NFL DraftKings Plays: Week 11

Another DraftKings slate is upon us for Week 11 of the NFL. There is some weather to worry about this week. We also have an international game this morning, but with only two teams on bye, it will not significantly impact the slate. Except for the running back position, one of those bye weeks is the Indianapolis Colts, so no Jonathan Taylor on the slate. That will shake things up, as we will have to look elsewhere.

Speaking of things that will shake up the slate. The highest projected team this week for points is the Pittsburgh Steelers at 27 points. Going against the Cincinnati Bengals will do wonders for any offense in the league. Even ones that are sputtering like the Steelers. Other teams near the top on this Sunday include the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Minnesota Vikings. So, expect a few players from those offenses to be included here.

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Favorite DraftKings Plays for Week 11

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (6.3K)

Diving into the best DraftKings main slate plays for Week 11, with Justin Herbert leading the list. This pick would have been Jameis Winston, but the weather may cause problems in that matchup with gusts up to 40 miles per hour. Herbert is now facing a secondary that is giving up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Chargers run the most plays per game in the NFL at 66. And the team passes at the second-highest rate over expected. At the same time, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed the highest pass rate over expected in the league. This matchup is an absolute smash spot for Justin Herbert and company. I expect a massive score for Herbert and the Chargers today.

Play to Consider: J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (5.2K)

Calling McCarthy a contrarian play today would just be false. Even though public perception of McCarthy has swung wildly across the pendulum over the past few weeks, he will still be popular on today’s slate, from his decent showing against Detroit to his subpar performance against Baltimore. Now he gets a favorable matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Bears are allowing the seventh-most passing yards in the league, along with the third-most fantasy points to the position. McCarthy’s best quarter of the season has come against this weak Bears defense back in Week 1. That quarter led him to a QB11 finish. I think McCarthy will hit value on DraftKings in Week 11.

Running Back

Favorite Play: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (6.1K)

Speaking of the weather, Jaylen Warren was going to be my favorite play of the slate regardless. The projected 30 to 35 miles per hour gusts only amplify that. Bad weather and facing the worst rush defense in the league, the Cincinnati Bengals, feel like a spot that is too good to be true. Cincinnati is allowing 30.8 fantasy points to opposing running backs, which is over six more fantasy points than the team in second place. They are also giving up the second-most estimated points added against the run. Warren will be popular today, but he is well worth the salary on DraftKings.

Contrarian Play: Nick Chubb, Houston Texans (4.7K)

I know how this must sound. Woody Marks looks like he took over the backfield in Week 10. Despite how the game turned out, I believe this is a great buy-low spot on DraftKings for Chubb. The game script was not in favor of Chubb, as the Jaguars had a 17-point lead by the beginning of the second quarter. Now, they take on the Tennessee Titans, a more favorable game script for Nick Chubb. They are only slight favorites, but Chubb should be more involved in the game plan this week. This play is purely speculative as sportsbooks believe Marks has completed the takeover. The backfield split could come back to earth in a more positive script, however.

Wide Receiver

Favorite Play: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (8.5K)

Just a few weeks back, we saw Chase post 41.1 DraftKings points on 23 targets against the Steelers in a Thursday night game. Now, they are almost touchdown underdogs against a banged-up Steelers secondary. There are some weather concerns, as I previously mentioned. However, Chase’s average depth of target (8.31) is the lowest of the wide receivers on the team. They will scheme him the ball in space, and even get him the ball in the screen game. If the weather scares you, Puka Nacua and Jaxson Smith-Njigba are great pivots in the same range, in what should be the best game of the week.

Contrarian Play: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (6.4K)

Week one against the Buffalo Bills feels like a lifetime ago. In that game, Zay Flowers scored 31.1 DraftKings points. Since then, he has not eclipsed 15 DraftKings points in a game. In the first matchup against the Cleveland Browns, Flowers had 11 targets while Lamar Jackson threw four touchdowns. The Browns are giving up the 19th most fantasy points to wide receivers. And while that sounds discouraging, they are giving up the third-least to running backs. So the way to beat the Browns is through the air. And without Rashod Bateman and Justice Hill, Flowers could see an even better target share than his team-leading 28.9% target share. Zay Flowers will likely go overlooked on this slate due to the projected weather and opponent. And he will be a leverage play, especially if the weather is better than expected for the afternoon kickoff.

Tight End

Favorite Play: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (5K)

Kittle gets his quarterback this week. Brock Purdy will get his third start of the year this week. He has been battling injury for most of the season, and now will step in against the Arizona Cardinals. And for the one part of a game we did get these two together this season, it was magic. Kittle had four catches for 25 yards and a touchdown in the first half. I expect Kittle to receive a heavy target share. Kittle is coming off a game where he scored 23.4 DraftKings points against the Los Angeles Rams. Expect Purdy to look Kittle’s way early and often in this potential high-scoring matchup in Arizona.

Contrarian Play: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (3.2K)

The Bengals are not great against the tight end position, allowing the most points to the position, and the Steelers have put a heavy emphasis on the position this year. The passing game has lacked a second wide receiver option for the season. The offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, has used all three at the position this year. They all scored touchdowns on that Thursday night. And Freiermuth has historically owned the Bengals. He has had ten or more targets in four of his last six games against the team. And I expect him to be heavily involved in the pass game again against a lackluster Bengals defense.

Final Thoughts

Keep an eye on the weather as we approach the end of the season. Wind will be an increasing factor in these matchups. It also creates great contrarian options, considering the weather could change at any time. Being creative is key; we just saw a triple stack with Baker Mayfield win the million-dollar contest last week. That lineup also had TreVeyon Henderson as a bring-back. Therefore, selecting a game is a viable option, and nothing is out of the realm of possibility. Happy crafting, and I wish everyone the best of luck for this Week 11 NFL DraftKings slate.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 11 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!