It’s Gameweek 23. Your opponent has Reece James, Troy Deeney, and Fred. You check the scores. Chelsea lost 1-0. Watford drew 0-0, with Deeney missing a penalty. And United was easily outclassed by Liverpool by two goals to nil. You start wondering what this fantasy victory will mean to the league table. Then you check the scores… James: 19.75. Deeney: 19. Fred: 16.5. Hang on? This can’t be right. It is, and it’s because of The Underlying Numbers.
The underlying numbers include key passes, shots on target, successful dribbles, accurate crosses, aerials won, interceptions, clearances, and tackles. They can help identify players on the verge of breaking out or others that are due a fall. A midfielder with a decent FP/G, but without a single assist or goal (United’s Fred is the man here) could be poised for big things if he catches a break or two. Likewise, a forward banging in the goals and with a nice, but not exactly spectacular, FP/G might find his fantasy value drop if the goals dry up (Pukki and Wood are the prime candidates).
But before we look at these numbers and think about what they might mean for Gameweeks 26, 27, and 28, let’s look at how we fared with our suggestions last time out.
Last Time Out in the Underlying Numbers: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
A little disappointing last time out. Sidibe did okay, but I was expecting bigger, and Ings didn’t do great, but I was expecting much worse. Mooy was the biggest failure from a prediction standpoint, though hopefully a Billing pickup or McNeil trade canceled that one out.
The tables below show the players who are most and least reliant on either clean sheets (defenders) or assists and goals (midfielders/forwards). Only players who have played at least 630 league minutes and have an FP/G of at least 5 are included. Thanks to Stefan for the idea of adding FP/G’s next to players too.
Underlying Numbers: High Reliance Players
Underlying Numbers: Low Reliance Players
Gameweeks 26, 27, and 28: Targets and Tales of Caution…
Targets in Defence: Adam Webster (24% ownership)
Brighton’s next three are home to Watford (19th most goals scored), away at Sheffield United (15th most), and home to Crystal Palace (20th most). The table above suggests that Webster isn’t reliant on clean sheets much at all…but there’s a great opportunity that one – or maybe two – could be on the horizon to boost his scoring even further. The 6 foot 2 defender could be busy against three teams who sit in the top 7 for inaccurate long balls this season.
Targets in Midfield: Fred (56% ownership) and Davy Propper (34% ownership)
A manager in my league traded for Fred this week….by giving Bernardo Silva in return. It caused a bit of controversy at first, but once you look at the numbers, it’s understandable…and you could argue he will come out the winner of the trade. Bilva has spent much of 2020 on the outside looking in (just 1 start so far), and with Sane due back soon, that might not get any better. Fred, meanwhile, has quietly become integral to United, with 52 points in his 5 games this calendar year. An 8-9 point score is probably the floor now that he’s settled in, and whilst the ceiling might not be very high/rarely reached, if you want a solid, reliable starter then you can do a lot less than the 56% owned United man.
Graham Potter is a difficult manager to predict, but Davy Propper seems to have earned his trust, having started the last five games for the Seagulls. He hasn’t scored great (5.9 FP/G), but at just 34% ownership and with the fixtures Brighton has coming up, he might be worth a punt in deeper leagues. The expected numbers suggest Brighton will be fine this season – a mid-table finish more likely than a relegation scrap – and these next three games will show if that’s the case. If it is, and Propper continues to start, we could see him hit some nice scores.
Target in Attack: Shane Long (19% ownership)
Shane Long looks to have cemented himself as Ings’ permanent partner, which should make him a very viable fantasy option, especially given Southampton’s upcoming fixtures. Burnley and Villa at home, followed by West Ham away…and Gameweeks 29 and 30 are good too (Newcastle and Norwich). The hard-working forward wins his fair share of aerials, and with 5 key passes against the stingy defenses of Liverpool and Leicester in recent weeks, the points could rack up against the more vulnerable defenses due next. Oh, and Southampton is actually really good…always worth owning a forward from a top-half club.
Tales of Caution: Robert Snodgrass (61% ownership) and Teemu Pukki (97% ownership)
Yes, he scored two goals on the weekend (both deflected, and the first, I would argue, was going wide given the spin on the ball), but let someone else be that reactive manager who is hoping for a repeat. It’s not happening. Everyone knows the daunting schedule coming up for the Hammers, and in Togga scoring that may not necessarily be the worst thing in the world for someone like Declan Rice who should see his tackles and interceptions increase. But for Snodgrass, it doesn’t bode well. And it’s not just that they’re facing good teams, it’s that those teams also keep the ball a lot (Man City with an average of 61% possession and Liverpool with 58% – top two in the league). Without the ball, Snodgrass can’t do the things that get him points.
Teemu Pukki has failed to score or assist in 14 games this season. In those 14 games, he scored above 5 points just 4 times. This shouldn’t come as a surprise really. He has won 3 aerials all season (tied for 58th best amongst forwards in the league), has 15 successful dribbles (tied for 40th), 0 accurate crosses, and disappointing defensive numbers too. Norwich’s next three are Liverpool at home, Wolves away, and Leicester at home. Good luck owners.
The Final Whistle
So that’s your lot for this week’s underlying numbers. See if you can grab a hold of Webster, Fred, Propper, and Long, or make your own calls (and possible trade offers) based on looking at the two tables yourselves. Snodgrass and Pukki owners beware…West Ham and Norwich have a very difficult few weeks coming up, and the reliance %’s of these two would suggest that their fantasy value dips. Pukki owners, what do you do? Trade now? Ride it out with him on the bench? Or ignore this stupid article altogether? Let me know with a comment. Remember, the green table – those who are not reliant on the big three stats – could be ideal “buy low” players, whilst the orange table – those who are reliant – could be your “sell high” players. Note, all fantasy points numbers are based on the Togga-scoring format, whilst % ownership was correct as of January 5th.
Full data spreadsheets are available on request. Predominant sources used include www.premierleague.com, www.understat.com, www.sofascore.com, and www.whoscored.com.
Good luck in Gameweeks 26, 27, and 28!
Previous Editions of The Underlying Numbers: Gameweek 8 | Gameweek 10 | Gameweek 12 | Gameweek 15 | Gameweek 18 | Gameweek 22 |
Navigating Blank Gameweek 28 is essential for all Fantasy EPL managers! With two games postponed, you need to make a plan!!
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