The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

PGA Fantasy Season Outlook for Fall Series Winners

While many popular season-long fantasy golf leagues run from January-September (Tournament of Champions to TOUR Championship), the Fall Series on the PGA Tour is an important part of the rest of the regular season to some year-long leagues that include these nine tournaments. This October-December swing is crucial in setting up momentum and feel for how these players could perform in the FedEx Cup race.

Not to mention the fact that these nine tournaments can maybe be a false sense of hope in “hyping” up fantasy assets. This swing is not an exact comparison to preseason performances in one of the four major sports, but it should be realized that big-time PGA guns won’t play in all of these events.

With that being said, the next nine golfers listed were the winners in the Fall Series, and their outlooks for the rest of the season will be outlined.

The main goal of this piece is to provide information on players you wouldn’t see in a top-25 fantasy golfers post.

*The team that won the QBE Shootout is not included.
*Keep in mind when looking at Fall Series stats that there was no cut for the Hero World Challenge or FedEx Cup points awarded.

Safeway Open – October 5th-8th
Winner: Brendan Steele

Current OWGR: 45th Fantasy Ranking: 41st
Fall Series Stats: 2 of 2 Cuts Made, one top-10, 69.358 scoring average, 6th in earnings.
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Through 2019-20

A winner just four times since 2010, Steele made 20 of 25 cuts last season with a win, four top-10s, a scoring average of 70.54, and ranked 30th on the money list. His major championship play is also something to note, as he’s made just six cuts in 13 major appearances.

Overall, Steele has been very solid on TOUR, and he has been a consistent top-60 player since 2013. If you’re in a league that just counts earnings, it should be noted that Steele has yet to top $3 million in his career. In the last three seasons he’s posted:

2017: $2,907,095 (30th)
2016: $1,589,266 (67th)
2015: $1,759,484 (54th)

After Steele’s 2016 Safeway Open win, he fell off the map with just three more top-10s and his FedEx ranking mostly falling for most of the year. Steele’s production may be good enough to dabble into a bit this season. You can do far better … and also far worse.

CIMB Classic – October 12th-15th
Winner: Pat Perez

Current OWGR: 19th
PGA Fantasy Ranking: 54th
Fall Series Stats: 4 of 4 cuts made, two top-10s, 69.578 scoring average, 2nd in earnings.
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Through 2018-19

The 41-year-old Pat Perez is one of those feel-good stories. Prior to the 2016-17 season, he had just one win on TOUR over 13 years. A major medical extension was given to him to earn $670,050, and Perez easily passed that mark. He went from being off of everyone’s fantasy radars to being a top-20 asset in leagues last season with 22 of 26 cuts made and six top-10s. He also registered a win and finished 11th on the money list.

Perez posted a career-high three top-3s, matched his six top-10s, and set a new high with 14 top-25s. A large regression could be coming for Perez. With 15 seasons on TOUR and just one win, he can’t be trusted every week in fantasy leagues.

The CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges – October 19th-22nd
Winner: Justin Thomas

Current OWGR: 3rd Fantasy Ranking: 2nd
Fall Series Stats: 2 of 2 cuts made, one top-10, 69.571 scoring average, 1st in earnings.
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Through 2021-22

To see the fantasy outlook for 2017’s most outstanding golfer, see last week’s post on the top 25 fantasy players for the upcoming season.

Sanderson Farms Championship – October 26th-29th
Winner: Ryan Armour

Current OWGR: 181st Fantasy Ranking: 203rd
Fall Series Stats: 4 of 5 cuts made, one top-10, 69.840 scoring average, 14th in earnings.
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Ranked 11th on 2017 Tour priority list

Another 41-year-old earned his first PGA victory this fall. Since his debut in 2007, Armour played in just 83 PGA events and is not a real threat in season-long leagues. If he can improve his putting and catch some fire at some point, then he can be worth a flyer on a certain week. It’s definitely tough to trust a player who just scrapes by into TOUR status.

Armour has had some very good play on the TOUR that got him onto the PGA TOUR, but he had just one top-10 finish last season on 11 of 20 cuts as a TOUR member. In 2007, he actually earned $862,979 with his three top-10s, but the $877,498 he’s already earned this year from his Sanderson Farms win won’t be improved upon significantly.

World Golf Championship – HSBC Champions – October 26th-29th
Winner: Justin Rose

Current OWGR: 6th Fantasy Ranking: 11th
Fall Series Stats: 1 of 1 cuts made, one top-10, 68.208 scoring average, 4th in earnings
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Through 2019-20

A great end to the 2017 season for the Englishman Justin Rose has him as a top-15 option for the 2018 fantasy season. His season outlook is included here.

Shriners Hospitals For Children Open – November 2nd-5th
Winner: Patrick Cantlay

Current OWGR: 42nd Fantasy Ranking: 27th
Fall Series Stats: 2 of 2 cuts made, one top-10, 69.494 scoring average, 5th in earnings
PGA Tour Exempt Status: His 29th finish in FedEx Cup points in 2017 keeps him on TOUR

Cantlay is a very difficult golfer to rank for 2018; he seems to qualify for majors with ease, but he played only 13 events last year. A limited number of events or not, Cantlay is still a definite top-30 fantasy golfer for 2018 with this win already, not to mention the fact that he made it all the way to the TOUR championship at last year’s end. He was 29th in FedEx Cup points.

A model of consistency, Cantlay made 13 of 13 cuts in 2017 with four top-10s. He posted a scoring average of 70.00 on the nose and was 49th in earnings. Being that high in earnings with the limited number of events proves how valuable Cantlay is. Still just 25 years old, if he can eclipse even 18 events, we could be seeing an easy top-20 in earnings.

OHL Classic at Mayakoba – November 9th-12th
Winner: Patton Kizzire

Current OWGR: 123th Fantasy Ranking: 114th
Fall Series Stats: 4 of 5 cuts made, three top-10s, 69.340 scoring average, 3rd in earnings
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Through 2019-20

An inconsistent 2017 was what Patton Kizzire showed us. He made just 14 cuts out of 28 events played, but in those 14 cuts, he posted a runner-up finish at the Safeway Open for a total of three top-10s and five top-25s.

In his rookie season in 2016, however, Kizzire made 20 of 27 cuts, with five top-10s. He actually finished 28 spots better on the money list in 2016 than he did in 2017.

Coming into 2017, Kizzire looked legit, but he failed to live up to those expectations. He could be somewhat of a steal in salary-cap formats, but he doesn’t really warrant a pick before the 9th round of draft leagues. Some good news is that he may not have that tough of a time improving on 14 out of 28 cuts.

RSM Classic – November 16th-19th
Winner: Austin Cook

Current OWGR: 146th Fantasy Ranking: 119th
Fall Series Stats: 4 of 4 cuts made, one top-10, 69.475 scoring average, 7th in earnings
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Through 2019-20

The rookie and TOUR #11 ranked golfer has now newly qualified for the Masters, the PGA Championship, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, and THE PLAYERS Championship.

The 26-year-old came onto the scene in 2015 where he made 6 of 7 cuts with two top-10s, but since then, excluding 2018, he’s played in just two events, missing the cut in both. He wasn’t able to earn his TOUR status since until he finished 15th in earnings on the TOUR in 2017.

Nothing much in Cook’s four events in 2018 speaks to how he may perform this season in terms of stats. He’s 1st in Scrambling: From The Fringe, 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 2nd in putting from 6 feet. He fired the 2nd lowest round so far this season of 62 and is 16th in scoring average.

Cook is going to be a bargain for sure at times in salary leagues this year. This could finally be the year that he posts respectable numbers on TOUR, as we are going to see him in more events this season.

Hero World Challenge – November 30th-December 3rd
Winner: Rickie Fowler

Current OWGR: 7th Fantasy Ranking: 5th
Fall Series Stats: 1 of 1 cuts made, two top-10s, 67.211 scoring average, 17th in earnings
PGA Tour Exempt Status: Through 2019-20

With an absolutely jaw-dropping performance at the Hero World Challenge, Fowler set a course record 61 in the Bahamas to kick off December. Not to mention his 2nd place finish at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba a month ago. See his 2018 fantasy outlook here.

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.