Finding the Best Fantasy Homes for the Top FA Shortstops

The 2022 offseason was always known to be abundant with shortstops. Analysts and GMs have been talking about this offseason for years. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien have already signed their free agent deals; both with Texas. Javier Baez signed with Detroit. The two biggest names on the market are now Carlos Correa and Trevor Story. Although sometimes overanalyzed, where these two players sign will have an impact on their fantasy value. Seager signing in Texas caused some analysts to move him down their rankings. For this article, I am going to take a look at which teams still need a shortstop and what the best possible landing spot is for each of these remaining players for their fantasy value.

MLB Teams Still in Need of a Shortstop

For the purpose of this article, I am focusing on teams that have a realistic chance to sign one of these players. The Orioles could obviously use a star caliber SS, but the odds of them actually signing one at this point are slim to none. The table below shows the list of teams I think could be competing for Correa and Story and who their Opening Day SS would be at this point:

The first name on the list might not make a whole lot of sense. The shoulder injury Tatis suffered last season is still concerning and has the chance to linger. The Padres could look to shift him to the OF or focus on him being the DH to reduce the chance of injury. The Padres also are looking to compete and after missing out on Max Scherzer at the deadline we know that they are not afraid to make a splash.

The Phillies have the reigning National League MVP and Cy Young runner-up yet cannot seem to get over the hump. The performance of Didi Gregorius last season could force them to spend more money on a SS. The offense needs help and either one of these players would be an upgrade.

Despite Jerry Dipoto coming out and saying that Crawford will be the Mariners’ everyday SS in 2022, there is still belief that the team is targeting one of the big free agent shortstops on the market. Crawford is fine defensively, but the Mariners took a huge step forward last season. The team is looking to end the longest playoff drought in MLB and upgrading to one of these free agents could put them over the hump. Plus, Crawford could play 3B if the Mariners are insistent on letting him play every day.

The Yankees have one of the best teams in baseball on paper. However, that has not led to a World Series since 2010. The city of New York has used up all of its patience with this team. They want a championship, and they want it now. Signing Correa or Story would be a step in the right direction.

The Astros are the incumbent for Correa. There is no doubt Houston has championship aspirations for 2022. The last we heard, Correa and the Astros were nowhere close to agreeing to a deal. I think it is likely that they let Peña take over, but resigning Correa or signing Story would be a huge plus for the team.

The Angels seem to be the team nobody is talking about when it comes to these two. Early in the offseason the Angels focused on pitching. They could focus on their lineup next. They have a glaring hole at SS with Tyler Wade penciled in as the everyday starter. Inserting Correa or Story into a lineup that already has Trout, Ohtani, Walsh, and Rendon would the icing on the cake for them.

Field Dimensions

Each potential landing spot comes with different home field dimensions. The dimensions for each of the teams previously listed are shown in the table below. Picking the Yankees for both of these players would be easy. With a lethal lineup and the short porch in right field, there is a lot to like about playing in New York. For one, I am going to pick a different team for each player. Secondly, I am going to try to dig a little bit deeper than just blindly picking the Yankees. Most of these teams provide excellent opportunity for both players to be excellent fantasy shortstops. I am going to analyze and explain why I believe there is a specific team to bring out the best in each of these shortstops.

Carlos Correa – Shortstop

Throughout his career, Correa has been comfortable in Houston and on the road. In Minute Maid he has hit .277 with 64 home runs compared to .276 with 69 home runs on the road. Houston has a lot of benefits for Correa. Houston has an excellent lineup to surround Correa with other stars like Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker. He is put in a position to succeed in both runs and RBI categories. There are still questions over whether he can be the main star in a lineup.

Although Correa returning to Houston would be a shock to the real world, fantasy managers would welcome a reunion. I believe there is one lineup that would be an even better fit for the free-agent shortstop. I know that I said I would not just pick the Yankees for everybody, but the fit for Correa in New York would be a match made in fantasy heaven. Correa would get to stay in a lineup surrounded by stars. Batting with hitters like Judge, Gallo, and Stanton would instantly put him in a position to score runs at a high rate. There would be no worries about him needing to shoulder an offense with the other pieces around him.

In addition to this, although Correa is right-handed, the short porch is designed perfectly for his profile. During 2021, Correa hit over 30% of his home runs the opposite way. These home runs averaged over 366 feet in the air. The wall down the right field line in Yankee Stadium is only 314 feet. Not just for 2021, but throughout his career, Correa has hit 26% of his home runs the opposite way. According to Fangraphs Park Factors, Yankee Stadium ranks 13^th in base hits and 8^th in home runs for right-handed hitters. Of the teams previously listed only the Phillies rank higher in home runs. The Phillies do not have nearly as good of a lineup as the Yankees. Being in the Yankees lineup maximizes Correa’s run, RBI, and homerun potential.

You might be wondering if I said I was not just going to automatically pick the Yankees for either of these players; why did I pick them for Correa over Story? The answer boils down to their tendencies to hit opposite field home runs. Neither hitter is an extreme pull hitter. When comparing opposite-field home runs, they account for 16% of Story’s home runs compared to the 26% for Correa. The following statistics show no significant difference between Correa and Story for opposite field.

The table makes it appear that they both hit basically the same number of fly balls the opposite way at similar average exit velocities. The spray chart below provided by Fangraphs shows where the biggest difference lies. Although they are technically still opposite field, Story tends to hit the ball more toward right-center. This tends to be the deepest part of most parks. Correa hits the ball down the line much more which leads to more opposite-field home runs. Yankee Stadium is deep in the gaps which is why it would be a much better fit for Correa.

Trevor Story- Shortstop

Story has been a much different hitter in Colorado compared to on the road. The “Coors Effect” people talk about seems to be true for him. He has hit .303 with 95 home runs at home while hitting .241 with 63 homers on the road. That does not mean Story is going to see his fantasy value disappear away from Colorado, it just makes where he signs all the more important. We already crossed New York off of the list after hypothetically sending Correa there giving them their shortstop. I am going to make the case as to why the Los Angeles Angels are the best landing spot for Story’s fantasy value.

First off, stolen bases are a key part of Story’s game. Picking a team that will encourage him to run is extremely important. Of the teams listed in the beginning of this article, the Angels ranked second behind San Diego in stolen bases for 2021. The team is willing to let their players run which is big for Story’s fantasy value. Story would also be hitting in a lineup with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani two of the best hitters in baseball. This an instant upgrade over his teammates in Colorado and great for his run and RBI potential.

As I mentioned before, Story saw a drastic decrease in his numbers away from Coors Field. Although the ball does travel farther in Coors a common misconception is that it dramatically increases HR ability. While it does help, Coors Field only ranked 9^th in terms of ESPN Park Factors for homers. The biggest benefit is actually in batting average. It is important that Story signs somewhere that is not only good for his power but also helps him manage to keep a solid batting average. According to ESPN, Angels Stadium ranks the highest of our teams in consideration for batting average.

Although not commonly known for being a great home run park, it ranked 6^th in baseball last year according to park factors. Of the dimensions listed before, Angels Stadium is the farthest of all down both lines. Pull power is not an issue for Story. His average pull distance on a HR after adjusting for the Coors Factor was over 403 feet. We already discussed how Story does not hit many balls down the opposite field line. This removes any concerns over the distance in Angels Stadium down the lines. The gaps in Angels Stadium are not that different from any other stadium. In left-center field, it is about league average, and it is actually one of the shorter distances in right-center. This plays perfectly for Story’s profile. The right-center field wall is actually shallower and lower in Angels Stadium than at Coors Field.

Story has elite power, great speed, and an ability to bat for a solid average. Getting him into the right ballpark is key to maximizing his fantasy production. The Angels would be a great fit for Story to get a lot of RBIs, runs, and stolen bases. Story would also be a big upgrade at shortstop over Tyler Wade. Although some of the walls are fairly deep, Story has elite power to overcome this. His home runs are often moonshots and so it is more about finding a park with the right dimensions for his other categories. Story’s fantasy value would be maximized if he chooses to call Angels Stadium home.