Two of the league’s best pass defenses square off on Monday Night Football in Week 5. Patrick Mahomes can usually get it done against anyone, but Trevor Lawrence has struggled. The Jaguars have gotten by with fumble recoveries and a strong rushing attack. Can they do it again this week or is this a lucky run that will fade away?
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Monday Night Football Preview
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars O/U: 45.5
Travis Etienne & Bhayshul Tuten – RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Many fantasy football Twitter/X users were touting Bhayshul Tuten as the next Bucky Irving. If you’re a believer in talent, that could still come true. Travis Etienne has just been a major thorn in the side of that argument.
Etienne is getting a pretty full workload, averaging 18.75 opportunities (rushes + targets) per game. Tuten averages a measly 6.25. It’s going to be impossible to bench Etienne unless he majorly slows down. He’s 26 and just had his 700th carry last week, so it’s unlikely his workload will catch up to him just yet. The Chiefs have been incredibly soft against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry (5th highest) and ranking 24th in run defense DVOA.
Tuten had two solid weeks, but they were solely because of TDs, where Etienne still dominates the work. Tuten only has 3 red zone rush attempts and 1 red zone target, while Etienne has 10 rushes and 3 targets in the area. Despite a juicy matchup, the Jags would need to be up by a lot for Tuten to get sneaky late-game value. For now, he’s still one of the best handcuffs available, but he doesn’t offer much value while Etienne is there.
Brashard Smith – RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Just a few weeks ago, it seemed like nobody on the Chiefs could compete with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco for even a single touch each week in this backfield. Inefficiency by both has led to trade rumors, but also the emergence of Brashard Smith. After only recording 3 rushes for 15 yards and 2 targets that were never caught, Smith turned it up in Week 4. He ran 4 times and caught 3 of 4 targets for 27 yards. He was not entirely efficient either, but it looks like the team wants to give him a shot.
The 7th round rookie saw a career-high in snaps after playing 26% against Baltimore. Make no mistake, though, Smith did not see an increase in snaps just because the Chiefs were blowing the Ravens out. Smith got two targets on Kansas City’s first drive, when they were down 7-0 in the first quarter. In fact, Smith recorded at least one target or rush in 5 of KC’s 7 drives before the fourth quarter.
Like the Chiefs, the Jaguars are better against the pass than the run, but they’re no easy matchup. It’s unlikely that Smith breaks out in Week 5, but a continued increase in opportunities and snaps would be encouraging for his future value. He’s a solid stash in fantasy football to keep an eye on during Monday Night Football.
Brian Thomas Jr. – WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Every week, it feels like Brian Thomas is finally going to have that big game. BTJ has disappointed in fantasy following an incredible finish to his 2024 rookie year. Thomas has started the season with only 12 receptions for 164 yards and 0 TDs. That’s despite being targeted 32 times, tied for 18th in the league. For reference, that’s around the same number of targets as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Emeka Egbuka.
Will this finally be the week? The targets should still be there, but the Chiefs’ pass defense ranks 8th in DVOA and 6th in EPA. Thomas will play a lot of snaps against CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Watson is allowing a 63.9 passer rating when targeted, and McDuffie an 84.0 passer rating. The duo also ranks top-25 amongst CBs in PFF grade.
There is a lot that Thomas and the Jags’ passing attack needs to fix already, but the tough matchup is the cherry on top. It’s hard to bench him, but you can’t expect much this week. Unless he becomes 2024 Brian Thomas Jr., he’s a floor play in Week 5 just because of his volume.
Brenton Strange – TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City presents a strong defense against tight ends, but they haven’t faced a great one yet. The Chargers and Giants have young guys who don’t produce much, and Dallas Goedert missed the game against the Chiefs. Mark Andrews ended up having a solid outing, at least by his season’s standards, with 7 receptions for 30 yards. That’s not to say that this is an easy matchup, as KC ranks 3rd in lowest DVOA allowed to TEs.
Strange may be the only reliable pass-catcher in Jacksonville. Brian Thomas Jr has been dropping balls, making mental mistakes, and just not having a great time with Trevor Lawrence. Travis Hunter has not been elite on this side of the ball just yet, and Parker Washington doesn’t seem to have a defined role each week.
The Chiefs are excellent against the pass, and the Jaguars may try to win with the run game. That may not be possible all game against a good offense, so throwing a fair bit is inevitable. With blitzes likely to be dialed up and WRs failing to get open, Strange may be the guy they lean on once again.
In PPR, Strange is a mid to high-end TE2, but he hasn’t scored a TD yet. Oddly enough, he hasn’t even seen a red zone target. The Jaguars are content with running the ball in that area, which hurts his upside, especially in a matchup that favors running. Expect reliable results again, but nothing incredible.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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