Week 1 NFL DFS: Money Makers and Heart Breakers

The NFL is back, baby, and so are the Money Makers and Heart Breakers. I usually like to drop a funny pop culture reference here, but I am exhausted and passing on it this week. But if you are new around here: you can use this article as a sit/start for your season-long fantasy teams or as a who to play weekly in DFS lineups.

Week 1 always requires a little caution. We have projected roles, offseason personnel changes, and preseason clues, but we do not yet have regular-season usage data. That creates uncertainty, but it also creates opportunities to find value before the DFS field adjusts.

All recommendations below are limited to the Week 1 Sunday main slate.

Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 1 NFL DFS

💰 Money Maker – A player expected to outperform his salary and ownership.

💔 Heart Breaker – A popular or appealing option who may produce below expectations.

Let’s shake some money makers and avoid some heartbreak.

💰 Money Makers

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

Murray begins his Minnesota career in Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense with Justin Jefferson as his primary target. That combination immediately raises both his passing ceiling and efficiency potential.

Green Bay surrendered the 6th-most fantasy points to mobile QBs in 2025, giving Murray an elite rushing and passing floor. His salary hasn’t adjusted to his new environment, so he offers tournament-winning upside at a manageable price. I am not very big on Kyler Murray, but neither is he.

• FanDuel: $7,200
• DraftKings: $5,500

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield enters Week 1 with an aggressive offense, multiple playmakers, and a matchup that will force Tampa Bay to remain aggressive through the air. The matchup against the Bengals has the highest over/under of the main slate at 50.5

The Bengals have a great offense. Mayfield will have to attack downfield, and this gives him high-end touchdown upside. The Butcher, the Baker, the fantasy points maker!

• FanDuel: $7,500
• DraftKings: $5,900

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Goff opens at home against New Orleans in one of the highest-projected scoring environments on the slate. Detroit is favored by nearly a touchdown, and Goff has an excellent chance to produce multiple passing touchdowns with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta at his disposal. He provides the unusual combination of high floor and potentially high ceiling in Week 1.

NOTE: I have an obnoxious amount of Goff on season-long teams; there is a reason why.

• FanDuel: $7,800
• DraftKings: $6,000

Other players to consider at quarterback:

Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers

• Fanduel: $7,600
• DraftKings: $6,100

Malik Willis – Miami Dolphins

• Fanduel: $6,500
• DraftKings: $5,300

Running Backs

MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers

With Josh Jacobs unavailable, Lloyd should receive the first opportunity to lead Green Bay’s backfield.

The appeal isn’t just the number of carries. Lloyd could also receive passing-game work and valuable touches near the goal line. A projected workload in the 15-to-20-touch range makes him one of the slate’s most appealing low-cost running backs.

• FanDuel: $4,900
• DraftKings: $4,800

Travis Etienne Jr., New Orleans Saints

Etienne has an immediate opportunity to handle a significant workload with Alvin Kamara unavailable. We should see Etienne involved both as a runner and a pass catcher out of the backfield. He should have a high volume of touches in this game.

New Orleans may trail Detroit, but that would not necessarily remove Etienne from the game plan. His receiving ability gives him a way to remain productive in a negative game script, making him particularly interesting on full-PPR DraftKings.

• FanDuel: $6,800
• DraftKings: $5,900

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Brown brings exactly what we want in DFS: rushing volume, receiving involvement, and access to a productive offense. We already mentioned that this game will be a shootout.

Brown ended last season with 11 straight double-digit fantasy scores.  He scored 12 or more fantasy points in each of those games. Tampa Bay was middle of the road last season at defending running backs. This is another volume play in Week 1.

• FanDuel: $7,500
• DraftKings: $7,100

Other players to consider at running back:

Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions

• FanDuel: $9,100
• DraftKings: $8,000

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• FanDuel: $7,900
• DraftKings: $5,700

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson enters Week 1 as Green Bay’s clear top option after posting an 18.2% target share, a 68% route participation rate, and 61.1 receiving yards per game over the second half of last season.

With Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks off the roster, a condensed target tree paves the way for a major volume spike. He gets an intriguing matchup against Minnesota: while the Vikings allowed the fewest fantasy points to receivers last year, the departure of edge rusher Jonathan Greenard leaves major questions about their pass rush heading into the opener. Elementary my dear Watson!

• FanDuel: $6,400
• DraftKings: $5,900

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Olave should be the centerpiece of the New Orleans passing attack in a game where the Saints will be forced to throw. Last season, Olave was the epitome of consistency, with only 3 games where he did not reach double-digit fantasy scores.

Stack him with Tyler Shough. Olave combines massive target share with the route-running ability to create explosive plays. If Detroit pushes the pace, he could finish among the slate’s leaders in opportunities.

• FanDuel: $7,400
• DraftKings: $6,700

DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers

Metcalf provides Pittsburgh with a true field-stretching and contested-catch weapon. The talk in camp was how they need to get Metcalf the ball. In Week 1, they get a prime opportunity to get him going against a Falcons team that was burned significantly downfield last season by wide receivers.

He does not need double-digit receptions to deliver a strong fantasy day. A handful of downfield targets and one red-zone opportunity could be enough. That makes him a better tournament play than a cash-game option, but his touchdown ceiling belongs in Week 1 lineups.

• FanDuel: $7,000
• DraftKings: $5,400

Other players to consider at wide receiver:

Ladd McConkey – Los Angeles Chargers

• FanDuel: $6,500
• DraftKings: $5,900

Tre Tucker – Las Vegas Raiders

• FanDuel: $5,600
• DraftKings: $4,000

 Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

You may have noticed I like the Saints against the Lions. It is based on price and the potential shootout. Johnson offers an inexpensive way to gain exposure to a New Orleans offense that will have to pass to stay in the game.

He should work in the middle of the field and remain involved near the end zone. Johnson’s red-zone role makes him a strong salary-saving option. We all need to remember Juwan was a top-10 tight end in fantasy last season.

• FanDuel: $5,400
• DraftKings: $3,700

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Kraft returns to full participation after producing like a top-tier fantasy tight end prior to last season’s ACL injury. Expect him to serve as Jordan Love’s go-to option over the middle while offering steady touchdown upside. With the Packers needing to lean heavily on their passing attack, Kraft is a high-upside plug-and-play starter for Week 1.

• FanDuel: $6,300
• DraftKings: $4,500

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Warren should immediately occupy a meaningful receiving role in the Colts’ offense. Baltimore presents a challenging matchup, but Warren’s projected route participation, target potential, and red-zone role are more important than the matchup at a volatile tight-end position. He does not need an elite performance to provide value; steady targets and one scoring opportunity may be enough.

• FanDuel: $5,600
• DraftKings: $4,900

Other players to consider at tight end:

Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions

• FanDuel: $5,800
• DraftKings: $4,400

T.J. Hockenson – Minnesota Vikings

• FanDuel: $5,000
• DraftKings: $3,300

Defenses

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cleveland’s offensive line and quarterback situation give Jacksonville several paths to fantasy production. The Browns gave up the second most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses last season and do not look much better for the start of the 2026 season.

The Jaguars do not need to completely shut down Cleveland to deliver the value they need to create disruptive plays. The Browns will give them those opportunities. Cleveland rocks when it comes to letting defenses score fantasy points.

• FanDuel: $5,000
• DraftKings: $3,400

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers enter Week 1 with one of the slate’s most appealing defensive matchups. The Cardinals gave up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses last season and appear to have gotten worse instead of better on offense.

Look for the Chargers to generate pressure without constant blitzing, allowing the secondary to limit explosive plays. If Arizona is forced into obvious passing situations, the Chargers could produce sacks and turnovers in bunches.

• FanDuel: $4,600
• DraftKings: $3,500

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh’s fantasy appeal begins with its pass rush. It helps that Tua Tagovailoa will be the starting quarterback for the Falcons. The Steelers defense will get after Tua. Look for the Steelers to get some sacks, force fumbles, and create short-field opportunities.

A defensive touchdown is within their range of outcomes for the Steelers in Week 1.

• FanDuel: $4,900
• DraftKings: $3,300

💔 Heart Breakers

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Believe it or not, the Browns actually defend quarterbacks well. Whether that is because you simply do not need to throw so much to beat them is another story. This looks like a week where Lawrence may be asked to manage the game more than carry the offense against Cleveland.

The Browns’ pass rush can disrupt longer-developing routes, while Jacksonville’s defense may prevent this contest from becoming a shootout. Lawrence could play reasonably well without producing the passing volume or touchdowns required to give you a good fantasy day.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore presents a difficult opening assignment for Jones. Jones is coming back from an Achilles injury, and we don’t yet know how he will respond at full game speed.

The Ravens will pressure him to make quick throws and reduce his downfield opportunities. His rushing ability provides some protection, but the combination of defensive pressure, turnover risk, and an uncertain offensive environment lowers his ceiling.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Watson carries too many questions for Week 1. He has not played since October 7, 2024. It will be interesting to see if he can contribute at a high level again in the NFL.

Cleveland’s protection concerns create sack risk, while the Jaguars should have opportunities to pressure him into mistakes. Even if Watson produces some rushing points, his passing floor remains difficult to trust. And, let’s face it, no one is rooting for this guy to have success right now.

NOTE: Want to hear a joke? Deshaun Watson and Robert Kraft walk into a massage parlor…just kidding, I cannot joke about this stuff. Please fail Watson.

Running Backs

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders

Jeanty has returned to practice, but he is still recovering from an ankle injury and may surrender more touches than expected to Mike Washington Jr. The matchup against Miami is attractive, but we don’t yet know whether he will get a full workload. Jeanty could play well and still disappoint fantasy managers if Las Vegas limits his snaps or divides the backfield more evenly than anticipated.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor faces a Baltimore defense that can control the line of scrimmage and force Indianapolis into passing situations.

He remains a strong season-long starter, but in DFS he requires a high ceiling relative to cost. A difficult rushing matchup and uncertain touchdown outlook make it harder for Taylor to return tournament-winning value.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley remains a talented running back in a strong offense, but for DFS his outlook carries more risk than his name suggests. He is coming off a decline in efficiency, Philadelphia is installing a new offensive system, and Jalen Hurts remains a major threat to score touchdowns in the red zone. At $6,900 on DraftKings and $8,100 on FanDuel, Barkley needs both substantial yardage and scoring production to meet expectations. I would still play him in season-long formats but no way in DFS.

Wide Receivers

Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans

The caution around Carnell Tate isn’t about his matchup—New York’s boundary corners aren’t daunting enough to make him an automatic fade.

The real issue is uncertainty. Tate is a rookie adjusting to the NFL, and he failed to haul in any of his six preseason targets. With Brian Daboll taking over as offensive coordinator and bringing Wan’Dale Robinson with him from New York, target distribution in Tennessee remains a complete mystery.

If you are playing Tate in Week 1, you have to be crazy or desperate. I certainly hope you are not desperate in Week 1.

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Egbuka is healthy enough to play and has an appealing matchup against Cincinnati, but his Week 1 target share remains uncertain. Tampa Bay has several established receiving options that are fully healthy. The training-camp enthusiasm does not guarantee immediate regular-season volume. I’ll pass on Emeka for Week 1.

Khalil Shakir and DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills

Proceed with caution when relying on Buffalo’s receivers in Week 1. Khalil Shakir is working through a late-camp injury, and while he may suit up, his actual effectiveness remains questionable. DJ Moore brings elite talent for his Bills debut, but how targets will shake out behind Josh Allen’s spread-it-around approach is still a mystery. Facing a stout Houston secondary that dominated wideouts last year, the Bills’ pass catchers carry a low floor. Unless you have to start Moore, hold off on trusting this receiving corps until we see how the target tree settles.

Tight Ends

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid should remain involved, but involvement does not always translate into fantasy points. He has received fewer snaps and targets each of the past two seasons, mainly from injuries. But as we have talked about the Bills spread the ball around on offense. This looks like a game where Josh Allen is doing a lot of work himself against a very good defense.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay boasted one of the league’s stingiest tight end defenses last season, allowing just 759 receiving yards and six touchdowns to the position with only a single tight end topping double-digit fantasy points against them over the final 10 weeks. T.J. Hockenson now steps into Week 1 adjusting to a new quarterback in Kyler Murray. While Murray’s past chemistry with Trey McBride offers a glimmer of hope for tight end targets, the brutal matchup makes starting Hockenson in the opener feel far too risky.

Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns

Temper your Week 1 expectations for Harold Fannin Jr. The Jacksonville matchup is reasonable, but the real uncertainty sits inside Cleveland’s offense. Between target competition and lingering questions under center with Deshaun Watson, Fannin’s early-season usage remains a wild card. He has the upside to evolve into a legitimate target hog as the year progresses, but Week 1 carries too much variance. You are playing him in season-long but avoid him in DFS.

The Final Word

Week 1 is about balancing opportunity with uncertainty.

Do not treat preseason depth charts and projected roles as established facts. Build lineups around players with multiple paths to production, then use selective volatility to create tournament upside.