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Week 12 NFL DFS: Money Makers & Heart Breakers

I hope everyone in the United States had a Happy Thanksgiving this week. I am truly thankful for the opportunity to write this article and all of you that read it.

Before we get into the article let’s talk about some personal vibe and attitude, especially since we are hitting the holiday season. How you behave is like a magnet. Positive attracts and negative pushes away. So, when you are out and about this this holiday season, be kind, and positive. Wish people well, hold the door for the person behind you in line, let people merge in on the highway (that is for my Boston people). Also, thank people who do this for you.

Let’s be out there with a smile, smiles and positive attitudes really are contagious. It is amazing how so many little gestures will make someone else’s day.

Have a great weekend!

Week 12 NFL DFS

Week 12 is waiting on us. So, let’s get to Money Makers and Heart Breakers for the Week 12 NFL DFS Main Slate. And don’t forget, you can also use these insights as sit/start advice for your weekly lineups.

Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:

💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations

💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations

💰 Money Makers


Gardiner Minshew – The Colts will play the Buccaneers in Week 12. The Buccaneers pretty much funnel opposing teams to the pass, as they give up the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Minshew has struggled in his last 2 games but those were against teams that defend the pass exceptionally well. Coming out of the bye you can expect the Colts to prepare their offense to be passing often. Minshew Mania is back! Yeah, say your prayers and drink your milk all you little Minshewmaniacs, because the Minshew is bringing it in Week 12.

$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,700 on FanDuel

Josh Allen – Josh Allen is good. The Eagles pass defense is, well, not so good. The Eagles give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks.  In the past three games, the Eagles have given up over 300 yards in two of them and multiple passing touchdowns in each game. With the change at offensive coordinator last week the Bills came out getting people in space. Allen passed for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns. If you want to pay up at quarterback this is the week to do it with Allen.

$8,100 on DraftKings
$9,200 on FanDuel

CJ Stroud – CJ Stroud has been on absolute fire. In the past 3 games, Stroud has passed for 1,162 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is presented with another nice matchup this week against a Jaguars team that gives up the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The match-up is sweet and the quarterback has been on fire. There is much to give thanks for here. This game also has the highest over-under on the main slate for Sunday at 48.5. Stroud gets loud in Week 12.

$7,700 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel

Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 12

Derek Carr

$5,800 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel

Trevor Lawrence

$6,400 on DraftKings
$7,800 on FanDuel

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,400 on FanDuel

Running Backs

Jerome Ford – In 10 games this season 10 different running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Broncos. The Broncos give up on average 138 yards and a touchdown rushing and another 6 catches and 44 yards receiving to running backs. They are the worst team at defending the running back position. Ford has 3 straight games with double-digit fantasy points. This is a spot where both Ford and Kareem Hunt should produce.

$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,700 on FanDuel

Rachaad White – Rachaad White is averaging 18 touches per game on the season. In Week 12 the Buccaneers play the Colts who give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Running backs average 25 carries for 99 yards and a touchdown rushing and another 5 receptions for 40 yards receiving. This is a plus match-up for White in a situation where he has already been a volume producer at running back. White has 5 straight weeks of scoring 12 or more fantasy points. IF white gets the volume he has this is an easy BOOM week for him.  (Yes this was my bold prediction for Week 12 as well)

$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel

Kyren Williams – The Rams will play the Cardinals in Week 12/ Last week this guy named Devin Singletary ripped the Cardinals for 112 yards and a touchdown. As a matter of fact every single week this season a running back has scored double-digit fantasy points against the Cardinals. That’s because the Cardinals give up the third most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. In Week 6 Williams ran 20 times for 158 yards and a touchdown against this Cardinals defense. This is the perfect spot for him to return from injury and blow up.

$6,600 on DraftKings
$8,200 on FanDuel

Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 12

Derrick Henry

$6,400 on DraftKings
$7,800 on FanDuel

Isaiah Pacheco

$6,200 on DraftKings
$6,600 on FanDuel

Rhamondre Stevenson

$5,800 on DraftKings
$6,800 on FanDuel

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs – How bad are the Eagels against the pass? Well, they give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers, it is that bad. The wide receiver position averages 17 receptions, 193 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per week against the Eagles. Coming off a tough match-up against the Jets this is the perfect bounce-back spot for Diggs to produce big.  Diggs has a 33% target share and 43% share of the Bills air yards. It gets even better, as against teams that are in the bottom 10 at defending wide receivers this season Diggs has averaged 13 targets, 85 yards, and a touchdown. The Bills feed him in the plus the match-ups and I expect that to continue in Week 12.

$8,800 on DraftKings
$8,700 on FanDuel

Michael Pittman – Pittman and Josh Downs should both be producing in Week 12. The Buccaneers give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams wide receivers. Brandon Aiyuk scorched this defense last week for 156 yards and a touchdown. Pittman has 5 straight weeks of double-digit fantasy scores. How involved is Michael Pittman, he has 30% target share and 32% share of the air yards of the Colts passing game.

$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,600 on FanDuel

Demario Douglas – I know you are reading this and thinking, seriously, what is wrong with Mike this week? A Patriots wide receiver? Ok, I get your concern but hear me out. In the last 4 games, Douglas has seen 29 targets. He also has 3 double-digit fantasy scores in those 4 games. In the last three games Douglas has led Patriots wide receivers in snap count. In Week 9 Douglas had a 33% target share. Great week to plug him in as the opponents are the Giants. The Giants give up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

$4,400 on DraftKings
$6,100 on FanDuel

Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 12

Adam Thielen (Titans 6th)

$7,300 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel

Puka Nacua

$7,600 on DraftKings
$8,200 on FanDuel

Darius Slayton (Patriots 10th)  Puca Nakua (Cardinals 14)

$3,500 on DraftKings
$5,700 on FanDuel

Tight Ends

David Njoku – Njoku saw a 35% target share in Week 11. That was 15 targets which he turned into 7 receptions and 56 yards. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has his favorite target so the volume should be there for Njoku in Week 12. Do you know what makes this even better? The opponent is the Broncos and they stink at defending tight ends. The Broncos give up more fantasy points to tight ends than any other team in the NFL. The stars are aligning for Njoku in Week 12. I wouldn’t Njoku around on this one.

$4,100 on DraftKings
$5,700 on FanDuel

Pat Freiermuth – Guess who is back, Muth is back. Well, he is sort of back. The Steelers play the Bengals in Week 12. The Bengals are the second friendliest team to tight ends in fantasy. Factor in a new offensive coordinator and it appears the Steelers may get back to what they do well in the passing game. Throw the ball to Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. If you are desperate what do you have to lose?

$2,900 on DraftKings
$4,900 on FanDuel

Evan Engram – Engram is second on the Jaguars in target share with 22%. The past two games the Jaguars have played have been against teams that defend tight ends well. In Week 12 the Jaguars play the team that gives up the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, the Texans. Engram will bounce back into form this week in an easy match-up. There will be a lot of passing in this Jaguars/Texans game.

$4,200 on DraftKings
$5,800 on FanDuel

Other Tight Ends DFS Picks for Week 12

Jonnu Smith – Saints 8th

$3,400 on DraftKings
$4,600 on FanDuel

Taysom Hill (Falcons 4th)

$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,500 on FanDuel

Trey McBride (Rams 6th)

$4,700 on DraftKings
$6,100 on FanDuel


Broncos – The Denver defense has really stepped it up the past 3 games. Primarily with interceptions and fumble recoveries. They have 5 interceptions, 7 fumble recoveries, and 5 sacks over those 3 games. That was against 3 pretty good offenses in the Chiefs, Bills, and Vikings. In Week 12 they are playing the Browns. The Browns give up 3 sacks, an interception, and a fumble recovery on average weekly to opposing defenses. This looks like a week the Broncos can get you between 8 to 10 points.

$3,600 on DraftKings
$4,100 on FanDuel

Giants – The Giants’ defense has put up good fantasy numbers when playing against teams giving up lots of fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses. The Giants defense has scored double-digit fantasy points in 3 of the last 5 games. The Patriots are the next lousy team in line for the Giants. The Patriots give up the third most fantasy points to defenses. We are looking at 3 sacks and an interception at the very least, and we don’t even know who is starting at quarterback for the Patriots right now.

$3,500 on DraftKings
$4,600 on FanDuel

Texans – It is funny that I have the Texans listed here as this game is projected as the highest over-under on the main slate. But the Jaguars give up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing defenses. In the past two games, the Texans’ defense has managed to get to 8 fantasy points. They have 8 sacks, 3 interceptions and a fumble recovery in those 2 games. If you want to pay down for a defense this is the one.

$3,000 on DraftKings
$3,300 on FanDuel

Chiefs (Raiders 8th)

More Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty

💔Heart Breakers

Quarter Backs

Russell Wilson – The Broncos are playing the Browns in Week 12. The Browns are the toughest team to score fantasy points against especially for quarterbacks. Only Gardiner Minshew and Lamar Jackson have really had good games against this defense and they each did it by running in 2 touchdowns. If Wilson is going to have a chance this week to score over 20 fantasy points it must be with his legs. Not a bad tournament play. I am out in cash or season-long.

Jalen Hurts – I love it when I can slide a big name in here and some people freak out. You must understand that as a Heartbreaker it doesn’t mean he will totally crap out. It means he will perform at a lower level than expected. The Bills’ defense gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Hurts is a stud and if you have him you are playing him in season-long. But don’t play him in DFS at all this week.

Aiden O’Connell – Sometimes I live a gimme for a heartbreaker. O’Connell is the gimme. The Raiders play the Chiefs in Week 12. Not a single quarterback this season has surpassed 20 fantasy points against the Chiefs’ defense. This defense is good. Aiden is not so good. Chiefs roll this poor guy.

Running Backs

James Cook – I love James Cook. I just wanted to start with that. But good defenses change how coaches approach game script. The Eagles are literally the stingiest defense when it comes to running backs and fantasy scoring. The Eagles funnel teams to the pass. This is a case of game script that will most likely hurt Cook in Week 12.

Alvin Kamara – Why is Alvin Kamara here? Because the Falcons’ defense also funnels teams to the pass. The Falcons give up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs, right behind the Eagles. So play Kamara in season long and he may hit his floor in the passing game. I am avoiding him in DFS, even with Michael Thomas out. This game is going to be bigger for Chris Olave and Rahid Shaheed.

Jonathan Taylor – There is a trend here. It is that I am not for paying up for running backs in tough matchups. The Buccaneers are third on the list for defending the running back position well. As I stated earlier in the article Minshew Mania will be running wild, and Taylor will not be.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton – Courtland Sutton has been pretty good the past 5 games as he has a touchdown in each. The Browns are up in Week 12. They defend the pass exceptionally well. The Browns give the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Essentially if Sutton doesn’t score a touchdown this week you are looking at maybe 4 catches for 40 yards. Yuck.

Keenan Allen – Why is Keenan Allen on this list? He is one of the few studs who you should be playing in season-long. The Match up stinks. The Ravens are a top 4 team at defending wide receivers. Will he get the volume to overcome this and score more than 10 points? Yes, I think he will. So don’t get cute in season-long; play him. But once again, if you pay up in DFS Allen will probably make you cry with the production at the cost he will give you this week.

Deandre Hopkins – Hopkins has been a roller coaster ride this season. Some good games, even a great game sprinkled in with nothing games here and there. Hopkins is a guy that can get it done in a tough match-up like he did against the Falcons in Week 8, or crap completely out in a great match-up like he did Week 10 against the Buccaneers. I like roller coasters, just not this one. He may be the most unpredictable wide receiver out there.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant – You want to talk about me taking an easy pick so I can start my Thanksgiving Day. Noah Fant against the Niners defense that defends the tight end position extremely well. Only one tight end all season has scored 10 or more fantasy points against this defense. With Geno Smith dinged up, an offense that doesn’t call his number much you can bank on Fant continuing to struggle through Week 12.

Hunter Henry – The Giants are on the slate for the Patriots in Week 12. The Giants are a top-10 team at defending the tight end. I don’t even know who will be starting at quarterback for the Patriots right now which makes this an even easier call. This looks like another 3 catches for 21 yards type of game for Henry in Week 12.

NOTE: This week I could have written about so many tight ends as heartbreakers that it was tough to find one that none of us expect to stink. This position is just too easy for me to tell you who stinks.

Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from Fantrax, follow us on X and @MikeReedyFF for more great content

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