It’s major time! 156 of the world’s best golfers are arriving in Louisville, Kentucky for the second major of the season. There will be no shortage of talent at Valhalla Golf Club, with everyone who’s anyone teeing it up for The PGA Championship. Thanks to Scottie Scheffler’s hiatus awaiting his firstborn, we have a 3-headed monster ready to attack Valhalla. Both Scottie and Rory McIlroy come into Louisville with back-to-back victories, and defending champion Brooks Koepka reigned victorious in his lasting outing in Singapore.
As always with majors, at least for the past few years, the big story will be PGA vs LIV. After a fantastic showing in 2023, LIV left much to be desired at The Masters. Other than Bryson DeChambeau’s hot start, LIV did not show up to compete. To be fair, no one was going to give Scottie Scheffler a scare after a few rounds. I expect a better turnout from LIV this time around. Brooks has won 3 of the last 6 PGA Championships, Mito Pereira would’ve won in 2022 had it not been for a disaster on 18, and Phil Mickelson shocked everyone in 2021. All in all, LIV is poised to have some contenders come Sunday.
The Course: Valhalla Golf Club
Valhalla is an absolutely stunning golf course. The fact I live 10 minutes away from it may create a slight bias, but nonetheless, you’ll see a breathtaking, major-worthy course this week. The course stretches over 7,600 yards, making it the longest par 71 course these golfers will see in 2024. Playing here in May compared to the historically August date will make distance slightly less important, with more expected rollout for drivers. However, distance will still be a huge benefit. It is equally important to stay out of the very long rough Valhalla has grown out.
There will be a few target holes that golfers will need to stockpile birdies to compensate for the longer, more demanding holes. Most of the longer hitters will reach greenside on all three par 5s and could have a chance of driving it within 50 yards on 2 of the par 4s. Other than this handful of holes, golfers will be battling to save par. Fairway bunkers meticulously placed by Jack Nicklaus will be a huge factor. Long approaches will create a lot of difficult up-and-downs around the greens. Once on the greens, putting will be a challenge as well, as expected with any major tournament. With all of this in mind, I have a few golfers I suggest taking a deeper dive into. Let’s take a look!
Best Bets: PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler (+400)
I absolutely hate it, I really do. Trust me when I say I don’t want to do this, but I am sick and tired of betting on guys just for them to finish second to the next Tiger Woods. I don’t know if I’ve ever bet on someone to win a golf tournament at odds as low as 4-1, but if I’m being honest, I think it’s actually a quality price for what you are getting with Scottie Scheffler.
We don’t have to lay out how good Scottie is, but I will. He’s won 4 of his last 5 events, just missing out on a perfect 5 for 5 by 1 stroke in Houston. Grouped in those wins are The Masters, The Players, and 2 Signature Events in The Arnold Palmer Invitational and The RBC Heritage. He has quite literally played in the 4 toughest fields of the past 2 months and won them all. You all know how elite he has been in every facet of the game other than putting, and now he’s gained strokes on the greens in 5 straight events. This should absolutely scare every competitor he faces.
On top of his once-in-a-generation talent, his wife Meredith gave birth to his firstborn this past weekend. That’s just what Scottie needed…the famous baby bump to add even more good vibes and motivation. At +400, there’s not much room for error, and it feels disgusting hitting that button. But when someone like Scottie Scheffler comes around, at some point you just close your eyes and trust the best golfer in the world. And that’s what we’re doing here!
Alex Noren (+10000, Top 10 +750)
If you’re going to be betting on Scheffler at +400, you need to back it up with a few longer shots. I would love to be betting in a W/O Scheffler pool on odds worse by only a few points, but at the time of writing, DraftKings does not have that available.
Alex Noren is a great buy-low candidate. He has made 16 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour, including 4 finishes inside the Top 10 in that span. Noren has quietly become one of the most consistent ball-strikers on Tour, having gained strokes Off the Tee, Approaching the Green, and Around the Green in 6 straight events. His putter has been solid as well, having gained strokes in 7 of his last 9 events. To put all that simply, Alex Noren has been incredibly hot in every facet of the game, and it should continue in Louisville this week.
It takes a special breed of golfer to contend and win a major. At 41 years old, Alex Noren does not have many more realistic opportunities in his future. Given his fantastic form and overall skill, I wouldn’t be shocked if his first win on the PGA Tour came here at the PGA Championship. Given Scottie Scheffler is competing, however, I think you can feel very confident in the value of a Top 10 bet at +750.
Sebastian Soderberg (+35000, Top 10 +2200)
Who? This is most likely the first time hearing of Sebastian Soderberg for most of you, but I’m here to tell you he’s got a shot, albeit a very long shot, at winning at Valhalla.
Soderberg is currently ranked 4th on the DP World Tour, meaning if the summer goes smoothly, he’ll be playing on the PGA Tour should he choose to. He comes into Louisville having some of the best form in the field, arguably only being beaten out by Scheffler and McIlroy. Soderberg’s has 3 consecutive Top 3 finishes, and has not missed a cut since last July. His approach play has been at a career-high in 2024 and seems to only be improving.
Similar to Noren, Soderberg’s chances of truly winning this thing is slim to none. However, with the way he’s been playing over the past month, I really do think he’ll have a chance to contend. At 350-1, Soderberg will be the longest odds I’ve bet this year. It’s only worth a small wager, given his chances and the large payout regardless of the ante. If you’re looking for a long shot Top 10 pick, Sebastian Soderberg is perfect. The three consecutive podium finishes make the 22-1 price seem like a miscalculation by the books. Get it while you can!