Legendary rock and roller Meat Loaf once opined that two out of three ain’t bad. That might have to be my new motto regarding this column. I went 2-1 once again with last week’s NFL player props. It seems like that has been a weekly occurrence this season, as I am now 24-14 through 13 weeks. I am certainly not complaining, and hopefully the same goes for anyone who has been tailing my plays. This week’s slate has some interesting matchups, even with six teams on a bye. Here are a few of my favorite NFL player props for Week 14.
NFL Week 14 Player Props
Calvin Ridley 60+ Receiving Yards (-135, DraftKings)
First, some rationale behind why I prefer the alt yardage before I get to my rationale behind backing Calvin Ridley. Most sportsbooks have Ridley’s receiving yardage prop this week set between 63.5 and 65.5 yards. DraftKings has the best number at 63.5, with the over at -120. They also have a price of -135 for Ridley to record at least 60 receiving yards. A -120 bet carries implied odds of 57.45 percent, while a -135 bet carries implied odds of 54.55 percent. I believe there is at least a three percent chance that Ridley could land between 60 and 63 receiving yards. Therefore, I would rather pay the extra juice in return for the four-yard buffer.
As for the play itself, Ridley has played six games since the Tennessee Titans traded away DeAndre Hopkins. Ridley has at least 73 yards in four of the six. He also excels versus man coverage, which is noteworthy considering this week’s matchup. Tennessee is facing the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. Jacksonville plays man coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL. They also struggle mightily in that alignment. The Jaguars are allowing 7.16 yards per coverage snap when playing man coverage. Ridley is averaging 2.74 yards per route run versus man coverage. That number jumps to 3.8 YPRR when factoring in just the last six weeks.
My one loss last week was a bet on Texans receiver Tank Dell, who was also facing the Jaguars. However, Nico Collins racked up 119 yards in that game, easily exceeding his receiving yardage prop. Collins is the unquestioned alpha wideout in Houston, as Ridley is in Tennessee. Ridley has earned 51 targets across the last six games. If that usage continues on Sunday, he should be able to register at least 60 yards. Throw in a little revenge narrative for good measure, and this is one of my favorite Week 14 NFL player props.
Geno Smith UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-120, Bet365)
My next Week 14 NFL player prop is a bet against Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. The Seattle signal-caller is among the league leaders in passing yards this season. But converting those yards into passing scores has not been Smith’s strong suit this season. Smith has just 13 passing touchdowns in 12 games this year. That includes a total of five in five road games. He has only thrown multiple touchdowns in two of 12 games this season. Smith threw for just 20 touchdowns in 15 games last year, so this trend is nothing new. As much as I like this as a bet against Smith, I like it even more as a bet on the Arizona Cardinals’ defense.
Arizona has been a dominant defense over their past six games. They have given up four total passing touchdowns in that stretch. Furthermore, the Cardinals have not allowed a touchdown in three straight home games during this span. Not a passing touchdown. Not a rushing touchdown. Nothing. Overall, Arizona has given up three passing touchdowns in six home games this year. These trends on both sides of the equation make this a solid play for me. Unders are usually a sweat, but I am taking the under on Geno Smith’s passing touchdowns this week.
Check out all of our Week 14 Rankings: QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex
Justin Herbert 225+ Passing Yards (-130, ESPNBet)
Not only should you always price shop between various sportsbooks, but oftentimes books themselves will post contradictory pricing. That is the case this week with ESPNBet and their offerings on Justin Herbert’s passing props. The over/under on Herbert’s passing yards is 224.5. ESPNBet has the over listed at -135. Yet, if you look at their alternate yardage props, Herbert is -130 to record at least 225 yards.
It is the same prop at two different prices. This is free value, and it happens more often than you would think. I believe we are getting some value on Herbert based on his quiet game last week. His yardage prop was right around 250 a week ago. We are getting a 10 percent discount from a yardage standpoint in Week 14. And I can easily argue that the matchup is better this week.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been getting abused in pass coverage over the past several weeks. Since Week 8, they rank 29th in the NFL in DVOA versus the pass. They have allowed three straight quarterbacks to record at least 262 passing yards. That in itself is not the end of the world. But two of those quarterbacks were Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell. Before facing the Chiefs, Young had thrown for at least 250 yards in one of 23 NFL games. O’Connell had done so twice in 15 games before last week. While they have struggled on the back end, Kansas City is still an elite run defense. With J.K. Dobbins out, the Chargers would be wise to attack the Chiefs through the air. That should lead to Justin Herbert throwing for at least 225 yards on Sunday night.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!