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Jake Arrieta Finally Signs

The Phillies have signed Jake Arrieta (92nd ADP) to a three-year, $75 million deal. While the Phillies may not necessarily contend in 2018, they are putting the pieces together for a run soon.

The 32-year-old righty’s results declined for a second straight season, with his ERA going from 1.77 (2015) to 3.10 (2016) to 3.53 (2017). Most of the decline is from his fastball going from averaging 94.6 mph to 92.1 mph. Additionally, his strikeout rate has dropped from 27% to 23%. Most of his 2018 value will be tied to stopping this downward trend.

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The rest of his value will be dependent on continuing to post a sub-.300 BABIP. Since joining the Cubs, he’s posted a low .253 BABIP. The key is determining how much of his BABIP is from Arrieta’s talent and how much is from a loaded Cubs team. The Phillies’ defense is a step below the Cubs, so his stats may suffer.

Besides a weaker defense, Arrieta is likely to get less run support from the rebuilding Phillies’ lineup. Finally, he’s going from a neutral home park to one that is hitter friendly. This move is not ideal for Arrieta’s fantasy value. I project a 4.00 ERA and 8.0 K/9 in 2018.

The Phillies don’t have the deepest rotation, so it’s tough to figure out which sub-replacement level arm loses out. Some combination of Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, and Zach Eflin were battling it out for the last two rotation spots. There is just not much fantasy value at the back of this rotation.

Previous Hot Stove Analysis

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Jonathan Lucroy Settles with Oakland

Kansas City Brings Back Mike Moustakas

Royals Replace Hosmer with Lucas Duda

Rangers Add Tim Lincecum to Bullpen

Logan Morrison Finds Home with Twins

Corey Dickerson Traded to Pirates

Marlins Add Cameron Maybin

Rays Sign Carlos Gomez

Yankees, Rays, Diamondbacks Complete Three-Team Trade

Red Sox Sign J.D. Martinez

Padres Land Eric Hosmer

Rays Acquire C.J. Cron, Designate Corey Dickerson

Jake Odorizzi Traded to the Twins

Mets Sign Jason Vargas

Eduardo Nunez Inks Deal with Red Sox

Blue Jays Sign Jaime Garcia

Orioles Sign Andrew Cashner

Cardinals Add Bud Norris to Crowded Bullpen

Cubs Get Their Ace, Sign Yu Darvish

Mets Add Todd Frazier on Two-Year Deal

Diamondbacks Sign Alex Avila

Royals and Athletics Swap Parts

Brewers Sign Lorenzo Cain

Miami Sends Christian Yelich to Brewers

Giants Sign Austin Jackson

Blue Jays Acquire Randal Grichuk

Blue Jays Sign Curtis Granderson

Giants Trade for Andrew McCutchen

Astros Acquire Gerrit Cole

Twins Grab Their Closer, Sign Addison Reed

Mets Bring Back Jay Bruce on Three-Year Deal

Toronto Acquires Yangervis Solarte from San Diego

Royals, Dodgers, and White Sox Complete Three-Way Trade

Rockies Fill Closer Vacancy with Wade Davis

Arizona Adds Bullpen Depth with Yoshihisa Hirano

Indians Fill First-Base Void with Yonder Alonso

Brewers Bolster Rotation with Jhoulys Chacin

Orioles Lose Zach Britton, Brad Brach Likely Closer

Giants Add Evan Longoria, Rays Create a Mess

Red Sox Bring Back Mitch Moreland

CC Sabathia Returns to Yankees

Dodgers-Braves Make Five-Player Trade

Angels in the Infield: Zack Cozart Signs with Los Angeles

Phillies Ink Carlos Santana to Three-Year Deal

Everyone’s Signing Relievers, But Who Will Close?

Angels Trade for Ian Kinsler

Cardinals Finally Get Their Marlins Outfielder

Cubs and Twins Gamble on Smyly and Pineda

Chase Headley Gets Dumped on Padres

Cubs and Cardinals Add Potential Closers

Giancarlo Stanton Joins Yankees

Rockies Sign Chris Iannetta

Angels Land Shohei Ohtani

Tigers Sign Mike Fiers

Dee Gordon Traded to Mariners

Cubs Sign Tyler Chatwood

Rangers Sign Mike Minor

Wellington Castillo Inks Deal with White Sox

Potential Closers Traded: Boxberger and Johnson

Doug Fister Signs with Rangers

Ryon Healy Traded to Mariners

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