Week 17 of the NFL offers us a wide-open DraftKings slate. The afternoon slate has only two games, including one that neither team wants to win, according to the injury reports. And the other game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills will be the most significant weather concern on the slate, with heavy rain and high winds.
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As far as projected points go, we only have one game projected over 50 points, and that is between the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals. Outside of that matchup, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts stand out with 48.5 projected points, with no other games over 45. We will start with our favorite quarterback, who, naturally, will come from the highest-scoring game of the week. Sportsbooks have this quarterback project to throw three touchdowns against a weak Cardinals defense today.
Favorite DraftKings NFL plays for Week 16
Quarterback
Favorite Play: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (6.5K)
Joe Burrow is trying to reignite the fun in playing football. And he did that against the Miami Dolphins last week, throwing for 309 yards and four touchdowns. With the only team on the main slate with a projected total over 30 points, the Arizona Cardinals’ defense is in a similar spot. The team gives up the 11th most passing touchdowns. And in the last four games, they have given up nine passing touchdowns. Look for Burrow to continue his hot streak against a secondary that will be missing star safety Budda Baker.
Contrarian Play: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (4.9K)
Bryce Young is taking on the Seattle Seahawks today. And they are the ninth-best defense against quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford did throw for 450 yards against them last week. However, he is the MVP, and that performance should be treated as an outlier. Even with that outlier performance, the way to beat is through the passing game. The Seahawks are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game. They are 14th against the pass. And with Young and the Panthers being touchdown underdogs, we could see 40 passing attempts at a very affordable salary on DraftKings. Stack him with Tetairoa McMillan and put Jaxon Smith-Njigba for a high-upside game stack.
Running Back
Favorite Play: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (7.6K)
A rainy mess of a game against the defense that is 31st in estimated points added against the run. That sounds like the perfect storm for Barkley to outperform his DraftKings salary. Barkley has been finding his stride as of late. He has scored in his last three games and has had over 120 rushing yards in two of those games. In what will be a rainy and windy environment in upstate New York, the Eagles will have to lean on Barkley in this one. The Eagles have the fourth-highest run percentage heading into Week 17, and I do not see that changing in this game.
Contrarian Play: Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers (5.6K)
With the lowest projected total of the week at 34.5. Most DraftKings users will stay away from this game. And I don’t blame them, as this one has all of the makings of a low-scoring game. That alone creates the perfect leverage spot. Pair that with D.K. Metcalf’s suspension, and Gainwell presents serious upside in this AFC North clash. Gainwell has the sixth most targets at the running back position this season. Despite their excellent defense, they have been middle of the pack against the running back position. Allowing the 16th most points to the position. Gainwell has the best odds to score a touchdown and will be heavily involved in the pass game. He has registered three straight RB1 performances, and I believe he makes it a fourth today.
Wide Receiver
Favorite Play: Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (7.2K)
Drafting Tyler Shough and giving Chris Olave competent quarterback play has unlocked the talented Ohio State receiver. Olave was targeted 16 times last week against the New York Jets. And now he will walk into another matchup that is just as soft. The Tennessee Titans allow the fifth-most estimated points added through the air. Entering this week, Olave has the second-most targets of any receiver this season. Olave offers a high floor with the amount of targets he sees every week, but also provides an elite ceiling, as we saw last week, when he scored 39.8 DraftKings points. The WR3 overall in expected fantasy points per game is a fantastic play on DraftKings in a game where Kellen Moore and company will lean on him to help continue Tyler Shough’s development.
Contrarian Play: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (5.2K)
It has been a year to forget for Brian Thomas Jr. The second-year receiver will likely see his yards per game drop by 25 yards per game from his stellar rookie season. It is unclear what has happened this season, but Jakobi Meyers has stepped into this offense and become the WR1. However, Thomas has a great chance to reassert himself against a familiar opponent. The Indianapolis Colts, against whom Thomas Jr. finds great success. In his three career games against the team, he averages 104 receiving yards per game. The Colts are also allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. At a DraftKings salary of $5,200, I am willing to roll the dice on hoping this talented receiver replicates his last three performances against a weak secondary.
Tight End
Favorite Play: Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals (7.5K)
We are running it back from last week with McBride. Teammate Elijah Higgins outscored the star tight end in what was a surprising turn of events. However, that will not happen again this week. As we all know, the Cincinnati Bengals allow the most fantasy points to the position. So congratulations if you advanced a team with McBride on it in DraftKings best ball or regular fantasy. The Bengals have given up 15 touchdowns to the position, with the second-closest team being 11 by the Miami Dolphins. And I am confident McBride will extend that lead in a dream matchup, while also being touchdown underdogs. Even with McBride’s astronomical DraftKings salary, it is worth it with how high his ceiling is in this dream matchup in the most crucial week of the season for some.
Contrarian Play: Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (3.3K)
Okonkwo is quietly putting up a nice season with Cam Ward in Tennessee. Despite splitting time with Gunnar Helm, Okonkwo is on pace for almost 600 yards in what was a rough offense for the majority of the season. In the past two weeks, he has had the seventh-most targets at the position with 14. Even with the New Orleans Saints being above average against the position, Okonkwo has enough of a role at just a modest salary of $3,300 on DraftKings to be worth a look in lineups.
Final Thoughts
This week will be the last normal week on DraftKings till next season. Next week, teams will end up sitting players as seeding is most likely set. Save for the inevitable Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers game for the number one seed. However, we can expect one to be flexed out of the main slate. Then we move on to the playoffs, where slates will either be extremely short or run for a full two to three days. So enjoy this last slate of the season, and keep a close eye on the Buffalo game, as that is where DraftKings users can gain the most leverage if the weather does not turn out as predicted. I wish everyone the best of luck, and here’s to taking down a GPP on the last regular slate of the season.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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