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Trust the Propcess: Week 13 NFL Player Props

Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season is in full swing, with plenty of action taking place on Sunday. That means that there are lots of spots to choose from when it comes to player props. This week I just so happen to like three different types of props featuring players at three different positions. These players should be pretty popular in DFS circles this week as well, as they all have solid matchups. Let’s put last week’s losing record in the rearview mirror and get back on track. Here are some of my favorite Week 13 NFL player props.

Week 13 NFL Player Props

A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130 at FanDuel, PointsBet, and Wynn)

There are several revenge spots in Week 13, where a player is facing his former team. One of the more high-profile instances of a potential revenge game is with A.J. Brown. Brown is facing the Tennessee Titans this week, less than eight months after the team traded him to Philadelphia. Immediately following the trade, Brown went through one of the most intense workouts of his life and said that trading him was “going to be one of the biggest mistakes they’re ever going to make.” Brown is saying all the right things now, but it is clear that he wants that statement to ring true. As much as I am here for all of the petty, this is one instance in which I believe the matchup is even more advantageous to this player prop hitting than any perceived narrative.

Philadelphia has one of the strongest rushing attacks in the league, led by Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts. Having said that, this sets up as a game where Hurts could throw the ball more than usual. The Tennessee Titans are the biggest pass funnel in the NFL. No team has faced more pass attempts, and only Baltimore has faced fewer rushing attempts than Tennessee has this season. The Titans have given up 14 touchdowns by wide receivers this year, the third-highest in the league. Despite the Eagles averaging fewer than 30 pass attempts per game, Brown ranks in the top 10 among NFL wide receivers in both red zone targets and targets inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. Given the circumstances, I think the Eagles will make a concerted effort to target Brown in scoring territory.

Brown has physical advantages over nearly all NFL cornerbacks, and the Titans’ group is no different. We have seen bigger wideouts such as Christian Watson and Tee Higgins find the end zone against Tennessee over the past couple of weeks. Furthermore, Brown has enough experience as a former Titan to know what to expect from the likes of Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden. Three different books have the same odds on this player prop as I am writing up this blurb. But we all know how quickly these things can change. If you are tailing, make sure you do your due diligence and shop for the best price. As long as this prop remains at plus money, I think this is a solid bet.

Nick Chubb OVER 19.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110, MGM)

Last week I learned a costly albeit valuable lesson. I listed three different props for Jeff Wilson in his matchup against the Houston Texans. None of the three connected. The only thing worse than missing a player prop is missing three. With that in mind, I am going to once again target the Texans (hopefully that wasn’t the lesson), but am doing so with a single prop in mind. Nick Chubb has had at least one 20-yard rush in nine of 11 games this season. I expect Chubb to pop at least one such run against Houston this week. Even after keeping Wilson and the other Miami running backs in check last week, the Texans have allowed seven primary ball carriers to exceed this number. They are allowing an average of 1.57 yards per carry before contact, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL.

As I mentioned, Chubb has hit this line in 82 percent of his games this year. Perhaps even more impressive is that he has done so with Jacoby Brissett as Cleveland’s quarterback. Brissett acquitted himself nicely as a game-manager type of quarterback. But Deshaun Watson will be under center for the Browns on Sunday. No matter what we think about the man, Watson is universally recognized as a more talented player than Brissett. When we last saw him on a football field, he threw for over 300 yards in nine of 13 ballgames. Defenses will be forced to respect the pass more than they did with Brissett. That means the potential for fewer crowded boxes, which could make it even easier for Chubb to break a big play. He already leads the league in elusive rating and breakaway yards as it is.

With all of the hype surrounding Watson’s return to Houston, I think the Texans will do their best to limit his production. The last thing they want is to see him destroy them on the field after everything he has put them through over the past two years. I think they will sell out to stop Watson from having a big game. That strategy would leave Chubb as the primary beneficiary. Cleveland is also a seven-point favorite in this game. That means the game script should be in Chubb’s favor. He should get enough opportunities to bust a big play against a beatable front seven, making this one of my favorite Week 13 player props.

Trevor Lawrence OVER 21.5 Pass Completions (-134, Barstool)

Sunday’s game pitting the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Detroit Lions has the second-highest implied total on the Week 13 board. The 51-point total and close point spread (Detroit is currently favored by a single point) indicate that we should see plenty of offense from both teams on Sunday. Enter Trevor Lawrence, who has begun to show glimpses of why Jacksonville selected him with the top pick in last year’s draft. Lawrence has been uber-efficient in recent weeks. Over the past three games, Lawrence has completed 83 of 108 passes, good for a 76.9 percent completion rate. I expect him to continue that momentum against the Lions, who have struggled on the defensive end this year. I am a bit more bullish on Lawrence reaching his completion threshold as opposed to his yardage prop based on his year-to-date trends.

Lawrence has had at least 22 completions in eight of 11 contests but has only exceeded his Week 13 yardage prop six times. In games when Lawrence has exhibited expert accuracy, a corresponding yardage spike usually has not followed. Lawrence has completed at least 70 percent of his passes in six games this year but has only reached 250 yards in half of those. Oddly enough, in the four games, he has completed 75 percent of throws, he has only hit the 250-yard milestone once. Instead, Lawrence’s yardage totals are almost directly related to the number of times he throws the ball. He has surpassed the 250-yard mark in all six games he has attempted at least 37 passes. Conversely, when he has attempted fewer than 37 passes, he has yet to have more than 235 passing yards.

Another interesting wrinkle about this Week 13 player prop is that Lawrence has had at least 25 completions in all four of Jacksonville’s victories this season. Considering that Jacksonville is essentially a coinflip to win this game, that is another reason I like this prop. Detroit has also allowed the last five visiting quarterbacks they have faced to complete at least 23 passes. Jacksonville has several favorable matchups in the passing game that they should be able to take advantage of. Two of Detroit’s three primary cornerbacks allow a completion percentage of at least 71 percent on throws in their coverage. The same goes for linebacker Alex Anzalone, who cedes a completion rate of 81 percent. I expect another efficient outing from Trevor Lawrence this week and fully believe he will go over his Week 13 player prop for total completions.

For your traditional season-long leagues check out our Week 13 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex Rankings

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