A common draft strategy voiced during pre-season was to not waste a pick on a goalkeeper. Or at least not to waste a high/moderate pick (i.e. first 10 rounds). This is something I strongly believe in. Goalkeepers for the big teams often face few shots and are therefore very reliant on clean sheets for their points, whilst goalkeepers for the small teams are, clearly, at risk of conceding a lot and therefore actually ending with negative points.
I felt the agony of this dilemma first hand a few weeks ago. I picked up Ederson (a player many people drafted high up!) as a free agent as he was facing Aston Villa away. At 6-0, heading into injury time, the clean sheet points were about to give me a massive 137-134 win against a title rival. Then the penalty happened. Ederson ended on -2 points and I lost. That week, 11 different keepers scored the 6 points that would have given me victory, including 5 that did so without getting a clean sheet.
Finding the happy medium is a very difficult task, but doing so – as you can see from this experience – can be the difference between winning and losing (and potentially a league title!). One strategy that can help is to pick up goalkeepers on a week-by-week basis (“streaming”) by looking at EPL Points Against.
EPL Points Against…What is it?
EPL Points Against calculates how many points a position, in general, is averaging against a particular team. For instance, if the first 10 goalkeepers that faced Arsenal this season scored 2.25 points, 0, 16.25, 8, 0, 0.25, 6, 0, 11, and 4, then the EPL Points Against at that point would have been 4.78. It is essentially putting objective values to things that we already think of when making defensive decisions.
But who to get? A buddy in my league, despite spending the whole summer admitting that I was right and that he would go for the streaming strategy, took Alisson in the 7th round. His explanation was that he didn’t want the hassle of having to research who to get each week. The hassle of having to dig into the numbers; looking at the opposition, past scores, trends, and many of the other things that could influence a goalkeeper’s points potential. It was a fair response. But he didn’t bank on these articles being written…
Last Time Out in the EPL Points Against: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
As mentioned in a previous article, rather than just giving out advice without any sort of accountability, I will instead be taking a brief look back at my predictions each week to assess how I fared. Here is who I predicted to produce the goods in Gameweeks 25, 26, and 27, based on EPL Points Against:
Gameweek 25 Targets
Martin Dubravka (16.00 at home to Norwich) and Lukasz Fabianski (3.25 at home to Brighton)
The best goalkeeper in the game (just ahead of Pope) turned in a great performance against the Canaries. I said that this was the sort of game that Newcastle would win 1-0, but a 0-0 is just the same for any Dubravka owners out there. The Fabianski call was less successful, though not catastrophic (see next blurb). The West Ham man conceded three goals at home to Brighton – usually, this sort of thing results in negative points, but with 4 saves, a clearance, and an aerial/punch, Fab managed to pull off some damage limitation.
Gameweek 26 Targets
Willy Caballero (-1.00 at home to Manchester United) and Dean Henderson (1.75 at home to Bournemouth)
I’m still bitter about the Manchester United-Chelsea game (my opponent had Maguire, who should have been sent off but ended up with 28 points…I lost by 10) so I won’t say much about it, other than this was a very rare case of a goalkeeper scoring poorly against United at home. Lesson learned: Chelsea’s goalkeeper inadequacies are greater than United’s EPL Points Against. Henderson wasn’t much better in what was a poor week for the EPL Points Against recommendations.
Gameweek 27 Targets
Hugo Lloris (6.00 away at Chelsea) and Rui Patricio (16.00 at home to Norwich)
I’ll take a 6 point haul for the Spurs keeper away at Chelsea – it’s well above the goalkeeper average of 5.99. Even more satisfying, though, was Rui Patricio’s return of 16 points at home to Norwich. The clean sheet was always favorable, but to rack up an additional four saves was a nice little bonus.
In homage to Tyson Fury’s recent domination of Deontay Wilder, I think we can say that I edged Gameweek 25 on a split decision, got knocked out in Gameweek 27, but then came back with a put down of my own in Gameweek 27. Let’s see if we can improve (and avoid a dreaded negative score) in Gameweeks 28-30.
EPL Points Against – Gameweeks 28-30
With 27 games gone and every team having played 13 or 14 games home and away, I’ve decided to split the graphs to showcase this. For some teams, this is an important distinction: Manchester United, for instance, has an EPL Points Against of 12.31 facing them at home, but 6.66 facing them away (which, to be fair, is still above average). Chelsea, Norwich, Tottenham, Manchester City, and Aston Villa also have sizeable discrepancies that the use of two graphs can now demonstrate. Teams with green bars should be targeted when making your goalkeeper selections, whilst teams with red bars should be avoided.
Gameweek 28 Target
Jordan Pickford (61% ownership, FP/G = 3.83)
Manchester United has burned me a couple of times this season (including two weeks ago with the Caballero call), but this is the only pick that the EPL Points Against suggests given the exclusion criteria of maximum 79% ownership. 13 goalkeepers have faced United at home this season and 10 have scored above average… three have scored north of 20 points! WhoScored have Pickford as the 23rd best goalkeeper out of 24 (minimum 5 league games played), whilst his FP/G is just 3.83 – 22nd best in the league. This is basically EPL Points Against versus Common Sense…let’s go EPL Points Against!
Mat Ryan (48% ownership, FP/G = 5.66)
This second choice is a really tough one, with no other available candidate having an EPL Points against higher than 6. McCarthy away at West Ham (EPL Points Against of 5.92) is tempting, but I don’t like that West Ham found some attacking threat against Liverpool on Monday. Guaita is also one to consider, but I’m going to go with Palace’s opposition goalkeeper, Mat Ryan. This is a big game for Brighton, and I remain a Potter-supporter (both Graham and Harry) – they will show up and Ryan-owners will be rewarded. I think.
Gameweek 29 Target
Dean Henderson (79% ownership, FP/G = 6.91)
The Sheffield United man is coming off two rough performances (fantasy-wise) and then doesn’t play in Gameweek 27, but I expect him to bounce back at home to Norwich in Gameweek 29. Norwich has scored just 1 goal in their last 5 away games and it shows with an EPL Points Against of 9.68 when facing them at home – the second-best scenario going for a goalkeeper. I don’t think they’re down and out of it, relegation-wise, by any stretch of the imagination – 7 points is nothing in this league, and I wouldn’t put it past them to nick something under the Friday night lights at home to Leicester this week. Slight tangent aside, Henderson remains a good pick here.
Rui Patricio (63% ownership, FP/ = 6.04)
Another week with very few options as all the highly owned goalkeepers happen to have very favorable matchups. Next best, according to EPL Points Against, is Pickford, but I’m not backing him two weeks running, whilst third best is Foster away at Crystal Palace. Digging into this one a little deeper reveals that the 7.50 EPL Points Against is largely a product of goalkeepers from top-half teams performing well…which isn’t what Watford/Foster is. So who to pick? Let’s go with Rui Patricio. There’s a lot to like about Wolves, and a home matchup against Brighton has got clean sheet written all over it, right?
Alternatives according to EPL Points Against: Jordan Pickford (61% ownership, FP/G = 3.83, away at Chelsea), Ben Foster (53% ownership, FP/G = 6.20 away at Crystal Palace).
Gameweek 30 Target
Hugo Lloris (78% ownership, FP/G = 8.30)
Okay so this is another goalkeeper facing Manchester United at home, but there’s more to it this time. First off, Lloris is much better than Caballero (who burned me last time) and Pickford (who will no doubt burn me this time). Secondly, it’s Mourinho against United – you know he’ll have a plan. Thirdly the latest ‘Saves Made Minus Goals Against’ table devised by the FFChaps has ‘The Tottenham Goalkeeper’ as the third-best in the league. And fourth, Lloris has had a tendency this season to score better against the better teams (he’s scored 4 points or fewer in 5 of his 6 games against teams ranked 13th to 20th, whilst he’s scored at least 6 points in all 5 of his games against teams ranked in the top 12). That should be enough evidence to support this recommendation.
Dean Henderson (79% ownership, FP/G = 6.91)
This three-week period has definitely been the toughest of the season in terms of picking low-ownership goalkeepers – at least if we’re going by EPL Points Against. If Lloris isn’t available then you better hope Henderson is, because otherwise, your next best option is probably Tim Krul. Actually, that’s unfair because there wasn’t much in it between Krul and Henderson for this selection. I’ve opted for the Sheffield United man because they face Newcastle away, and I think Newcastle’s good fortune is finally over and a slow collapse towards a relegation battle could be on the cards. Maybe I’m wrong. If so, go for Krul. Or someone else entirely!
Alternatives according to EPL Points Against: Tim Krul (16% ownership, FP/G = 5.86, home to Southampton).
(Note, usually targets only include goalkeepers owned in less than 75% of leagues, but as of this writing, that equated to an unusually high nine goalkeepers. As such, for this week, the bar will be set at 80%. This removes Alisson, Leno, Schmeichel, de Gea, and Pope from selection).
Of note…
It’s been a good few weeks for goalkeepers, with a lot of high scores and not many negative ones. The average FP/G has risen from 5.78 to 5.99 – which is a sizeable jump considering how far into the season we are. The discrepancy between home and away has grown too; it’s still not very big, but it may now be enough to tip the balance if you are weighing up two very similar options.
In both Gameweeks 25 and 27, 9 goalkeepers scored over 10 points – the only other time this many scored double digits is the opening weekend of the season. Hugo Lloris scored 26.75 against Manchester City in Gameweek 25 – the highest score by a goalkeeper this season. Tim Krul scored 21 points away at Newcastle –the third time he’s scored over 20 this season.
The Final Whistle
So that’s it for Gameweeks 28-30. The EPL Points Against suggest that you should be targeting the likes of Manchester United, Norwich, and West Ham at home and Chelsea, Everton and Watford away. Steer well clear of Wolves and Tottenham on the road, and Liverpool and Arsenal anywhere! Some specific suggestions have been given above, but even I’m not entirely convinced that I should be backing Pickford! Good luck!
For any of the data used in this article, please feel free to get in touch with me via Twitter (https://twitter.com/the_innergeek). Predominant sources used include www.understat.com, www.premierleague.com, www.sofascore.com, and www.whoscored.com.
Navigating Blank Gameweek 28 is essential for all Fantasy EPL managers! With two games postponed, you need to make a plan!!
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