It was another dominant performance from Christopher Bell in the #20 Joe Gibbs Racing car last week as he led 105 laps en route to his third straight win. Another storyline from the Phoenix race came in the form of the option tire that was used and the differing strategies that went along with that. It brough mixed reviews from drivers, teams, and race fans but I loved the added element of strategy it brought. Either way, there is not another option tire race scheduled this season so we move on. This Sunday NASCAR heads to Sin City and Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400. This marks the fifth race of the season and is also the fifth different track type as drivers will take on the first mile-and-a-half, intermediate track of 2025. Let’s start with some track and track type trends.
Looking at Las Vegas Motor Speedway track history, we have seen the winner come from a Top 5 starting position in four of the last five races. Vegas is definitely a dominator track as we have seen one driver lead 100+ laps in four straight races here and three of those races saw a second driver lead 50 or more laps, as well. In terms of place differential, there have been eight or more drivers who have picked up double-digit place differential in four of the six races at LVMS. This is after four of the previous six races had seen four or fewer drivers picking up double-digit place differential.
Like short/flat tracks, practice data becomes very important when trying to predict which cars have the best shot at dominating and finishing up front. When breaking it down further, Las Vegas specifically has shown a high correlation between practice speeds and finish position and then going further a high correlation between 10-lap averages and lap leaders. Ultimately, I will be building around 2-3 drivers who have the best dominator potential and then filling in with place differential upside and value plays. Based on track and track type history, it appears we will be building stars and scrubs lineups again this week looking for two drivers in the top tier in almost every lineup.
While we wait for practice and qualifying let’s have a look at some pre-qualifying rankings in my model:
- William Byron
- Christopher Bell
- Denny Hamlin
- Alex Bowman
- Kyle Larson
- Tyler Reddick
- Ross Chastain
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- Chase Elliott
Let’s now jump in and have a look at some of my top pre-qualifying targets for this week.
Pennzoil 400 Picks: Top Targets
Christopher Bell (DK $10,700 / FD $13,500)
I tried to get cute last week at Phoenix fading Bell and won’t make that mistake again. He and the #20 team look unstoppable at the moment and all signs point towards another strong run in Las Vegas. While he has yet to win here at LVMS he has Top 5 finishes in three of his last four races on the track including runner-up finishes in two of his last three and also led a race-high 155 laps in the fall race last year. Bell also closed out 2024 with five straight Top 7 finishes on mile and a half tracks including a win at the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte.
I will be watching closely during practice and outside of a noticeable lack of speed, Bell will be in my core and should have a great shot at becoming the 9th driver in the modern era to win four in a row!
Kyle Larson (DK $10,500 / FD $14,000)
Like I mentioned in the opening, I feel three strategy this week will be to load up on two drivers in the top tier. While practice and qualifying will ultimately determine which two are my favourites, I feel Larson and #5 team have a the best shot at knocking Bell off the top of the podium this week. I say this as Larson checks all the boxes starting with his history here. During the Next Gen car era(2022-present), he has two wins, two runner-ups, and a series-leading 405 laps led at Las Vegas. While he wasn’t the most consistent on the mile and a half tracks last season(12.9 avg fin), he did have two wins and a series-leading 601 laps led. Those dominator points also boosted him to the #1 spot in terms of DraftKings scoring during those 10 races.
This race has all the makings of an elite driver duel and Bell/Larson is my top pre-qualifying stack combo.
Ross Chastain (DK $8,300 / FD $9,500)
Since the move to Trackhouse Racing back in 2022, Ross Chastain leads all drivers with five Top 10’s, four Top 5’s, and a 5.5 average finish over those six races. He is second behind Larson in average DraftKings scoring(58.5) due to dominator points but leads all drivers in average FanDuel scoring(68.5). Chastain was also consistent overall on mile and a half tracks with the 5th best average finish(11.0) and also led 143 laps. After a 40th place finish at the Daytona 500, he has also started trending towards the front with finishes of 8th, 12th, and 11th over the last three races.
There is a some risk here with the slower start to the season but the price is right in the mid tier so pay close attention during practice and qualifying this week.
John Hunter Nemechek (DK $5,500/ FD $4,800)
If we are going to lock in a stars and scrubs lineup build this week we will need some value guys to make it work. Enter John Hunter Nemechek who checks a lot of boxes this week. He is having an excellent start to the season with a Top 5, two Top 10’s, and no finish worse than 22nd. He is coming off a terrific run at at Phoenix where he finished 14th and now returns to Las Vegas where he has been very consistent considering the equipment. He finished 9th in the fall race last year and has finished each of his four trips to Las Vegas inside the Top 25. Ideally, we will want him starting outside the Top 20 so stay tuned for qualifying on Saturday.
