NASCAR DFS: Cook Out 400 @ Martinsville Speedway

This week, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway for the Cook Out 400 this Sunday afternoon. Martinsville is a .526 mile flat oval that has 12 degrees of banking in the turns and is often referred to as the “paperclip” because of its shape. For the second straight week, teams will be using the new 750-horsepower, lower downforce package.

In this article, we will preview the track from a fantasy angle and then go over five drivers who stand out heading into practice and qualifying.

NASCAR DFS: Cook Out 400

Track Preview & Fantasy Angle

The track setup, which is short, narrow, and flat, creates a racing atmosphere that makes it very tough to pass. This checks out as Martinsville has the highest correlation to starting position of all short flat tracks and 3rd among all tracks in NASCAR. That, in turn, has really limited the place differential as the track sits 23rd among all tracks in the average of drivers to reach double-digit place differential in the NextGen era.

The number one thing we are looking to build around here at Martinsville is dominators. There are 400 laps here in the spring race, and one driver has led 100 or more laps in seven of the eight races in the NextGen era. During that stretch, there has been a driver to lead 150 or more laps in six of eight, and 200 or more laps in four of the eight races. Multiple dominators show a ton as well, with two drivers leading 100+ in six of the eight races.

What does it all mean? We will look to target multiple experienced drivers with strong track history who have the upside to lead 100 or more laps. Almost always, we have seen these drivers come from the top tier of pricing, which then leads to us finding value. This can come in the form of strong practice and qualifying, along with some place differential upside.

Top Pre-Qualifying Targets for DraftKings

Ryan Blaney ($10,700)

Blaney comes into this race sitting second in points and returns to a track he has dominated. In eight races at Martinsville in the NextGen era, Blaney leads all drivers with a 4.3 average finish thanks to two wins, six Top 5’s, and seven Top 10 finishes. He has also been the best driver in the series on short flat tracks tallying four wins, eight Top 5’s and a series-leading 5.6 average finish since the starts of last season(10 races).

Kyle Larson ($10,500)

It has been an inconsistent start to the season for Larson, who is seeking his first win. He bookended three straight Top 10 finishes at Vegas, Phoenix, and COTA with finishes outside of 30th at Atlanta and last week at Darlington. The good news from last week is that before late mechanical issues, he led 20 laps and ran inside the Top 10 for most of the race. More good news as he now returns to Martinsville, where he has reeled off seven straight finishes of 6th or better and has the 2nd best average finish(5.4) in the NextGen era.

Chase Elliott ($9,700)

Eliott checks every box and comes in at #2 in my pre-qualifying rankings this week. He has been terrific here at Martinsville with four straight finishes of 4th or better, and also has the 4th best average finish(7.5) in the NextGen era. He has been solid on short flat tracks with four Top 5’s and six Top 10’s in the last 10 races on the track type and comes in with the 2nd best average finish(10.3) on the season after six races.

Ryan Preece ($8,100)

Looking again at the salary trends, Preece has reached a season-high and is 12th in pricing this week. That is right in line with his performance so far this season, as he is 11th in average finish(14.8). He now returns to Martinsville, where he has been very consistent, finishing 20th or better in all six races here and has the 9th best average finish(11.8) over that stretch. He has not provided a high floor, but also flashed a ton of upside here with Top 10’s in both races last year and three of his last four at the track.

Ross Chastain ($7,300)

Across eight races here at Martinsville in the NextGen era, Chastain has yet to finish worse than 14th and has tallied five Top 10’s and a 8.6 average finish(5th best). The better news here is the price this week, as he has reached a season low of $7,300, and it’s the first time under $8K. The price drop does reflect the slow start to the season, as Chastain has failed to record a finish better than 16th since his runner-up at Atlanta. No better place for him to rebound, and the price leaves a ton of PTS/$ upside this week.