Welcome back to the Stats Corner! If you’ve ever read one of my articles, you will know that I love statistics. Statistics do not lie. The people interpreting them may do so (intentionally or accidentally), but the numbers themselves do not. We’re at a point now where trying to prevent the infiltration of data in football is about as successful as the Premier League’s handling of VAR. So let’s embrace it. Statistics have helped Liverpool return to relevance and Manchester City assert their dominance, but more importantly, they could also help you win your fantasy football league.
Every few weeks – between the Underlying Numbers and EPL Points Against articles – I will bring you Stats Corner. In Stats Corner I will provide the latest breakdown of Points per 90 (PP90), Lost Points, and Expected Goals: Bookends Removed; three statistics that can help you in your quest for fantasy glory…and which can (probably) only be found here. Oh, and I’ll also pop in a bonus statistic just for fun.
PP90
PP90 stands for ‘Points per 90’ and is simply the FP/G of a player if they were to play the full 90 minutes. By and large it is probably a better reflection of a player’s fantasy value than FP/G, which does not take into account how much of a game a player has played, only that they played. PP90 better appreciates the value of those players who do not always start. Knowing this can then give us an advantage on those occasions when they do make the starting eleven.
No change at the top, or even the top 5 for that matter. In fact, the actual make-up of the top 10 only differs from last time with Son coming in for the out-of-form Jamie Vardy. It’s a place the South Korean may keep if we are to believe Jose regarding the extent of his injury (spoiler: do not believe Jose – my money is he makes a miraculous recovery…probably in time for Sheffield United in Gameweek 32). Note, these numbers have been collected prior to Manchester City’s fixture against West Ham, so there is the possibility of some change…probably with Mahrez et al.’s numbers increasing even further.
On the PP90-FP/G Discrepancy side, all of the non-City names have ownerships currently lower than 80%, most considerably so. There are obvious playing concerns over these, and even if they do start a game, they rarely finish one (Mousset and the Ox haven’t played a full 90 all season). McBurnie and Bernard, though, do seem to be in their manager’s good books at the moment and are scoring well for in-form teams. They should definitely be looked at if they are available in your league.
Some interesting names just miss out on the above lists. Erik Lamela – with a discrepancy of 4.08 and owned in just 37% of leagues – could benefit from Tottenham’s lack of forward options, whilst Christian Benteke – PP90 of 13.90 – has started the last four for Palace and returned double-digit points in each. Also, keep an eye on Chelsea’s next lineup; the 2-0 loss to United, whilst perhaps a little unfair, might tempt Frank Lampard into bringing a proper left-back into the defense…Marcos Alonso has a PP90 of 18.26 and is owned in 64% of leagues.
Also of note:
Leandro Trossard (70% ownership; PP90 of 12.60), Allan Saint-Maximin (62%; 12.55), Robert Snodgrass (61%; 12.48), Jonjo Shelvey (44%; 12.16), Shkodran Mustafi (37%; 12.69), Sofiane Boufal (8%; 12.63), and Joel Matip (69%; 12.29).
Lost Points
One of the many ways in which Fantrax EPL is the best form of fantasy football is in the types of scoring system that can be implemented, most notable of which is the Togga scoring system. Togga scoring allows for negative points – or Lost Points – and includes dispossessions, cards, and own goals (note, they do not include goals conceded). Cards and own goals are relatively rare occurrences, and therefore knowing which players have FP/G’s that are skewed by such things could give you a leg up on the competition.
Congratulations are in order for the King of the Lost Points: Wilfried Zaha has passed the century mark and has now been dispossessed 101 times this season. Next highest is Emiliano Buendia with 61. Top work from the winger. Believe it or not, it’s actually an improvement on last season for the Palace man, as his current rate of 3.88 dispossessions per game is less than the 4.15 dispossessions per game he was averaging last year. That’s progress.
Last time I highlighted Doucoure’s name as someone who might be worth nabbing in a trade. His FP/G is being brought down by an own goal and some yellow cards earlier in the season, but he hasn’t kicked on despite his more advanced role. Bare minimum returns against Aston Villa and Everton are balanced out a little by a nice 15-pointer against Brighton, but still disappointing overall. I still wouldn’t turn him down at the right price though. Callum Wilson’s name is new to the leaderboard, and he may be worth looking at. Back-to-back yellow cards make it seven for the season, but the Bournemouth man isn’t a dirty player by any stretch of the imagination. It wouldn’t surprise me to see his FP/G sit around the 8.5 mark for the remainder of the season, making him a potentially viable forward depending on the league.
Also of note:
John Fleck (FP/G = 9.20; FP/G without Lost Points = 10.46), Aaron Wan-Bissaka (8.32; 9.64), Pascal Gross (8.33; 9.37), Chris Wood (8.27; 9.35), Ashley Westwood (7.41; 8.67), Aaron Mooy (6.97; 8.58), Jorginho (7.06; 8.54), Luka Milivojevic (7.05; 8.52), Joelinton (6.85; 8.06), Mateo Kovacic (6.67; 8.04), and Lewis Dunk (6.70; 7.80.
Expected Goals: Bookends Removed
Expected goals is “a statistical measure of the quality of chances created and conceded” (Understat.com). These expected numbers are based on averages, so we should expect the teams that have above-average players to consistently outperform them. But for everyone else, we should see their performances (and therefore their league position) more closely align with expected numbers as the season goes on. Obviously fantasy points and league performance go hand-in-hand (see the PP90 above for evidence of that!), so knowing this information can help us stay one step ahead in finding that breakout player (or player who has already peaked!).
Many football sources use expected goals tables as an indicator of which teams have the best/worst defenses and attacks. The problem with this is that every team in the Premier League has the capability to play excellently or atrociously on the odd occasion (the old “every dog has his day”/”it never rains but it pours” idioms comes to mind). Grouping such occasions into our sample of data distorts the final picture being presented. One way around this is to simply remove the bookends: the best and worst performances of each team during the season. For instance, Manchester City has an average XG of 2.68, but if you remove their best (6.63 vs Watford) and worst (1.09 vs Sheffield United), then it becomes “just” 2.55. This is, in my opinion, gives you a better estimate of what to expect from an attacking perspective next time City play. Now, with 26 games of the season gone, we will be removing the TWO best and TWO worst performances; leaving the XG and XGA tables to be based on the middle 22 games.
I’ve spoken regularly about how Aston Villa and West Ham have “normal” numbers that are slightly overestimating their attacking threat, so I won’t repeat myself again. Perhaps the most startling thing to take from the xG table is the size of the gap between 18th best Norwich and the bottom two of Crystal Palace and Newcastle. They are simply creating very, very little going forward. I said last time out that Newcastle could easily begin a slide towards a relegation battle and I’m sticking with that. As it happens, Steve Bruce’s side takes on Roy Hodgson’s Palace in Gameweek 27. The loser of that will definitely be looking over their shoulder with worry.
xG Fun Facts:
- Has Arsenal’s attack finally turned the corner under Arteta? Their xG against Newcastle in Gameweek 26 (3.09) was the highest of the season…in related news, a certain Mesut Ozil has been an ever-present in 2020 and is owned in 80% of leagues.
- Bournemouth’s best attacking return (xG of 2.73) came in Gameweek 25. Tottenham’s best attacking return (xG of 3.72) came in Gameweek 26. Guess what they had in common? They faced the sieve that is Aston Villa’s defense.
- Two of Chelsea’s worst attacking performances have come in the last two weeks. To be fair, they were against two of the best defenses in the league (Leicester: 0.79 xG, and Manchester United: 0.89 xG), so don’t jump off the Willian/Abraham/Mount bandwagon yet.
- Everton put up their highest xG of the season against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 26 (2.79). How Ancelotti replaces the injured Walcott should be of great interest to fantasy managers, who might be able to capitalize on a resurgent Toffees.
- Manchester United may have won at the Bridge, but it was their second-worst attacking display of the season in terms of xG (0.66). I’m not convinced that they are a top-four side, so the likes of Martial (7.83 FP/G in 2020 whilst starting every game) would be trade bait for me.
On the defensive side of things, Watford continues to be an average unit, as opposed to a below-average one that most expected tables have them as. Masina and Dawson have scored nicely in recent weeks, and depending on Watford’s opponents, these could be useful pickups in deep leagues. Like the xG side, perhaps the most interesting part is the gap between the teams at the bottom. There’s very little to pick between Tottenham (9th best xGA) and Arsenal (14th best), but then after that, each drop is a big one. To try and put this into perspective, the gap in ability between Crystal Palace’s 15th best defense and Aston Villa’s 20th best defense is bigger than the gap between Crystal Palace and Liverpool’s league-best defense.
xGA Fun Facts:
- Aston Villa’s defense shows no sign of improving, with the 3.72 xGA against Tottenham in Gameweek 26 their second-worst yet. Despite this, wing-back Matt Targett continues to be an excellent fantasy option with an FP/G of 13.94 in 2020.
- Brighton had their best defensive performance of the season in Gameweek 26, giving up just 0.29 xGA at home to Watford. Incredibly, Brighton hasn’t lost the “xG battle” since facing Sheffield United back in Gameweek 17…somehow they’ve only managed to take 7 points in that time. If their luck turns, Mooy (40% ownership) and Trossard (70%) are likely to benefit.
- Newcastle’s 4-0 defeat to Arsenal was a fair reflection on what was the worst defensive performance (3.09 xGA) this season for the Magpies. No player from Steve Bruce’s side has an ownership north of 65%, but even the 50% for Danny Rose seems too high – a case of reputation preceding logic I think here.
- Southampton had their second-worst defensive performance of the season in gameweek 25 (3.66 xGA), though this was against the all-conquering Liverpool side, so the likes of Bertrand (31% ownership; 8.67 FP/G in 2020) and Bednarek (15%; 7.19) should remain on your radar.
- Tottenham gave up an xGA of 3.23 in gameweek 25 (admittedly to Manchester City); only Aston Villa and Newcastle have a worst average xGA over the last five matches. Somehow Toby Alderweireld is owned in 75% of leagues.
Bonus Corner: Planning for the Run-In
With the longest gameweek in fantasy football history now over, it’s really starting to feel like we’re moving into the crunch time in the league. For many people, we are looking at around nine games left of the regular season, followed by a playoffs that last a further three games (or at least that’s the hope!). Regardless of whether it is indeed nine, or eight, or seven, the planning really should start now, and what better way than to use the Expected Goals: Bookends Removed for each teams remaining opponents.
The graphs above show the average expected goals and expected goals against for each team’s opponents from gameweeks 27 to 35. Essentially, the first one shows the quality of attacks that the teams are going to face (higher being worse), and the second one shows the quality of defences that the teams are going to face (lower being worse). So if you’re battling to make the playoffs or fighting for the title (or even scraping just to avoid the embarrassment of finishing last), then these could be a good indicator of who to target in the run-in.
What this means to your defense…
Arsenal, Brighton, and Everton have some very good attacking teams coming up. Does that make Digne a good option to trade now whilst his value is high? Possibly. I’d probably be more included to cash in on Sidibe (80% ownership) or Mina (64%) if you have them. At the opposite end, Wolves are facing some very anemic forwards from now until Gameweek 35. It may be worth scoping out whether the likes of Boly, Doherty, and Jonny are available. Newcastle and Sheffield United also have a good schedule in terms of opponent xG, though I’d probably steer clear of Newcastle: it doesn’t matter how impotent their opponents are, if your defence is the 3rd worst in the league itself, then there’s probably not much fantasy value there.
What this means to your attack…
On the xGA side owners of Gross (87% ownership), Richarlison (100%), Sigurdsson (97%), Calvert-Lewin (87%), Grealish (99%), and Fraser (88%) might be a little worried when they look at the above chart. Their respective teams face some very mean defenses over the next couple of months and we might expect a dip in fantasy value for some of these big-name players. Perhaps a trade could see you navigate the run-in successfully? Grealish for Jimenez? Richarlison for Ings? Wolves’ schedule looks perfect, and if Neto (12% ownership) can keep his place ahead of Jota, he could prove very good value. Southampton, Newcastle, and Liverpool also have very good run-ins, though the same story applies to Newcastle: they have the worst attack in the league so I’m not backing their forwards to score under any circumstance.
Already won your league and ready to focus on the next challenge? Or is the league leader so far ahead that the title is over and the playoffs are the only thing left up for grabs? Or maybe you don’t have playoffs and you want to plan for those final three, super-crucial matches. Either way, the two graphs above should help you here. Same rules apply, but obviously now they are for each team’s opponents between gameweeks 36 and 38.
What this means to your defense…
There’s a fair few options to target on the xG side (which would be your defense). Indeed, Brighton and Everton go from having a difficult next nine to a very nice final three (hence keeping Digne!). Both Manchester clubs and Tottenham also look good here, though each may have European semi-finals to think about, which complicates things from a fantasy perspective. Avoid defenders from Norwich, Bournemouth, and Watford (…that probably didn’t need saying).
What this means to your attack…
In terms of your attack, Bournemouth and Norwich don’t look good again, whilst Leicester and Palace also have a tricky May. Fraser, Pukki, Vardy, and Zaha are all big names in the draft fantasy game here at Fantrax, but it would be surprising if any of them were to lead your team to playoff glory. Everton and the two Manchester clubs are the teams with the best final three games – if Pep and Ole fail in Europe before then it really sets up some of those players as great trade options.
“The idea that I [should] trust my eyes more than the stats, I don’t buy that because I’ve seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know that the rabbit’s not in there.” (Billy Beane; Moneyball)
For any of the data used in this article, please feel free to get in touch with me via Twitter (https://twitter.com/the_innergeek). Predominant sources used include www.understat.com (source for Expected Goals: Bookends Removed), www.premierleague.com, www.sofascore.com, and www.whoscored.com.
Previous Editions of Stats Corner: Gameweek 16 | Gameweek 19 | Gameweek 23 |
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