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MLB Player Props for Wednesday, April 26

I went 3-0 in my MLB player props a week ago. But that may as well have been a lifetime ago. Back in the good old days, we had pitchers like Madison Bumgarner and Jose Urena whom we could target with impunity. Life was simpler then. Now, neither man is on an MLB roster. Though my job has become considerably more difficult in the last seven days, I cannot make excuses. My goal remains to provide winning picks, and I am here to do just that. Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, April 26.

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MLB Player Props for April 26

Zac Gallen OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-118, FanDuel)

I do not consider myself a strikeout prop guy per se. And it is a bit concerning to trust a guy to rack up a bunch of K’s when he spells “Zac” without one. But Zac Gallen’s total hits allowed prop (5.5 at Caesar’s) comes with a -183 price tag to the under. I love the prop, but I cannot justify paying that price for a single prop. I am OK with using it as part of a parlay if you want to go that route. For now, though, let’s stick to his strikeouts.

Gallen has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of five starts this season. Among those have been two 11-strikeout performances in his two home starts this year. Gallen faces the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday. Kansas City has a 25.7 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this year. That is the fifth-highest mark in MLB. The Royals also lead the Majors with a 13.3 swinging strike percentage. Furthermore, they struggle against the pitches they will likely see from Gallen on Wednesday. Gallen’s primary offerings are the four-seam fastball and the curveball. Kansas City ranks 27th against the fastball and 30th versus the curve in Pitch Value/100, per Fangraphs and Statcast. They also rank 28th against the changeup, which Gallen tends to feature against left-handed batters. Gallen should dominate on Wednesday, and I expect him to punch out a fair amount of Royals in the process.

Domingo German OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-132, FanDuel)

Domingo German has racked up six or more strikeouts in three of four starts this year. That includes an 11-strikeout performance against the Minnesota Twins earlier this month. While I do not expect German to repeat that stat line, I like his chances to go over this number. German struck out six in his lone start against the Twins last season. He has 22 strikeouts against current Twins hitters in just 69 lifetime plate appearances. As was the case with the Royals and Gallen, Minnesota struggles against German’s primary pitches. The Twins rank 29th in Pitch Value against the curveball and 24th against the fastball, per Fangraphs and Sports Info Solutions. Of 145 starters whose arsenals are tracked by Statcast, German throws the curve at the fourth-highest rate.

This contest will also be a day game following a night game. The Twins have not had an off day since last Monday and will not have another until this coming Monday. We may see a couple of extra reserves for Minnesota in Wednesday’s lineup. Another potential factor to consider is the home plate umpire, Chad Whitson. Among 93 umpires who have had the plate for at least 150 games, Whitson’s games have the sixth-highest strikeout rate, at 22.2 percent per Swish Analytics. Their K-Boost metric only ranks him 31st among that subset, but he certainly appears to be a friendly umpire for pitchers. I think Domingo German will be able to record at least six strikeouts on Wednesday.

Paul Goldschmidt OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100, DraftKings)

The game pitting the St. Louis Cardinals against the San Francisco Giants is the final one on Wednesday’s slate. As always, it is best to check lineups before playing any MLB player props. Paul Goldschmidt is one of baseball’s ironmen, so I expect him to be in the lineup on Wednesday. If he is, he should enjoy a big night at the dish. This is not the typical scenario in which I would advocate taking Goldschmidt to go over his total base prop. I usually reserve that for games in which he faces a lefty. However, I cannot ignore the history between Goldschmidt and San Francisco starter Anthony DeSclafani.

Goldy and Tony Disco have squared off 32 times in their careers. Goldschmidt has reached base in 19 of those 32 plate appearances. Five were via walk or hit-by-pitch, which unfortunately does nothing for total base props. However, among Goldschmidt’s 14 hits in 27 official at-bats are seven extra-base hits. Goldschmidt has recorded 25 total bases in 27 at-bats against DeSclafani, good for a .926 slugging percentage. Even if you added the extra plate appearances, that number would still be a formidable .781 mark.

DeSclafani will not have the luxury of pitching around Goldschmidt on Wednesday. Goldschmidt should have the benefit of not one, but two Nolans in tow for protection in the lineup. Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol has recently installed Nolan Gorman as the team’s third-place hitter in the order against righties. Gorman has crushed righties so far this season. He has reached base in 32 of 77 plate appearances and has registered 22 RBI against right-handers. The presence of Gorman and Nolan Arenado should force DeSclafani to have to pitch to Goldschmidt. Based on their history, that is a decided advantage for Goldschmidt. I expect him to continue his dominance over DeSclafani and record at least two total bases on Wednesday.

Potential Bonus MLB Player Props for Wednesday

German Marquez UNDER Strikeouts

This line has not been posted yet as of this writing. I am guessing it will be 4.5. If that is the case, I would strongly lean towards the under. German Marquez is returning after a stint on the Injured List. However, he did not pitch in any rehab starts since the injury, only performing bullpen sessions. I am not sure how high his pitch count will get on Wednesday. The Cleveland Guardians are also the toughest team in MLB to strike out for right-handed pitchers.

Freddy Peralta UNDER Hits Allowed

This MLB player prop has also not been posted as of this writing. If the number is 5.5, I am 100 percent in. If it is 4.5, I still like it, but not as much. Freddy Peralta will face the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday. The Tigers have a 71 wRC+ and a .210 batting average against right-handed pitching this year. Peralta’s wildness could also be a factor here. He has surrendered nine walks through four starts. Detroit is not the most patient team around, but they will draw the occasional walk against righties. Their 8.5 percent walk rate is 19th versus right-handed pitching this season.

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