NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Player Props and Best Bets

Welcome back for Week 10! Hopefully, you were able to take advantage of some of our winning player props from last Thursday night’s games.

As we get deeper into the 2026 NFL season, we now have seven weeks of data to better understand team tendencies, player usage, and favorable matchups. These advanced statistics should help us identify valuable player props and give us a better chance to keep the momentum rolling every Thursday night. Let’s dive into this week’s best opportunities!

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Picks from Week 9 TNF

We went 4-for-10 on our player prop picks in Week 9. Trevor Lawrence going over his passing yardage line by just 6 yards was frustrating, especially since he finished with 0 rushing yards on Thursday Night Football. With the Ravens falling behind early, Derrick Henry was pulled in the early 4th quarter, hurting our pick. Henry finished with 16 carries, 11 of which came before halftime. Meanwhile, Justice Hill recorded the receptions we needed but managed only half of his projected receiving yardage. Zay Flowers also struggled in the heavy rain, finishing with 3 receptions for just 6 yards. It was a disappointing week overall, but we’re looking to bounce back with a stronger showing and more winning picks this week.

Check out all of our Week 10 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings

Week 10 Thursday Night Football Player Props

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

• New York Giants are favored (-2.5) over the Washington Commanders
• Total Over/Under: 47.5

We have a divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. These teams have already faced each other once this season, battling to a 27-27 tie. Expect weather to play a factor in this game.

Starting with the Giants, quarterback J.J. McCarthy enters this matchup without an injury designation, which is great news after he missed time last week. McCarthy faces a Commanders defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for over 210 passing yards in 4 consecutive games. McCarthy has surpassed this line in 2 of his 3 games, with his only miss coming in a game where he left early due to injury. While it was a different quarterback in their previous meeting, the Giants torched Washington’s secondary for over 300 passing yards. I’m taking McCarthy over 204.5 passing yards.

Sticking with McCarthy, the Commanders have allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. In 5 of their 8 games, Washington has allowed an opposing quarterback to rush for at least 20 yards, including every road game this year. McCarthy has shown some mobility himself, surpassing 20 rushing yards in 2 of his 3 games. Washington likes to pressure opposing quarterbacks, which could create opportunities for McCarthy to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs. I’m taking McCarthy over 15.5 rushing yards.

Moving over to McCarthy’s No. 1 receiver, Malik Nabers, who should thrive against this Commanders secondary. In their previous meeting, Nabers dominated Washington with 121 receiving yards. The Commanders have allowed a receiver to surpass 90 yards in 5 of their 8 games this season. I expect McCarthy to lean heavily on Nabers to move the football, especially with how vulnerable Washington has been against opposing receivers. Nabers has surpassed this line in 4 of his last 5 games, so give me Nabers over 69.5 receiving yards.

Isaiah Likely has been a beast this season, and his receiving yardage prop looks very achievable. Likely has surpassed this line in 4 of his last 5 games. Before last week’s matchup, the Commanders had allowed an opposing tight end to record over 50 receiving yards in 3 consecutive games. One of those performances came from Likely himself, who finished with 94 yards against Washington. Likely has established himself as the Giants’ No. 2 receiving option, especially with Malachi Fields and Darnell Mooney struggling to earn consistent targets and opportunities. I expect Likely to continue benefiting from his role and finish over 44.5 receiving yards.

Our final Giants player prop focuses on Cam Skattebo, who is off the injury report and ready to go for Week 10. I’ve been mentioning almost every week that Thursday Night Football running backs continue to find the end zone, with at least one starting running back scoring a touchdown in nearly every matchup this season. That trend has continued, and I expect it to carry over into this divisional matchup. Unlike the Giants, who have been better at limiting rushing touchdowns, the Commanders have allowed a rushing touchdown in 3 consecutive games. With Skattebo healthy and expected to handle the workload, I’m taking Skattebo to score an anytime touchdown.

Along with finding the end zone, Skattebo should also have a strong chance of surpassing his rushing yardage prop. With rain expected in New Jersey, we could see both teams lean more heavily on their rushing attacks than usual. Skattebo has surpassed this line in all but 1 game this season, showing just how consistent he’s been on the ground. The Commanders have also allowed an opposing running back to surpass this rushing total in 4 of their last 5 games. With Skattebo healthy and expected to handle a significant workload, I’m trusting him to continue his strong production and finish over 53.5 rushing yards.

Switching over to the Commanders, we start with quarterback Jayden Daniels, one of the league’s most dangerous mobile quarterbacks. Daniels consistently uses his legs as a weapon, and the Giants have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks when they’ve faced them. In his last matchup against New York, Daniels rushed for over 100 yards. He has also surpassed this rushing line in all 4 of his career games against the Giants. The concern is that Daniels has cleared this number in only 2 of his 6 games this season, although one of those performances came against New York. It’s a riskier play, but the matchup history is difficult to ignore. I’m taking Daniels over 33.5 rushing yards.

Next is tight end Chig Okonkwo, who has benefited from Daniels returning to the starting lineup. The veteran tight end has surpassed this receiving yardage line in 3 of his last 4 games. The Giants have also struggled against opposing tight ends in recent weeks, allowing over 45 receiving yards to the position in 3 of their last 4 contests. With Okonkwo becoming a more reliable option in Washington’s passing attack, I like his chances of continuing that production. Give me Okonkwo over 36.5 receiving yards.

Our next prop focuses on running back Rachaad White, and this is a risky pick. The Giants have allowed an opposing running back to record double-digit carries in every game this season. Interestingly, the lowest carry total by an opposing running back against New York was 11, which came from Washington in their previous meeting. White has surpassed this line only once this season, but he has also been the starter for just 3 games. I’m willing to trust the matchup and weather situation, so I’m taking White over 11.5 rushing attempts.

Finally, we’re closing out our Thursday Night Football player props with Stefon Diggs to score an anytime touchdown. Diggs has found the end zone in 4 of his 7 games this season and has scored in every road game he’s played. He also leads all Commanders pass catchers in red-zone targets, making him one of Daniels’ most trusted options when Washington gets close to the end zone. With Diggs consistently earning opportunities in scoring situations, I expect Daniels to look his way when it matters most. Give me Diggs to score an anytime touchdown in Week 10.

Preferred Parlay for This Matchup (+2200)

• Malik Nabers — Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
• Chig Okonkwo — Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
• Cam Skattebo — Anytime Touchdown
• Jayden Daniels — Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
• Cam Skattebo — Over 53.5 Rushing Yards

Make sure to check out all of our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!