After back-to-back races on intermediate tracks, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Martinsville Speedway for the Cook Out 400 this Sunday afternoon. It is the second race on a short/flat track, but it couldn’t be more different than Phoenix. Martinsville is commonly referred to as the paperclip due to it’s shape with long straightaways and very tight turns on both ends.
The track does join Richmond and Phoenix as three of the Top 5 toughest tracks to pass when looking at starting position correlation and lead changes. The “tough to pass” narrative also holds up when looking at the average number of drivers that tally double-digit place differential, ranking 22nd of 26 tracks in that area.
From a fantasy perspective, this is one of the highest dominator tracks in NASCAR due to the combination of tough passing and a ton of laps(500). Looking at previous races, there have been two drivers to tally 100 or more laps led in nine of the last 10 races here. The laps led have started to spread more over time as a streak of 10 straight races with one driver getting 200+ laps led came to an end in 2023 and is up to four straight without. On the flip side, since the NextGen car was introduced in 2022, the average double-digit place differential has been 6.0 versus a 5.4 average over the last 10 races.
With all that said, let’s take a look at some trends and then some top pre-qualifying targets.
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Track History
From a career track history standpoint, it is Denny Hamlin leading in almost every category among active drivers. He leads in wins(5), Top 5’s(20), Top 10’s(26), and laps led(2,448). Ryan Blaney is tied for 2nd with two wins and has been the most consistent driver here with a series-best 8.3 average finish.
Looking at just the NextGen era(2022-present), Ryan Blaney has been the most dominant driver at Martinsville with two wins and an elite 3.5 average finish over those six races. Not too far behind(5.3 average finish) is his teammate Joey Logano who is the only other driver with a Top 10 in all six races. Kyle Larson comes in 3rd with a 5.5 average finish and has finished 6th or better in five straight including a win and four podium finishes. From a dominator perspective, Chase Elliott stands out with a series-leading 515 laps led in those six races and finished 3rd and 2nd in 2024.
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Track Type History
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are the only two active drivers with double-digit career wins on short tracks and also rank #1 and #2 in career average finish on short tracks.
Looking more specifically at short/flat tracks since the start of 2024, Kyle Larson leads the way with a 8.4 average finish despite no wins. Three drivers in Christopher Bell(3), Ryan Blaney(2), and Joey Logano(2) are the only drivers with multiple wins on the track type during that stretch. Bell not only leads in wins but also leads the series with 796 laps led and a DraftKings average of 68.9 during that stretch.
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Form
Like I mentioned in the intro, Hendrick Motorsports has been on fire to start the season with William Byron(8.7), Alex Bowman(9.5), and Kyle Larson(11.3) leading the way in terms of average finish. Bowman tallying four straight Top 10s has really pushed him up the rankings, while a bit of a surprise to see Chris Buescher in 4th with an 11.8 average finish despite no wins and just one Top 5. Christopher Bell is coming off a 29th-place finish at Homestead but is still the only driver with multiple wins on the season, and he also won the first short/flat track race back in Phoenix. While Chase Elliott has yet to show his upside with just one Top 5 and three Top 10, he is the only driver with a Top 20 in all six races this season, which has him sitting 7th in average finish(12.8).
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Top Targets
Ryan Blaney (DK $11,200 / FD $14,00)
It has been a slow and likely frustrating start to the 2025 season for Ryan Blaney. After dominating the early stages of the race last week in Homestead, he blew an engine and ended up with his second straight DNF. The good news is that his average running position(13.5) is eight places better than his average finish(21.5) on the season, and the laps led last week is a great sign they are finally finding some dominant speed. That is perfect timing as he returns to a track he has dominated, winning two of the last three, and is one of just two drivers to finish Top 10 in all six races here in the NextGen car.
He is the most expensive driver on both sites this week, so he will either have to show dominating speed or give us double-digit place differential upside. Stay tuned during practice and qualifying on Saturday.
Kyle Larson (DK $11,000 / FD $13,500)
Early on it feels like lineup construction will be heavy stars and scrubs, at least for me, as the top guys jump off the page. Kyle Larson is right behind Blaney in salary and actually checks more boxes this week. The difference is the form, as Larson is coming off his first win of the season last week in Homestead and is one of three drivers with three Top 5s in the first six races. He is also 3rd and 4th in DraftKings and FanDuel average scoring, respectively. His track history here at Martinsville is nearly as good as Blaney’s, as well, with a win(2023) and five straight finishes of 6th or better with four podium finishes and a 5.5 average finish. He has no wins on a short/flat track since that 2023 win at Martinsville, but has been extremely consistent. Over the last 11 races since the start of 2024, Larson has tallied a series-leading six Top 5’s, nine Top 10s, and an 8.4 average finish.
Chris Buescher(DK $7,400 / FD $6,800)
In the value range, Buescher stands out early on, checking almost all the boxes. He is off to a terrific start to the season with four Top 10s and the fourth-best average finish(11.8) through the first six races. His track history here at Martinsville has been very up and down, but his overall short/flat history has been terrific with four Top 5’s, six Top 10s, and 10 Top 20 finishes since the start of 2024. I will be looking for some place differential upside with Buescher and if it’s there, I will have plenty of exposure at these prices.
