Another MLB trade deadline has come and gone and it sure was an exciting one, especially if you’re a Padres fan. San Diego dominated most of the rumors and winded up making several deals over the last few days, beefing up their bullpen, lineup, and nabbing a frontline starter to add to a rotation that already included Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet. But San Diego was far from the only team making waves yesterday and this recent flurry of deals has caused many player’s fantasy values to shift, either positively or negatively, while opening up some opportunities for prospects to step up as well.
Today, I’m going to discuss all the fantasy-relevant deals from this year’s trade deadline and try to make sense of all the changing fantasy values across baseball. For prospects, I’ll only be discussing the pones with immediate redraft value. All other notable prospects traded will be included in my weekly prospect report that will be out tomorrow.
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MLB Trade Deadline Fantasy Baseball Fallout
San Diego Padres Acquire: Mike Clevinger (RHP), Greg Allen (OF), PTBNL
Cleveland Indians Acquire: Josh Naylor (OF), Cal Quantrill (RHP), Austin Hedges (C), Gabriel Arias (SS), Owen Miller (SS), Joey Cantillo (LHP)
Winner(s): Mike Clevinger, Josh Naylor, Zach Plesac
Loser(s): None
This was the big one for 2020 trade deadline deals. After countless rumors, the Padres finally acquired Mike Clevinger for the massive haul you see above. For Clevinger, this is a slight boost for his value, especially if you play in a league that uses wins as a category. The Padres lead the Majors in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and runs per game while ranking 2nd in home runs. A much better offense gives Clevinger a better chance to accumulate wins over the next month. Not to mention a more pitcher-friendly home ballpark in San Diego.
Now, for the rest of the deal, there’s some immediate fantasy appeal to be had. Outside of Franmil Reyes, the Indians have been trying to patch together a starting outfield this season so there’s a good chance they give Josh Naylor a chance to stick as a starter ROS. While he’s yet to find his footing at the Major League level, Naylor slashed .288/.351/.439 in the minors and has the raw power to hit around 25 home runs over a full season. He makes for an interesting addition in 15+ team leagues for the stretch run.
While he doesn’t have redraft value, I’m intrigued by Quantrill getting into this Cleveland organization that has a stellar track record developing pitching. Maybe they can turn Quantrill, whom I considered a #5 starter type in San Diego, into more of an SP 3/4 longterm.
And for those wondering, I don’t think this has a major impact on the ETA of MacKenzie Gore. Garrett Richards has been struggling of late and I’m still expecting Gore to debut at some point in September for the stretch run. The Padres are in full win-now mode so it would shock me if they didn’t call up Gore to help with their postseason push.
As an added bonus, Zach Plesac finally rejoins the rotation after putting himself in the dog house for breaking team rules regarding COVID-19. There “was no spot for him” as recently as a week ago, but with Clevinger gone, Cleveland can’t use that line anymore. Plesac will take the hill today and needs to be rostered ROS for how he looked prior to his “time off”. If you held onto Plesac through all this, congratulations.
Seattle Mariners Acquire: Taylor Trammell, Ty France, Luis Torrens, Andrés Muñoz
San Diego Padres Acquire: Austin Nola, Dan Altavilla, Austin Adams
For redraft leagues, there’s not a ton of fantasy relevance here. One of the pleasant surprises of the 2020 season, Austin Nola now will likely be in a timeshare with Jason Castro moving forward. I’d still hold onto him for a few days to see how this shakes out and if San Diego gives him time at other positions too. I mean, there’s probably no one better on your waiver wire for catchers right now, so it can’t hurt to hold and see how Nola’s playing time situation shakes out. My guess is that he still plays enough to remain fantasy relevant. You’re not going to find a catcher slashing .306/.373/.531 with some pop sitting on our waiver wire right now.
The rest of this deal only has dynasty implications. I’ll hit on Trammell in my prospect report tomorrow, but Ty France and Andrés Munoz are noteworthy here. After a rather quiet first three minor league seasons, France broke out over last two years posting a .267/.355/.464 slash with 22 homers in 2018 and following that up with a ridiculous .399/.477/.770 slash and 27 home runs in 76 games last season. Yes, it was in the PCL, but France has shown that there’s a solid hit tool here with the pop to hit 20-plus homers over a full season. Will he ever get that chance? We;ll see, but he has a better chance to do so in Seattle than he did in San Diego. He’d be a player I’d look to acquire in deeper dynasty leagues right now.
As for Muñoz, he was one of the first players I included in my “Nasty Nine” article that discussed nine potential elite relievers in the making. We’ll have to wait until sometime in 2021 to see Muñoz back on the mound in game action following Tommy John surgery this spring, but the longterm upside is still appealing thanks to his blazing upper-90’s fastball and sharp mid-80’s slider. I never like to pay big for closers in dynasty, so grabbing a player like Muñoz for cheap right now fits my MO to a tee.
Toronto Blue Jays Acquire Robbie Ray (LHP) from Arizona Diamondbacks for Travis Bergen (LHP)
Winner (s): Nobody
Loser(s): Robbie Ray
If you were still holding on to Robbie Ray for some reason in a redraft league, now is your time to cut ties. There isn’t a major difference in the quality of opponents he’ll face, but he’ll be pitching in much more hitter-friendly ballparks the rest of the season, including his home park in Buffalo. For a pitcher allowing 2.6 HR/9 and 9.0 BB/9 so far this season, that’s not a recipe for success.
Ray has no idea where the strike zone is right now and his fastball is getting obliterated to the tune of a .453 xwOBA and .614 xSLG. When a pitch you throw 48% of the time has those metrics, good luck trying to succeed at the Major League level. At this point, Ray’s strikeout value doesn’t even come close to outweighing the damage he does to your team’s ratios. As for his vacated rotation spot, that will likely be filled by a spot starter until the newly-acquired Caleb Smith returns from the COVID IL.
Ross Stripling (RHP) to Toronto Blue Jays for PTBNL
Winner(s): Tony Gonsolin
Loser(s): Potentially Ross Stripling or Robbie Ray
This trade has minimal fantasy implications for Ross Stripling but is a boon to Tony Gonsolin’s value ROS. In the last notable trade deadline deal, Los Angeles dealt Stripling to Toronto for a PTBNL, which opens up a full-time rotation spot for Gonsolin. In four starts this season, Gonsolin has allowed just one earned run over 17.2 innings with a 0.79 WHIP and 17/5 K/BB ratio. Even before this trade, I was advocating for people to add him in fantasy leagues and now Gonsolin should be rostered nearly universally with a rotation spot seemingly locked up moving forward. Who doesn’t want a potential top-50 fantasy SP for the final month of the fantasy season?
The impact for Stripling and Ray is going to come down to how the Toronto rotation shakes out moving forward. With these acquisitions plus the recent;y acquired Taijuan Walker, the Blue Jays now have six starters vying for five rotation spots. There’s a good chance either Stripling or Ray moves to the pen which would kill any shred of fantasy value they have. It’s probably best to cut ties with each if you’re currently rostering them.
Colorado Rockies Acquire Kevin Pillar & Cash from Boston Red Sox for INTL Slot Money & A PTBNL
Winner(s): Absolutely Nobody. Okay, maybe Jarren Duran
Loser(s): Garrett Hampson, Sam Hilliard, my mental well-being.
SERIOUSLY? This is a joke, right? The Rockies just acquired another veteran to cut into the playing time of Sam Hilliard and Garrett Hampson. This is unbelievable. As I mentioned during my Twitter rants, I’m baffled by how the Rockies run their team. Signing players like Kevin Pillar are what you do when your prospects aren’t ready and you need a stopgap. Colorado has now acquired three players over the last several months instead of giving everyday playing time to the aforementioned trio of prospects. For fantasy purposes, Hilliard is droppable now in redraft leagues and Hampson likely is as well. You got to figure Pillar plays in a platoon at the very least which leaves no everyday spot open for either Hampson or Hilliard.
However, I’m still standing pat on my Hampson and Hilliard claims longterm. I’ve seen both live and firmly believe they’re Major League starters and potential top-100 fantasy hitters. I’m sure you can probably get each for a discount right now in your dynasty leagues. If that’s the case, I’d try and do so.
On Boston’s side of things, they now have an open outfield spot to fill. That spot went to Jose Peraza last night, but I highly doubt that’s going to last the rest of the season. In deeper leagues, Jarren Duran is a good speculative add for his speed upside alone. He’s also been impressing at the alternate site and possesses average to above-average contact skills.
San Diego Padres Acquire: Mitch Moreland
Boston Red Sox Acquire: Hudson Potts & Jeisson Rosario
Winner(s): Bobby Dalbec
Loser(s): None
On the day before the trade deadline, the Boston Red Sox dealt fan and organization favorite, Mitch Moreland to the San Diego Padres for prospects Hudson Potts and Jeisson Rosario, both of which I’ll discuss in my prospects report tomorrow. As for Moreland, he was really heating up over the last few weeks, pushing his season slash line to a robust .328/.430/.746 with eight home runs in just 22 games. While he’s not likely to hit .328 the rest of the way, Moreland’s power production right now is no fluke as he’s 80th percentile or better in exit velocity, hard-hit %, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel%. In fact, Moreland ranks 2nd behind Corey Seager in barrels per PA and 2nd behind Miguel Sano in barrels per BBE. Moreland is scalding the ball right now and needs to be rostered until he cools off.
With Moreland no longer in Boston, the Red Sox called up Bobby Dalbec and have started him in both games, once at first base and once at DH with Michael Chavis getting the start at first last night. Power is Dalbec’s calling card and he wasted no time showing it off at Fenway with a home run in his 2nd at-bat. Granted, it was an odd home run that no one could see that curved around Pesky’s Pole in right field.
But still, Dalbec is a 30-plus homer bat in the making that should hit tanks off or over the Green Monster on a regular basis. His below-average contact skills and swing and miss tendencies will limit the AVG a bit, but Dalbec walked 11.7% of the time in the minors so his OBP should remain solid, even if he’s only hitting around .250 or so. He’s worth a look in deeper redraft leagues.
Jose Martinez to CHC got PTNBL (2)
It seems that the fantasy community as a whole has really begun fading Jose Martinez hard this season. The now 31-year-old Martinez showcased his offensive abilities in St. Louis, posting a .309/.379/.518 slash in 2017 and .305/.364/.457 in 2018, but has only reached 400 plate appearances once in his career back in 2018. It’s hard to get in the lineup every day when you’re a well below-average fielder playing in the National League without the luxury of the DH. When he was traded to Tampa Bay this offseason, the Martinez supporters were overwhelmed with excitement. Yes! Martinez can finally DH regularly in Tampa Bay! Remember, this deal went down before the universal DH was implemented.
But not so fast, Martinez only played in a semi-regular role in Tampa Bay, as is the case with half of their lineup, accumulating only 76 plate appearances thus far. It’s not like he was hitting well either, slashing .239/.329/.388 with highly underwhelming statcast data. His playing time situation in Chicago isn’t likely to be much better either as Martinez will probably be in a DH timeshare at best with Victor Caratini while filling in sparingly at first base or corner outfield. If you want to add him in deeper leagues to see if he winds up with regular at-bats with the Cubbies, fine. But I’m not even considering Martinez until you get up to 20 team leagues right now.
Other Trade Deadline Deals
Trevor Rosenthal to SD for Edward Olivares & PTBNL (2): In a massive overhaul of their bullpen, San Diego acquired several relievers at this year’s trade deadline which began with their acquisition of Trevor Rosenthal from Kansas City. Rosenthal was enjoying a resurgence this season with a 3.07 ERA, 14.1 K/9, and seven saves for Kansas City before the trade. He’s one of three players listed with CL next to their name on Roster Resource’s Padres depth chart along with Emilio Pagan and Drew Pomeranz, but I believe Rosenthal’s experience should give him the most save opportunities of that trio. He’s still worth holding onto in 12-team mixed leagues and both Pagan and Pomeranz are viable options in 15+ team leagues for their ratios, strikeouts, and potential for a save opp here and there down the stretch.
Mike Minor to OAK for PTBNL (2): This is a fairly lateral move in my eyes for Minor’s lackluster fantasy value. The veteran left-hander has struggled this season to the tune of a 5.60 ERA in seven starts and isn’t a lock to remain in Oakland’s rotation down the stretch as they now have him and Chris Bassitt vying for that 5th rotation spot.
Archie Bradley to CIN for Josh VanMeter & Stuart Fairchild: If I could play music here, I’d chose Another One Bites The Dust by Queen. Why? Because another closer’s value bit the dust here with Archie Bradley going from Arizona to Cincinnati. Bradley was in the midst of another Bradley-esque season with an ERA hovering around four and more than a strikeout per inning, but will likely only serve as Raisel Iglesias’ setup man in Cincinnati. As for Bradley’s vacated closer spot in Arizona, there’s no clear cut beneficiary there, but Kevin Ginkel would be my speculative add in deeper redraft leagues.
Mychal Givens to COL for Terrin Vavra & Tyler Nevin: Givens wasn’t getting saves in Baltimore and that’s not going to change in Colorado. He can be ignored in mixed leagues. I’ll discuss both of these prospects in my prospect report tomorrow.
Brian Goodwin to CIN for Packy Naughton & PTBNL: This has nothing to do with the players involved and everything to do with the potential opportunity opened in Los Angeles. Goodwin moves to a crowded Cincinnati outfield, negligating any deep league value he was clinging onto, and Packy Naughton is merely a bullpen piece in my eyes longterm, despite having one of my favorite prospect names. No, this trade is all about Brandon Marsh and the improved chance we see him down the stretch for the Angels. Marsh has steadily been climbing up my prospect rankings lately thanks to his all-around offensive skills and potential for even more power. He’d be worth a look in 15+ team leagues if he gets the call this month.
Media Credit: Baseball Savant, Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire
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