Week 10 NFL Player Props

Last week was the quintessential “process over results” scenario for my NFL player prop picks. Of course, we all know that I wouldn’t be touting “process over results” if I had gone 3-0. But that doesn’t make the sentiment any less true in this instance. In any event, it is time to turn the page. Here are some of my favorite Week 10 NFL player props. As always, pricing is subject to change, so adjust as you see fit.

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Week 10 NFL Player Props

1. Laquon Treadwell, Indianapolis Colts: OVER 27.5 Receiving Yards (-125, TheScoreBet)

2. Laquon Treadwell, Indianapolis Colts: OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-111, BetMGM)

3. Laquon Treadwell, Indianapolis Colts: 30+ Receiving Yards (-108, FanDuel)

My next Week 10 NFL player prop is a bet on Laquon Treadwell of the Indianapolis Colts to surpass his receiving yardage barrier. As you can see, you have several routes to take depending on your confidence level and which sportsbooks are available to you.

Following the trades of Josh Downs and Keenan Allen, Treadwell is far and away the Colts’ wide receiver with the most reps this season. Treadwell has run 264 routes this season. That is more than any Indianapolis player except Downs. With Downs, Allen, and tight end Tyler Warren on the field most of the year, Treadwell has earned few targets. He has just 28 targets on those 264 total routes run. But Treadwell now has significantly less competition for targets. No other Colts wideout has run more than 52 routes this year. Deion Burks, Ashton Dulin, and Anthony Gould are likely to earn more playing time. But I believe Daniel Jones will look to Treadwell more often than those players.

We haven’t even discussed the veteran wide receiver’s matchup yet. And it is a favorable one. The Miami Dolphins rank dead last in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) against the pass this season. They have allowed the league’s highest completion percentage and the second-highest yards per attempt. Since their bye week, three wide receivers have four or more targets in a game against Miami. Those three wideouts have combined to catch 18 of 20 targets for 238 yards. Treadwell only needs to contribute a fraction of that efficiency to blow by his receiving yardage target numbers.

While Downs has played in all nine games for Indianapolis this year, Keenan Allen missed Week 4. In that game, Treadwell posted season-highs of five receptions, six targets, and 42 receiving yards. With Allen and Downs now out of the picture, those feel like reasonable expectations for Treadwell’s Week 10 output. If you’re looking for some more bang for your buck, a mini-ladder on receiving yards and/or receptions could be in store here.

Drew Lock, Seattle Seahawks: UNDER 204.5 Passing Yards (-112, BetRivers/Bally’s)

I was tempted to make a splashy pick by betting on a Fernando Mendoza prop in his first NFL game. However, the more I thought about it, the more this prop stood out to me in this game. Drew Lock has basically played three full games this season for the Seattle Seahawks. He has not thrown the ball more than 28 times in any of them. Lock is also dealing with multiple injuries, which could impact his effectiveness. He failed to complete any passes downfield last week, with his longest completion just 18 yards. I expect another game of low-volume, high-percentage throws from Lock against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Seahawks are heavy favorites to defeat Las Vegas in Mendoza’s NFL debut. Seattle would be wise to let their running game and defense do most of the heavy lifting on Sunday. At the same time, I expect the Raiders to run an offensive game plan designed to keep this game close. That should include a major emphasis on the running game, along with short throws. I would not be surprised if this game featured fewer total possessions on both sides than the average NFL contest. Most books set Lock’s pass attempts at 28.5, so I don’t mind going that route. But I think the under on his passing yardage prop offers more value.

Among 38 NFL quarterbacks with at least 80 dropbacks this year, Lock has the sixth-lowest average depth of target. Three of the five quarterbacks with lower aDOT numbers than Lock are backup quarterbacks, and two of those have since been replaced. Given Seattle’s unwillingness to push the ball downfield with Lock and an expected favorable game script, it feels like a lot to ask for Lock to exceed 200 passing yards in this game. If you do not have access to BetRivers or Bally’s, most major sportsbooks have Drew Lock’s passing yardage threshold in the 200-202 range. I would be fine playing this at 200 or above.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 250+ Passing Yards (-125, DraftKings/Fanatics)

Brock Purdy leads all quarterbacks in QBR and is second in yards per attempt and third in quarterback rating among 34 signal-callers with at least 100 pass attempts this season. Purdy is much more than a matchup merchant. So, when he and the San Francisco 49ers get a favorable draw as they do in Week 10 against the Dallas Cowboys, it’s wheels up. San Francisco leads the NFL in pass-block win rate, while Dallas ranks 30^th in pass-rush win rate. Purdy should have plenty of time to pick the Cowboys apart from the pocket on Sunday.

Dallas ranks 30^th in DVOA and 27^th in EPA against the pass this season. They also rank 28^th in both fantasy points and expected fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. But what could work in Purdy’s favor in this game even more than the Dallas defense is their offense. The showdown on Sunday between these NFC rivals features a massive 55.5-point implied total. Though San Francisco is favored, the Cowboys have a healthy implied total of 26 points. Purdy’s passing numbers are often suppressed because the 49ers enjoy big leads and their defense stifles opposing offenses. Purdy may not be afforded that luxury in this game. The good news is that when San Francisco has needed Purdy to carry the load, he has delivered.

Including the playoffs, Purdy has thrown the ball 30 or more times in a game where San Francisco has given up at least 23 points 17 times in his career. Purdy has finished 15 of those 17 games with 250 or more passing yards. He has at least 284 passing yards in 11 of those 17 outings. If the Cowboys can keep up with the 49ers on the scoreboard, Purdy should be able to have a big day. I would not be surprised if Brock Purdy led all quarterbacks in passing yards in Week 10.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 10 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!