A common strategy used by fantasy basketball managers is to try to identify NBA players who will outperform their baseline expectations by looking at players who are playing for a new contract – the so-called contract year phenomenon. It even has a very incomplete Wikipedia page.
The actual statistical evidence for the theory is spotty. There may be an uptick in effort-based numbers (steals, blocks) but a decline in field goal percentage. Further, not all players seem to be impacted the same – the ones barely hanging onto an NBA spot are already playing their hardest just to keep up, and the elite players will get their max contracts no matter what, and therefore aren’t impacted by a contract year in the same way. So the sweet spot for the contract year phenomenon may just be sub-All-Stars and players thought to be average. Which ones specifically? Scroll below to find out.
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Top 10 Contract-Year Players for 2025-26 Fantasy Basketball
Trae Young (PG) – Atlanta Hawks
Am I already walking back the claim that this doesn’t apply to star players? Maybe. But for an All-Star, Trae Young has a pretty poor reputation for some reason. Young is currently eligible for a $200+ million extension, which the Hawks reportedly aren’t offering as of right now. The play for Young here is to prove himself worthy of a massive contract. In fact, making all-NBA would add more than $100 million to his maximum extension.
Norman Powell (SG, SF) – Miami Heat
Norman Powell will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2025-26 season. At 33 years old, he will be looking for his last big NBA payday. He is coming off a career year in 24-25, averaging almost 22 points per game. If he can keep it up, Powell will be a nice sleeper candidate in fantasy. Seemingly, he should play a decently large part in the Heat offence.
Kristaps Porzingis (C) – Atlanta Hawks
Sure, Porzingis was an All-Star too. But that was way back in 2017-18. Interestingly, his per-game stats have barely changed from then. In fact, I challenge anyone to find a more consistent player (when playing). But not playing much is the problem. For his career, Porzingis averages 55 games per season. He signed his current contract coming off a 65-game season in Washington. Perhaps that should be the benchmark.
Austin Reaves (PG, SG, SF) – Los Angeles Lakers
Not an All-Star. Not Yet. Reaves has a player option after this season, and he will definitely look to get paid either by the Lakers or anyone else. And all this is coming at a very opportune time for Reaves as he’s clearly passing LeBron as the second-best player on the Lakers. It’s very clear.
Dyson Daniels (SG, SF) – Atlanta Hawks
Daniels will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season. Currently, he is a limited fantasy player contributing only steals. But he is contributing them at a higher rate than anyone since the 80s. There are optimistic rumblings about his playmaking, but realistically, he is a defense-only fantasy player.
Jaden Ivey (SG) – Detroit Pistons
Ivey missed most of 24-25 after breaking a bone in his leg. He is an excellent scorer and will be playing for his first big NBA contract.
Coby White (PG, SG) – Chicago Bulls
White is locked in as the starting shooting guard for this very, very poor Bulls team. In fact, the team is so poor, it’s unclear that anyone other than White can score the ball. Whether the Bulls see White as a part of their long-term plans is another question, but someone will.
Anfernee Simons (PG, SG) – Boston Celtics
Simons finds himself in trade rumours right after arriving in Boston in the Jrue Holiday trade. And he still may be traded before the season starts. Or not. In any case, it doesn’t seem like there is much loyalty on either side, as Simons will be looking for his stats and the team will be looking to offload him.
Deandre Ayton (C) – Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton will have a player option after this year. Surely, surely, this Lakers stint will be a chance for a career resurgence?
Cam Thomas (SG, SF) – Brooklyn Nets
Sure, Cam Thomas is an injury-prone ball-hog, according to some guy on Reddit. But he is also in a contract year on a team going nowhere fast.
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