Dynasty Market: Week 1 Risers and Fallers

We here at Fantrax wanted to give our readers more content on the dynasty side of fantasy football. Since dynasty has become one of the biggest ways to play fantasy football, we want to help you stay ahead of the competition.

Our Dynasty Fantasy Football Market Changes series will give you insight into players who are rising and falling across the dynasty landscape. It will help answer an important question: Should you buy the dip on a falling player or sell high on a rising player?

We want to focus on why these players are rising or falling and whether their dynasty value could eventually correct back toward the median. This week, we will discuss four players whose values have changed over the last month.

Dynasty Market Risers & Fallers: Week 1

Trending Upward

Mike Washington Jr. | Running Back 

Rookie running back Mike Washington Jr. is trending upward in the dynasty rankings, as we’ve seen his ECR rise by six spots over the last week. Washington Jr. is a 6-foot-2, 228-pound running back with blazing 4.33 speed. He also showed he could handle volume in his final college season, rushing for 1,070 yards and eight touchdowns on 167 carries while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Coaches and the media have been hyping up the rookie after an elite preseason in which he finished with 23 carries for 168 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per carry.

Whether it was the recent injury to Ashton Jeanty or Washington Jr.’s strong preseason play, head coach Klint Kubiak seems to have changed his tone a bit. Earlier in the summer, the expectation was that Jeanty would operate as a workhorse back. More recently, Kubiak suggested that both running backs could have significant roles, saying, “I think that they’re both going to prepare to play a lot of football.”

If that statement ends up being true, we’ve already seen how Kubiak can utilize two running backs from his time in Seattle. That possibility seems to have resurfaced, which is a major reason Washington Jr. is trending upward. Kenneth Walker still managed to see 221 carries last season, while Zach Charbonnet had 184, with both backs mixing into the passing game and seeing opportunities in the red zone.

Washington Jr. has the patience to fit well within Kubiak’s outside-zone running scheme while also possessing the explosiveness to shoot through a gap and turn opportunities in the open field into big plays. Washington Jr.’s fit in this offense gives him a chance to provide standalone RB3/RB4 value.

Whether he eventually fills in for Jeanty or earns a consistent role in a split Raiders backfield, Washington Jr. has multiple paths to becoming a significant dynasty contributor and riser.

MarShawn Lloyd | Running Back 

Green Bay Packers running back MarShawn Lloyd is on the rise heading into Week 1 with the uncertainty surrounding Josh Jacobs‘ off-field issues. While Jacobs’ court date is scheduled for Sept. 10th, it remains to be seen if anything will come from it. The uncertainty has benefited Lloyd’s dynasty value in recent weeks, as he has been involved in actual trades for FLEX-worthy players.

Lloyd finally appears healthy heading into the season, which is something he has struggled with throughout his NFL career. He has played in just one NFL game, totaling 18 yards on seven touches. Lloyd has dealt with hamstring, hip, ankle and calf injuries, along with appendicitis.

Lloyd never received a massive workload in college, with 116 carries being his career high during his junior season. However, he ran with great efficiency, finishing that year with 820 yards and nine touchdowns. His value in the passing game also goes overlooked, as he added 13 receptions for 232 yards.

For Lloyd, the best-case scenario is that Jacobs ends up missing time, which could open the door for him to take on a starting role. That opportunity could give Lloyd enough time to flash and become a bigger part of a Packers offense that could use a spark right now.

Whether you were holding onto Lloyd to sell or now have a potential RB3 for your dynasty roster, his value is trending upward heading into Week 1.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!

Trending Downward

Oronde Gadsden II | Tight End

Chargers second-year tight end Oronde Gadsden II seems to be trending downward as we get closer to the start of the season. Gadsden appeared to be on the rise after a rookie season with 49 receptions, 664 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. It looked like the Chargers had found a diamond in the rough at tight end. That changed quickly in the offseason, as the team signed blocking tight end Charlie Kolar and veteran David Njoku. Gadsden opens the season as the TE2 behind Kolar, likely because of Kolar’s blocking ability.

In this Mike McDaniel offense, they don’t necessarily need to feature a pass-catching tight end. We have to wonder what the tight end rotation will look like with three capable options. Gadsden ranked eighth among tight ends in red-zone targets last year; can he continue to hold the red-zone threat role? Njoku had 9 red-zone targets in only 12 games.

Gadsden looked the part of an explosive pass catcher, ranking fifth in aDOT and third in deep targets and yards per reception among tight ends. Most of Gadsden’s production last year came when Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin were out. Gadsden had only one game with more than 40 receiving yards with Dissly on the field.

Week 1 should give us some clarity on Gadsden’s dynasty value moving forward and whether he is going to be a major breakout or remain stuck in a tight end rotation. It could be a good time for a rebuilding dynasty team to buy low on the young tight end while his value is trending in the wrong direction.

RJ Harvey | Running Back

Last year’s rookie pick for the Broncos, RJ Harvey, seems to be heading in the wrong direction for dynasty. The second-year running back has seen his role come into question with the re-signing of J.K. Dobbins and the selection of Jonah Coleman.

Despite Harvey playing well for our dynasty rosters last season, he managed only 3.7 yards per carry. His efficiency was much more concerning, as he ranked outside the top 30 in breakaway runs, yards per touch, and evaded tackles. On a positive note, his touchdown upside was elite, with 12 total touchdowns, and he ranked fifth in fantasy points per opportunity.

Dobbins returns as the starter, which could put Harvey back in the 1B role. Through nine games last year, Dobbins out-carried Harvey 134 to 46. While that difference could shrink this season, the team made it a point to bring Dobbins back to operate as at least the 1A in this offense.

We all know Dobbins has an injury history, which could push Harvey back into a starting role at some point. However, the team also chose to draft fourth-round pick Coleman. Coleman brings a somewhat similar skill set to Dobbins as a more physical and aggressive runner, which could make him the better fill-in over Harvey. His 4.4 yards after contact shows that physical side and he was also a solid pass blocker while catching 87 passes during his college career.

The 25-year-old Harvey should still have a role in the passing game, but his upside could be tied heavily to his target share. Last year, it was 10.1%, ranking in the top 20.

In the dynasty market, it seems difficult to sell Harvey, who finished as the RB21 last season, especially compared to the upside of other running backs from his class like Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, and Bhayshul Tuten.