Welcome to the first NFL game of the year! We are giving our viewers an extra-special Wednesday edition of our TNF Player Props.
Usually, every Thursday, we will drop a player prop article featuring some of our favorite props to use across different betting platforms. This week, we are giving you a bonus article since the first NFL game of the season falls on a Wednesday.
A lot of these player props are based on what the betting websites are offering, along with data-driven analysis to explain why they could end up being great bets.
If you enjoy this article, make sure to come back tomorrow to check out our true Thursday Night Football Player Props!
Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
Wednesday Night Football Player Props
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks
- Seattle Seahawks are favored (-3.5) over the New England Patriots
- Total Over/Under: 44.5
Player Props | Best Bets
| Player | Prop | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rushing Yards | Under 56.5 | -110 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Receiving Yards | Over 22.5 | -130 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Receptions | Over 3.5 | +115 |
| Hunter Henry | Receiving Yards | Over 34.5 | -110 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Receptions | Over 6.5 | +100 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Receiving Yards | Over 81.5 | -110 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Anytime TD | Yes | +130 |
| Cooper Kupp | Receiving Yards | Over 26.5 | -110 |
| A.J. Brown | Anytime TD | Yes | +165 |
| Sam Darnold | Passing TDs | Under 1.5 | -120 |
These are the player props that make the most sense in terms of data-driven analysis.
Rhamondre Stevenson should lead the Patriots’ backfield and could see an uptick in opportunity with TreVeyon Henderson OUT for this game. Even with that being said, look to take the under on 56.5 rushing yards. Stevenson only eclipsed 56 rushing yards twice last season, with one of those coming in Week 18. Seattle was a top-three run defense, allowing only 72 rushing yards per game.
In the same breath, Seattle allowed the most receptions to running backs and ranked in the top 10 in receiving yards allowed to the position. The additions at receiver should help open things up underneath for Stevenson, allowing him to get over 3.5 receptions while also producing over 22.5 receiving yards. In their last matchup just seven months ago, Stevenson surpassed both props with five receptions for 40 yards.
Hunter Henry should be a safety valve for Drake Maye in this game, as Seattle was a favorable matchup for tight ends last year, allowing 63.5 receiving yards per game to the position. Henry had 10 contests last season with over 34 receiving yards. Look for Henry to get over 34.5 receiving yards in this matchup.
A.J. Brown will play his first game as a Patriot, and it should be a good one. QB Drake Maye had a 6.3% touchdown rate last year, which ranked near the top among quarterbacks. Additionally, 54% of Maye’s passing touchdowns went to his wide receivers. I’d look for Josh McDaniels to get his new WR1 involved early in the offense and give Brown opportunities in the end zone. Take a shot on Brown to score an anytime touchdown.
On Seattle’s side, I’d be looking at star players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba to perform in Week 1. Despite a tough Patriots secondary, Smith-Njigba should still be fed the ball. There were only five games last season in which Smith-Njigba didn’t get over 6.5 receptions, and he should have an opportunity to rack up the yardage after averaging 4.6 yards after the catch per reception last year. Look for Smith-Njigba to go over 6.5 receptions and over 82.5 receiving yards against the Patriots.
The Patriots were also tied for the fifth-most receiving touchdowns allowed, giving up a touchdown per game to the receiver position. Smith-Njigba accounted for 36% of Sam Darnold’s passing touchdowns last season. Look for Smith-Njigba to find the end zone and score an anytime touchdown in Week 1.
Veteran Cooper Kupp remains the WR2 in the Seattle offense. He was able to get over 26.5 receiving yards in 11 of his 17 games played last year. Kupp also led the team with 61 receiving yards against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. While the Patriots’ secondary is solid overall, Kupp’s receiving yards prop should be one to take a chance on.
Lastly, quarterback Sam Darnold should finish under 1.5 passing touchdowns against the Patriots. Darnold was not a big touchdown passer last season, finishing above that mark in only eight of 17 games. He now faces a strong Patriots secondary that held quarterbacks under 1.5 passing touchdowns per game last year. Look for New England to keep Darnold under 1.5 passing touchdowns.
My Preferred Parlay for This Matchup (+1700)
- Rhamondre Stevenson — Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson — Over 3.5 Receptions
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Anytime Touchdown
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Over 6.5 Receptions
- Hunter Henry — Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
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