NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football Player Props and Best Bets

Welcome back for Week 4! Hopefully, you took advantage of some of our player props that hit during last Thursday night’s games.

Now that we have a week of football behind us, we can start using data-driven statistics from the 2026 season to better understand these teams and players. That should give us an even better chance of finding player props that can hit each Thursday night.

Picks from Week 3 TNF

We went 7 of 10 on our picks. Unfortunately, they didn’t need Bijan Robinson catching passes since he was doing most of his damage on the ground, while the majority of the targets went to Drake London. The Kaleb Johnson under 0.5 receiving yards was too good to be true, as he ended up recording just the second catch of his career. The Packers’ offense was shaky in the red zone, and Tucker Kraft never really got a chance to find the end zone.

Also if you took my suggested parlay then we hit! Lets do it again in Week 4.

Let’s dive into our favorite player props for Week 4 of Thursday Night Football!

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Week 4 Thursday Night Football Player Props

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

• Pittsburgh Steelers are favored (-2.5) over the Cleveland Browns
• Total Over/Under: 38.5

As low-scoring as last week’s TNF matchup was supposed to be, many can agree these two teams aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts either, so we could be in for a rough one.

Starting off with veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw all over another divisional rival in Week 3 while tossing 3 touchdowns. Rodgers now faces a Browns defense that has been inconsistent against fantasy quarterbacks to start the season. Rodgers has also performed well on TNF, with 7 straight games dating back to 2019 with at least 2 passing touchdowns. The Steelers are throwing the ball at the 6th-highest rate in the league after ranking 17th last season, giving Rodgers plenty of opportunities through the air. I like his chances to throw over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Next up is Jaylen Warren, who should have a chance to sneak into the end zone in Week 4. It may seem like a tough ask since the Browns haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season, while Warren has yet to score one himself. However, we’ve seen a running back score a touchdown on TNF for 4 of the 6 teams that have played so far. Without Rico Dowdle, Warren saw 3 red-zone opportunities in Week 3, giving him a legitimate chance to find the end zone. I’m taking a shot on Warren to score an anytime touchdown.

I’m also staying with Warren in the receiving game. Warren faces a Browns defense that has allowed at least 22 receiving yards to a running back in back-to-back games. Warren has been heavily involved in the Steelers’ passing offense, seeing 14 targets through 3 games while surpassing 22 receiving yards in every game. Rodgers has targeted the backfield on 18% of his pass attempts, and the Steelers rank 3rd in receiving yards by running backs in 2026. Warren going over 22.5 receiving yards is one of my favorite TNF props.

Next up is Roman Wilson, who may not be a name many fantasy managers are familiar with. The former 3rd-round pick from the 2024 NFL Draft has quietly gotten off to a nice start this season. Wilson has the 2nd-most targets on the team with 18 while leading the offense with 114 receiving yards. He did see his snap share decrease with Michael Pittman Jr. back on the field, but Wilson has still managed to average 6 targets per game. In Week 3, Wilson was targeted on 6 of his 18 routes, showing that the offense is making an effort to get the ball in his hands even with fewer opportunities. Wilson has cleared both of these lines in all 3 games this season, and I’ll ride that trend against an average Browns secondary. Give me Wilson over 2.5 receptions and over 19.5 receiving yards on TNF.

We move over to the Browns, who have gotten off to a solid start this season. One player who hasn’t is Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy currently has just a 6% target share through 3 games, catching only 2 passes for 26 yards during that span. The Browns have focused more on their younger receivers, leaving Jeudy running routes at just a 73% rate. Despite his past success against the Steelers, I’m taking the under on 14.5 receiving yards due to his lack of targets. His 0.07 TPRR ranks 151st out of 162 qualified receivers, making it difficult to trust him to produce, which is what we want.

One receiver who has dominated for the Browns is rookie Denzel Boston. He currently has 15 receptions for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Steelers’ secondary has struggled against fantasy receivers over the last 2 weeks, allowing 3 different receivers to surpass 90 yards during that span. The Steelers will be without Joey Porter Jr. and possibly Jalen Ramsey in this game. Pittsburgh also ranks 16th in YPRR allowed, showing some inconsistency in coverage, while Boston ranks inside the top 30 among starting receivers with a 2.27 YPRR. Boston has also been one of Deshaun Watson’s top targets, especially in the red zone, where he has seen at least 1 target in every game. Give me Boston over 36.5 receiving yards, a number he has surpassed in every game this season. I’m also taking a shot on his anytime touchdown, as his big frame makes him an attractive target in the red zone.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson has played surprisingly well through the first 3 games of the season, but Cleveland hasn’t asked him to throw the ball a ton. The Browns rank 26th among all 32 NFL teams in passing attempts, with Watson averaging just 27.5 attempts per game. The Steelers have held 2 of their first 3 opposing quarterbacks to 25 or fewer attempts, with only Joe Burrow surpassing 30 in a game that turned into a shootout. I don’t expect this TNF matchup to turn into a high-scoring affair, and a close game should allow Cleveland to continue leaning on the rushing attack. While Watson has gone over 29 attempts in back-to-back games, he has only reached 30 in each, leaving very little confidence that he will go over that. Give me Watson under 28.5 passing attempts on TNF.

Quinshon Judkins is another tougher play since he’s averaging only 3.0 YPC, but he managed to rush for 70 yards in Week 3. The Steelers’ run defense has shown cracks early in the season, allowing a rusher to surpass 60 yards in every game. That makes Judkins over 55.5 rushing yards an appealing play based on Pittsburgh’s struggles against the run. Judkins is averaging 14 carries per game, so the workload is there; he just needs to take advantage of the matchup. He’s also averaged at least 69 rushing yards per game across 8 career home games. With the spread sitting at only 2.5 points, this projects to remain competitive enough for Cleveland to stick with the running game and give Judkins every opportunity to clear 55.5 yards.

Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings

My Preferred Parlay for This Matchup (+2000)

• Aaron Rodgers — Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
• Jaylen Warren — Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
• Jaylen Warren — Anytime Touchdown
• Roman Wilson  — Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
• Denzel Boston  — Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!