Week 1 MOP Rankings for Fantasy Football

Sometimes, all it takes for a player to go from a fantasy zero to a fantasy hero is one big play. But what if that play never comes? Can a player still be a reliable contributor to your fantasy football squad without that long touchdown? This season, I am attempting to answer that question by looking at NFL box scores through a different lens.

I am taking away every player’s biggest play and re-ranking them based on the previous week’s stats. Below you will see a different set of numbers than the one you will see when you search traditional Week 1 leaderboards. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Week 1 MOP leaders! MOP in this instance stands for Minus One Play. Follow me down this glorious rabbit hole, if you will.

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If Player A catches six passes for 75 yards, he earns 10.5 fantasy points in Half-PPR leagues. Player B can match that by catching a 40-yard touchdown and doing nothing else the entire game. We may not care in the moment how those fantasy points come. But you will care the following week when you are trying to decide whether to start Player A or Player B. The same goes for the backup running back or tight end who vultures a touchdown. If you examine previous fantasy points scored, you may have a skewed view of what that player’s role is in his offense. Instead, by taking away his biggest play, you can better assess his value on an every-down basis. For example, which of these two players would you rather have on your roster with an eye towards Week 2?

Player X: Top-36 wide receiver in fantasy in Week 1
Player Y: 3.3 percent target share in Week 1

You probably prefer Player X. Well, congratulations, dear reader! You just made the case for Ben Skowronek! Oh well, at least he feels like a more viable option than Player Y. Except for the fact that Player Y is also Ben Skowronek. If we remove Skowronek’s 22-yard touchdown catch from his Week 1 ledger, you would reveal a literal nothing burger. Zero fantasy points. Minus One Play. Skowronek is, of course, an extreme example of my new metric. But you would be surprised at how many fantasy managers will wonder if Skowronek (or Raheim Sanders, or Hunter Long) is worth adding this week. Spoiler alert: they aren’t.

MOP leaders are a reverse-engineered set of consistency rankings. Instead of viewing consistency from week to week, using MOP rankings can help us better understand a player’s value every week. Of course, players will have both good and bad games throughout the season. As underwhelming as A.J. Brown’s Week 1 performance was, he would have zero fantasy points if you removed his best play. That does not mean that we should panic and sell him for pennies on the dollar. But I believe that over time, this tool can help cut some of the noise that clouds our judgment when making roster decisions.

MOP rankings are also a solid way to gauge volume. Players who get consistent touches are safer fantasy bets than players who do not. That is true even when players in the second group achieve extreme levels of efficiency. If you can diagnose when a player is going to score a long touchdown on a handful of opportunities, that is great. But volume is still king in fantasy football. If a player consistently lands higher in the MOP rankings than in actual fantasy points, they may be an underrated player to target later in the season.

For those curious, I am basing these rankings on Half-PPR scoring. Quarterback scoring is based on one point per 25 yards, with four points for a touchdown pass. Quarterbacks lose one point for an interception, while all players lose two points for a lost fumble. However, I believe the same logic would apply regardless of which format your league implements.

I hope I have sold you on the MOP leaders. Hopefully, my explanation makes sense, but any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Feel free to comment below or on Twitter. Enjoy!

Check out all of our Week 2 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings

Week 1 MOP Rankings

Quarterback Week 1 MOP Rankings and Takeaways

There is less of a discrepancy between the regular rankings and MOP rankings when it comes to quarterbacks. This makes sense because quarterbacks score more fantasy points than players at other positions. When you take away a six-point play from a group of 20-point scorers, it has less of an impact than taking away a six-point play from a group of 10-point scorers. The top three quarterbacks all ran for multiple touchdowns, which enabled their MOP rankings to remain sky high. Justin Herbert’s place among the Week 1 MOP rankings is an incredible sign for his 2025 prospects. Hopefully the Chargers remain as aggressive on offense as they were on Friday night.

Running Back Week 1 MOP Rankings and Takeaways

Now is where the fun begins. It is also where we can see the intent of MOP rankings. You may see that Jonathan Taylor finished outside the top 20 running backs in fantasy points in Week 1. That does not mean he had a bad game by any means. He was a top-10 fantasy back in terms of MOP points. He twice lost out on short touchdown runs when Daniel Jones scored instead. And just when we thought Taylor would be safe from vultured touchdowns after the Colts benched Anthony Richardson. Jahmyr Gibbs and D’Andre Swift were among those whose Week 1 MOP rankings paint a rosier picture than their results did. It will be very interesting to see how the Cleveland Browns utilize Dylan Sampson (MOP ranking of RB6) once Quinshon Judkins enters the mix.

The most significant dips in MOP rankings compared to realized fantasy points mainly came from running backs who caught touchdown passes. Again, this makes sense when you consider the circumstances. A catch is worth 0.5 points, on top of the six points for scoring and whatever yardage is added. Bijan Robinson (from RB2 to RB8), Bucky Irving (from RB19 to RB26), and Aaron Jones Sr. (from RB12 to RB28) are among those in this group. There isn’t much to worry about within this trio, though it is worth noting that Jordan Mason was more effective than Jones Sr. on the ground in Minnesota’s Monday night victory. I think anyone who looks at total fantasy points may fool themselves into thinking Mason is just the backup running back. That does not appear to be the case at all.

Wide Receiver Week 1 MOP Rankings and Takeaways

Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen grabbed the headlines, but fantasy managers should not worry about Ladd McConkey by any means. He will get his, and likely sooner rather than later. Johnston and Allen can still be potential Flex options if the Chargers are as aggressive as they looked in defeating division rival Kansas City. Other players, such as McConkey, who saw solid volume and who fantasy managers should expect to bounce back soon enough, include Drake London and Chris Olave. Olave’s ceiling is slightly lower due to his quarterback, however.  There are very encouraging signs for Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter based on their Week 1 MOP rankings. Both rookie wideouts were heavily involved in the game plan and should be treated as fantasy starters.

After much speculation that his foot injury could impact his 2025 campaign, Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed caught an early touchdown pass on his way to finishing as a fantasy WR2 in 12-team leagues. He even performed the famed Lambeau Leap. Did any of that assuage our fears? Perhaps. But Reed finished outside the top 40 wide receivers in Week 1 MOP points. Some of that may be due to the positive game script. The Packers led by double-digits for 47 out of 60 minutes on Sunday and only threw the ball 22 times. But Reed was not much of a volume guy last year, either. Reed’s situation and injury are definitely worth monitoring over the next couple of weeks.

Tight End Week 1 MOP Rankings and Takeaways

Holy Juwan Johnson! The veteran Saints tight end led all players at the position in Week 1 MOP points. See what happens when Taysom Hill finally goes away! We will need more than one week before we can anoint Johnson as an every-week starter. But his Week 1 effort was highly encouraging for his outlook going forward. Rookie Tyler Warren finished second on this week’s list, which is also noteworthy. Time will tell if Warren can make a similar splash this season as Raiders tight end Brock Bowers did a season ago. Bowers finished third last week, but was not the only tight end on his team to finish as a top-12 tight end in the Week 1 MOP rankings. Could Michael Mayer be a thing? And Kyle Pitts finished fourth this week among tight ends. Say it with me, folks – this could be the year!

Make sure to check out all of our Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!