Fantasy EPL Gameweek 15: PP90 Against

First of all, just a quick refresher to anyone who doesn’t know what PP90 is. PP90 refers to Points per 90. This tends to be a better metric for judging a player’s value than total fantasy points which can overvalue individuals who play 90 minutes week in, week out or FP/G (fantasy points per game) which undervalues individuals who get subbed on or off regularly.

PP90 Against calculates the average PP90 earned against each team for each position. To do this, we sum all of the ‘total fantasy points’ scored against a team, sum all of the ‘minutes played’ against a team, divide the former by the latter, and multiply the resultant number by 90.

Boring maths aside, PP90 allows us to see which teams are good for our fantasy players to face, and which ones aren’t. This information can then help us decide who to start and who to bench; for instance, last week, sitting Che Adams – a forward with ~10.5 FP/G – against Manchester City would have been the advised move because City have the lowest PP90 Against for Forwards in the league. It can also help us in waiver and free agent pickups; for example, in gameweek 14, picking up Scott McTominay – a midfielder with 19% ownership – may have been suggested, given that Leeds United have the second highest PP90 Against for Midfielders in the league.

Heading into gameweek 15, we now have a decent chunk of data to work with. As such, the following PP90 figures can be dissected in the hope of giving you an advantage in your league this weekend.

PP90: EPL Points Against – Goalkeepers

Not much to call between the bottom five – the teams to avoid – whilst three teams sit as the clear ones to target for any goalkeeper streaming. This should make interesting reading for Ederson owners – of which there are plenty given that his 88% ownership is 4^th highest amongst goalkeepers in the league – as City take on Newcastle this weekend. By contrast, Leeds goalkeeper Illan Meslier is owned in just 47% of leagues but goes up against Burnley in gameweek 15 – a very likeable fixture for the shot-stopper. If he isn’t available, then you can always turn your attention to “England’s number 1” (and I say that sarcastically), Jordan Pickford, who takes on Sheffield United. Finally, Alex McCarthy (51% ownership) is the goalkeeper facing Fulham.

Fun Facts

The average goalkeeper PP90 so far this season is 5.72.
7 out of 13 goalkeepers (54%) to have faced Burnley this season have scored double-digit points. They are also the only team this season in which a goalkeeper is yet to come away with negative points.
11 out of 14 goalkeepers (79%) to take on Everton this season have scored below average. In fact, if you remove Illan Meslier’s massive 24 point haul against them in gameweek 10, their PP90 Against falls from 3.93 to just 2.38.
Meslier’s 24 points is the highest goalkeeper score so far this season. There have only been 7 other instances of 20+ scores.
Vicente Guaita’s -13.75 points last weekend against Liverpool is the lowest goalkeeper score so far this season. There have been 46 (!) negative scores by goalkeepers in total so far this season.
Crystal Palace appear to be the most enigmatic opponent for goalkeepers; five have come away with double-digit points, whilst five have come away with negative points.

EPL Points Against – Defenders

Crystal Palace combined for a total of negative 40 points against Liverpool in gameweek 14 – and that is with Kouyate (a midfielder) playing 63 minutes at center back. It’s not surprising, then, to see Liverpool as the major team to avoid if you are streaming defenders. Their Merseyside neighbors Everton are also a tough assignment, whilst Chelsea and Manchester City sit a little further back in 3^rd and 4^th lowest, respectively. At the other end, Sheffield United and Burnley flip their one-two status from the goalkeeper data and remain excellent options to target, whilst West Bromwich Albion, Fulham, and Crystal Palace make up what is probably not a very surprising top five. In terms of your team, this means that the recently popular Darnell Furlong (63% ownership) should probably be sat in gameweek 15, as well as any Sheffield United defenders you may have…though I hope that particular bit of advice is not needed by this point! If you are in need of a defensive pickup, Holgate (15%) would probably be the best bet based on this data, or Liverpool’s Matip if he is available (58% ownership). Of course, given the time of year, it pays to be alert to the lineups, as any rotation from Klopp – like bringing in Nathaniel Phillips or Neco Williams – should be jumped upon by fantasy managers, given their upcoming fixture against West Bromwich Albion. Finally, it should go without saying that this data should not be the only source of your decision making. Burnley have the second-highest PP90 against, but their opponents this weekend are Leeds United, a team with one of the worst defenses in the league, and so you probably shouldn’t go and pickup Liam Cooper (if he is even fit).

Fun Facts

The average defender PP90 so far this season is 6.15.
26 out of 62 defenders (42%) to have faced Liverpool this season have scored negative points.
32 out of 57 defenders (56%) to take on Sheffield United this season have scored 10 or more points.
Ben Chilwell’s 40.25 against Crystal Palace in gameweek 4 is the highest defender score so far this season.
Nathaniel Clyne’s -15 against Liverpool in gameweek 14 is the lowest defender score so far this season.

EPL Points Against – Midfielders

Very little to choose between most of the league right now when it comes to the PP90 Against for Midfielders. Chelsea has the lowest, with Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Manchester City particularly close behind. At the other end, there are three teams that stand out: West Bromwich Albion, Leeds United, and Sheffield United. Again, the logic applies with regards to checking team lineups this weekend. Curtis Jones (27% ownership) and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (16%) could be the huge beneficiaries of any rotation, whilst Burnley’s Robbie Brady (8%) and Josh Brownhill (28%) and Everton’s Alex Iwobi (38%) could take advantage of their games against Leeds United and Sheffield United, respectively. Chelsea and Arsenal face each other in gameweek 15, which makes Saka (90%) are strong bench candidate, though it would take a brave – but perhaps logical! – person to sit the likes of Mason Mount, Christian Pulisic, and Kai Havertz too.

Fun Facts

The average midfielder PP90 so far this season is 8.20.
9 out of 83 midfielders (11%) to have faced Chelsea this season have scored 10 or more points. If you remove Gylfi Sigurdsson’s 29 point haul against them for Everton, their PP90 Against drops from 6.29 to 5.90.
22 out of 78 midfielders (28%) to take on West Bromwich Albion this season have scored 10 or more points – not an outrageously high number. What is a bit more extreme is that five players have scored 30+ points against them – Jack Grealish, Anwar El Ghazi, Mason Mount, Wilfriend Zaha, and Bertrand Traore. To put this into context, Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea, Leicester City, Manchester City, Sheffield United, and Tottenham Hotspur have all yet to have a single player score 30 or more against them.
Jack Grealish’s 54.50 against Liverpool in gameweek 4 is the highest midfielder score so far this season.
Ezgjan Alioski’s -11 against Manchester United in gameweek 14 is the lowest midfielder score so far this season.

EPL Points Against – Forwards

Forward matchups against Manchester City should be sits for all but the most elite of strikers, with Chelsea (not surprisingly, given their league-best XGA) in the second spot. This means a trip to the bench for Callum Wilson (93% ownership), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (100%), Willian (85%), and Lacazette (83%). Leeds United have bettered their Midfielder PP90 Against ranking by sitting as the highest placed team this time around. Southampton is a perhaps surprising 2^nd place, whilst Newcastle United, West Bromwich Albion, Burnley, and Fulham all tend to give up big points to opposition forwards. Based on this, Ashley Barnes at just 5% ownership screams out as the pickup of the weekend. Takumi Minamino (15%) is worth picking up if you have space in your squad, as another start for him should prove even more profitable than his gameweek 14 return against Crystal Palace.

Fun Facts

The average forward PP90 so far this season is 11.10.
25 out of 44 forwards (57%) to have faced Manchester City this season have scored 3 points or fewer. If you remove Jamie Vardy’s 36 point haul against them for Leicester City, their PP90 Against drops from 7.03 to just 6.02.
Only 13 out of 37 (35%) forwards to take on Leeds United this season have failed to score 5 or more points. Five players have scored 25+ points against them – Mohamed Salah, Anthony Martial, Jamie Vardy, Aleksandar Mitrovic, and Raheem Sterling.
Son Heung-Min’s 50.50 against Southampton in gameweek 2 is the highest forward score so far this season.
Helder Costa’s -7 against Crystal Palace in gameweek 8 is the lowest forward score so far this season.

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EPL Statistics