookie season. He was on pace for 31 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 600 at-bats. Gelof still combined for 26 homers and 34 stolen bases in 533 at-bats across the majors leagues and Triple-A last season. He has plus power and speed, so I wouldn’t be writing him off after this slow start. I still think he’s capable of pulling off a 20 HR/20 SB season. He is a good bet to rebound and a solid dynasty baseball buy at this time. 

Aidan Miller, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

If you’re looking for a potential top-10 prospect heading into next year who’s still widely available in most dynasties, Miller might be worth an add. He was selected in the first round of last year’s draft by the Philadelphia Phillies. Neither Baseball America nor Baseball Prospectus ranked him among their top 100 prospects. Last season he impressed in his 20 games of action between Rookie and Single-A ball, with a slash line of .303/.425/.379, including four stolen bases.

Miller has taken things to another level this season. In 21 games at Single-A, he has slashed .337/.420/.570 with nine stolen bases. He also has amassed four home runs, 16 RBI and 16 runs. In the month of May, he is currently slashing .387/.500/.710 in 31 at-bats. If he keeps raking at this pace, he could earn a promotion to High-A in the not too distant future. Miller’s stock is definitely on the rise and he should be considered a strong dynasty baseball buy.

Dynasty Baseball Sells

Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres

Machado’s exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed are all in the 74th percentile or better this season. However, it hasn’t translated to success for fantasy owners. Machado is slashing .228/.282/.354 this season. Last season he started showing some troubling signs. In 2023, he had his lowest on-base percentage and OPS since 2017. He also had his lowest slugging percentage since 2019.

This season has been even more concerning. He currently has career lows in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, wRC and wRC+. He is striking out in 22.4 percent of his plate appearances, which is the highest rate of his career. Machado is only walking 7.1 percent of the time, which is the lowest rate since 2016. Machado turns 32 years old in July and it may be wise to capitalize on his dynasty value now before it drops even more.

Ricky Tiedemann, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

Tiedemann is widely considered not only one of the best pitching prospects in baseball but one of the best overall prospects in baseball. Baseball America had him ranked as their number 22 prospect coming into this season. Tiedemann has compiled a 2.89 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 14.4 K/9 in 130.2 innings for his minor league career. There is no doubt that Tiedemann has the talent to be a frontline starter in the majors. 

The main concern with Tiedemann is his durability. Injuries have plagued him throughout his career. He threw 78.2 innings in his first professional season. Last year he only threw 44 innings. Fast forward to this year and he is currently on the injured list after only eight innings due to ulnar nerve inflammation. He has dealt with an array of different injuries throughout his career, including injuries to his shoulder, bicep, hamstring, and now his elbow. Tiedemann will likely fail to pitch 80 innings in each of his first three professional seasons. I think Tiedemann is a dynasty baseball sell due to his injury concerns. 

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