Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks

And right back to it we go. For as much as we stress and obsess on a daily basis about our survivor picks, we wouldn’t have it any other way. The goal here is to be the last man standing, but the problem is that it only applies to a select few of us. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t put our best foot forward and strive to bring home a survivor title. Let’s trust the process and dig into our Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks.

At the risk of hedging here, Week 1 is often the most difficult. While we have thoughts about teams and who we think is better than others, is it really that original? We don’t want to simply run down the list of highest spreads and make our picks. Granted, to a point, that’s what I did below, but there is one omission. Ultimately, the objective of Week 1 is to pick the right game to fade.

That’s not to say things will really get that much clearer in Week 2, but at least we’ll have some legitimate NFL action to base things on. The other piece of strategy is to be a little bit careful with your selections. This week, there are two games, my third and fourth picks, that I like more. However, looking towards the future, I’d prefer to use another team and save those teams for later in the season.

Some weeks will have more options than others, and tough decisions must be made. Let’s take a look at those options as we begin to form some opinions on 2025 NFL season. The good news is that as the season progresses, we’ll have more data to work with. Teams essentially taking the preseason off doesn’t help things at the start of the season.

Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks

1. Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – Cardinals -6.5

How many more times will we actually look to use the Arizona Cardinals this season? While they are on the road, facing the New Orleans Saints is a soft landing spot to begin the season. Spencer Rattler failed to impress last season, and he’s the Week 1 starter under center for the Saints.

Kyler Murray is healthy, and Marvin Harrison is ready to take the next step forward in year two. This comes down to the offenses, and I can’t see Rattler outscoring Murray.

2. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns – Bengals -4.5

It’s hard to forget what the Bengals did to us in Week 1 last year. So far this summer, it appears that Cincinnati has learned its lesson, which is a good thing. Their starters got some run this preseason, and now they enter Week 1 with some momentum.

The Bengals have defeated the Browns in their last three meetings, so that provides some optimism. Plus, do we really trust Joe Flacco to outgun Joe Burrow? Cleveland’s defense won’t be able to shut Burrow down, and if they can, the Bengals also have Chase Brown. Questions abound with the Browns’ running game as well, so that puts the onus on Flacco.

3. Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans – Broncos -8.5

A rookie quarterback in Week 1 is never ideal. Granted, Cam Ward could come out of the gates with force, as he did look solid in the preseason, but it’s hard to count on him. Traveling to Denver to begin his NFL career is not an easy task.

Across the field, we have Bo Nix looking to take the next step in year two. We should see the difference in quarterback progression, which will lead to a Denver victory.

4. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys – Eagles -7.5

After winning the Super Bowl, could a letdown be possible for the Philadelphia Eagles? Quite simply, they are too good for that to happen. As they look for a repeat, the Eagles don’t have any major holes, and all of their offensive skill players return.

The Cowboys do have a healthy Dak Prescott, and they added George Pickens to give him another weapon, but that might not be enough in Week 1. Dallas is still sorting out their running game, which has more questions than answers. Philadelphia should be able to control the tempo and keep the Cowboys at arm’s length.

5. New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Raiders – Patriots -2.5

Josh McDaniels is back on the New England sidelines, and it’s time for Drake Maye to reap the benefits of being in year two. He now has Stefon Diggs to throw to, and TreVeyon Henderson adds a dynamic element to the backfield.

The Raiders do have an explosive rookie of their own in Ashton Jeanty, but things get thin after that. Brock Bowers and veteran Geno Smith under center should keep it close, but it’s hard not to go with the home team here. However, the margin will be tight, and be prepared to sweat.

6. Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings – Bears +1.5

Here we go again with that year two quarterback. This time, it’s Caleb William,s and he gets the benefit of Ben Johnson’s offensive mind on the sideline, among other things. Chicago truly invested in the offensive line this offseason, and Williams has tons of offensive weapons to exploit after Luther Burden and Colston Loveland were added in the draft.

Due to his suspension, Jordan Addison will miss the first three games of the season. so that makes things a little tougher for JJ McCarthy. While he was on the sidelines last season, this will be McCarthy’s first NFL action. A road divisional matchup isn’t exactly the best place to start either.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers – Jaguars -3.5

While the Panthers, and Bryce Young specifically, did look better toward the end of the season, the Jaguars look to embark on a new era this week. With Liam Coen patrolling the sidelines, this should be what Trevor Lawrence needs to reach his potential. This could be another close game, but look for Lawrence to bring Jacksonville the victory.

8. Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (game is in Brazil) – Chiefs -3.5

Divisional games are tough, but the Chiefs are the better team here. It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, and that’s especially the case on prime time in a big spot. The Chargers are still looking to establish their run game which will make things more difficult early on. Kansas City is the more well rounded team and that counts for something here.

Week 1 NFL Survivor Fade

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants – Commanders -6.5

Jayden Daniels came within one game of the Super Bowl, and for his troubles, he gets one of the toughest schedules in the league. Facing the Giants should be a soft landing spot to begin the season, but I’m thinking otherwise.

Washington traded Brian Robinson, and there was drama swirling around Terry McLaurin all summer. The Giants added Russell Wilson and appear to have a different mindset compared to last season. Having Abdul Carter rushing the quarterback doesn’t hurt either. We know there’s going to be at least one upset this week, and this is a spot that seems ripe for it.