Two weeks are in the books, and we finally have some regular-season volume to work with. It is tempting to chase every player who scored last Sunday, but that is how a good Week 2 play becomes an expensive Week 3 mistake.
For this week’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers, I am starting with the matchup. Then I want to know whether the player has the touches or targets to take advantage of it. Finally, I look at the DFS price. Two games of defensive data do not tell the whole story, but they give us a useful starting point when we pair them with workload and injury news.
The best part is that after Week 3, we really start to get to know who teams are. What offenses are good at, and what defenses do or don’t defend well. It will help us in DFS and throughout the season. I am actually excited about this.
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Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 3 NFL DFS
💰 Money Maker – A player expected to outperform his salary and ownership.
💔 Heart Breaker – A popular or appealing option who may produce below expectations.
Let’s shake some money makers and avoid some heartbreak.
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens
This game has one of the state’s highest projected totals: 52.5 points. Jackson’s rushing floor and Baltimore’s concentrated passing offense give him tournament-winning upside. Quarterbacks have also done quite a bit of running on the Cowboys’ defense; they have given up a league-high 63 yards on the ground per week to quarterbacks. Lamar is a high-floor, high-ceiling play in Week 3. You should get high with Lamar.
- FanDuel: $8,600
- DraftKings: $7,500
Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers
Bryce passed for 361 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 1. He followed that up in Week 2 with 287 yards and 3 more touchdowns. That’s a lot of yards and 3 touchdowns each week. He faces the Browns in Week 3. They give up the eleventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Young is short in stature but big in production.
- FanDuel: $7,600
- DraftKings: $5,600
Drew Lock | Seattle Seahawks
In relief for an injured Sam Darnold, Dew passed for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cardinals in Week 2. The matchup in Week 3 is against an even softer pass defense, the Washington Commanders. The Commanders gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the first two weeks of the season. Quarterbacks have averaged 3.5 touchdowns per game thus far, leading the league. If Darnold is healthy, switch this name to his. Drew is a lock for production against the Commanders.
- FanDuel: $6,900
- DraftKings: $5,200
Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills
- FanDuel: $9,100
- DraftKings: $8,000
Geno Smith | New York Jets
- FanDuel: $ 6,700
- DraftKings: $4,900
Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs
- FanDuel: $8,100
- DraftKings: $6,200
Quarterback Notes: I also like CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy to produce this week. Both players have nice matchups, and Purdy simply seems to produce multiple touchdowns weekly. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are players I would pay up for in DFS as they are essentially guaranteed production. Geno Smith will have a shot this week against a Lions defense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Lastly, Deshaun Watson is a sneaky play against the Panthers defense, which you can pass against.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker | Kansas City Chiefs
If you read my work, you know everything I write about Walker is gushing. That’s because he’s had massive volume in the first two weeks: 56 touches, 47 carries, 16 targets, and 290 rushing yards. A player averaging 28 touches and eight targets should be treated as an elite DFS building block, because that is what he is. Massive volume and massive production what more could you ask for?
- FanDuel: $8,300
- DraftKings: $7,400
Ashton Jeanty | Las Vegas Raiders
Jeanty has averaged 27 touches while drawing at least six targets in both games. He is right behind Walker in volume and in this article. This week, the Raiders play the Saints, and the Saints give up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. Running backs average 118 yards rushing and 1.5 touchdowns per game against the Saints’ defense. The Raiders are riding the Jeanty train weekly, and it is working.
- FanDuel: $7,700
- DraftKings: $7,100
Quinshon Judkins | New England Patriots
The Browns play the Panthers in Week 3. The Panthers give up the most fantasy points to running backs so far this season. Running backs average 173.5 yards and 2 touchdowns rushing per game against the Panthers. Judkins needs a useful workload, not an elite game. If Judkins gets the 15 touches he has been averaging a game, we will see production in Week 3.
- FanDuel:$6,100
- DraftKings: $5,500
Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals
- FanDuel: $7,500
- DraftKings:$6,600
David Montgomery | Houston Texans
- FanDuel: $6,600
- DraftKings: $6,000
Omarion Hampton | Los Angeles Chargers
- FanDuel: $7,200
- DraftKings: $6,800
Other Running Back Notes
Chase Brown faces a Steelers defense that has given up big plays to running backs in each of the first two games. David Montgomery faces a Colts defense that has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each game this season. After scoring a touchdown in each of the first two games this season, Omarion Hampton will keep that streak alive against the Bills in Week 3.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb | Dallas Cowboys
Lamb has established volume, averaging 8.5 targets per game, and faces a matchup with more scoring potential than some other expensive receivers against the Ravens. This game has the highest over/under on the slate at 52.5. I would expect a shootout and Lamb to lead the way in targets, receptions, and yards.
- FanDuel: $8,600
- DraftKings: $7,800
Deebo Samuels | San Francisco 49ers
Arizona has given up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. Deebo does a little bit of everything for the Niners; he has 1 carry in each of the first two games and has seen 5.5 targets per game. With Mike Evans missing practice on Wednesday, I place Samuels here. I like both players this week as the matchup is nice. Deebo is going to ride his bike down the street and snatch some chains in this one.
- FanDuel: $6,300
- DraftKings: $5,900
Josh Downs | Indianapolis Colts
In Week 2, Downs caught 7 of 9 targets for 2 yards. Alec Pierce is headed to injured reserve. Downs has a clear path to targets. To top it off, the Texans give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. The Texans give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers this season. Wide receivers average 12 receptions, 184 yards, and 2 touchdowns per game against this Texans defense. I did some Steiner math on this one, and it all adds up to a big day for Downs.
- FanDuel: $6,100
- DraftKings: $5,700
Ladd McConkey | Los Angeles Chargers
- FanDuel: $6,300
- DraftKings: $5,900
Garrett Wilson | New York Jets
- FanDuel: $7,300
- DraftKings: $6,300
Xavier Hutchinson | Houston Texans
- FanDuel: $5,800
- DraftKings: $4,000
Wide Receiver Notes: Josh Palmer is the low-priced pivot. At $4,900 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings, he becomes an appealing tournament punt if Keon Coleman remains out and DJ Moore is ruled out or clearly limited.
If Collins plays, Hutchinson is not a viable option. If Nico Collins is out this week, Xavier Hutchinson has a clear path to another 12 targets in an easy matchup, as he saw in Week 2. Ladd McConkey is the lead receiver in a smash matchup this week against the Bills. Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell should both produce against the weak and banged-up defense of the Lions in Week 3. I am literally jumping up and down to plug Mitchell into some lineups; I look like I am doing the pee-pee dance.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz | Houston Texans
Indianapolis is fifth in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Schultz’s 14 targets in Week 2 make him especially attractive if Nico Collins misses another game; Collins did not practice Wednesday. Schultz is averaging 11 targets per game. He has 16 catches and 175 yards in the first two games this season. I know nothing, nothing! But I know Sergeant Schultz will produce in Week 3.
- FanDuel: $5,800
- DraftKings: $4,200
Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo Bills
Dude, do you know who leads tight ends in receiving yards this season? It isn’t Schultz; it is Kincaid. This man has 225 receiving yards and a touchdown so far this season. He has a great mix of established involvement and scoring upside. With the Bills’ wide receivers mostly banged up, I expect Kincaid to lead the way again this week.
- FanDuel: $5,700
- DraftKings: $5,500
TJ Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings
- FanDuel: $5,100
- DraftKings: $3,200
Mark Andrews | Baltimore Ravens
- FanDuel: $5,300
- DraftKings: $4,400
AJ Barner | Seattle Seahawks
- FanDuel: $4,800
- DraftKings: $3,100
Tight End Notes: The Lions have allowed 4 touchdowns to opposing teams’ tight ends over the first two games, so Kenyon Sadiq is a great tournament play because of TD upside. TJ Hockenson and AJ Barner have not garnered many targets yet, which should scare some people off, but both have great tight-end matchups this week.
Defense
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will play the Dolphins in Week 3. Miami has allowed nine sacks in two games, and Kansas City enters as a heavy favorite. That gives the Chiefs a strong path to pressure and turnovers, though they are the most expensive choice for a DST this week. They are also a strong play in Week 3
- FanDuel: $5,000
- DraftKings: $3,700
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals defense has done a nice job producing fantasy points so far this season. They seem to find a way to get 4 sacks every game. This defense is a great DFS value this week. Cincinnati held Houston to six points last week and pressured C.J. Stroud on 43.5% of his dropbacks. Pittsburgh has averaged only 11.5 points through two games. The Bengals’ recent play and the opponent’s struggles make them my favorite play this week.
- FanDuel: $3,600
- DraftKings: $2,900
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay has struggled to score this season. In turn, they have also given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Minnesota offers a cheaper path to pressure and turnover points. This is the salary-saving defense. I will be playing them in quite a few places.
- FanDuel: $4,300
- DraftKings: $3,100
Check out all of our Week 3 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings
💔 Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff | Detroit Lions
Jared Goff seems to be a feast-or-famine type of guy. I would play Goff in season-long this week, but not in DFS. The Jets are the opponent, and they’ve allowed just 142.5 passing yards per game. This is one of those weeks where if you play him, you say to yourself, “Why did I do that?” over and over. Yes, I have been there.
Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars
Like Lawrence a lot this season. I really do. I also like the Patriots defense this season. New England has allowed only one passing touchdown in two games. I would probably sit him in season and not even consider him in DFS. Lawrence needs more than a routine passing day to pay off.
Marcus Mariota | Washington Commanders
I know you think Mariota’s rushing ability makes him an appealing streamer with Jayden Daniels sidelined, but Seattle has been one of the toughest quarterback matchups this season. The Seahawks give up the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. No thank you.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions
The Jets defense is very good. How good? Well, the Jets have allowed 55 rushing yards per game to running backs. Gibbs can overcome that through receiving, but Week 3 will test his ceiling. Obviously you are playing him in season-long, but in DFS I am not willing to pay up this week.
Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts
The Colts play the Texans in Week 3. The Texans give up the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. This is the case of playing against a pass-funnel defense. Houston has allowed no RB rushing touchdowns through two weeks. Taylor remains a redraft start; involvement in the passing game will have to carry him this week.
Bucky Irving | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota has also allowed no RB rushing touchdowns. The Vikings, you see, give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. Irving also has a path to production through his receiving work. I would just expect a little less in Week 3.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin. | Washington Commanders
The Seahawks come into Week 3 defending wide receivers better than anyone else in the league. Seattle has allowed just 16 WR catches for 126 yards total for the season. Mariota starting in place of Daniels adds uncertainty to McLaurin’s outlook. This is an easy pass, much easier than it will be for Mariota to pass to McLaurin Sunday.
Tee Higgins | Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will play the Steelers in Week 3. Pittsburgh has allowed no WR touchdowns and only 184 receiving yards to the position this season. This game is going to be more of a defensive matchup than we are used to from the Bengals and Steelers.
Devaughn Vele | New Orleans Saints
Vele has earned 16 targets in two games, making him a high-volume consideration. Las Vegas has allowed no WR touchdowns this season. In fact, the Raiders give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride | Arizona Cardinals
The Niners are up in Week 3. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends through the first two games of this season. McBride’s target volume keeps him in redraft lineups; the matchup makes him a cautious DFS play. I know he is the number one target on the Cardinals, but the price is too high when I can get that production elsewhere. Obviously, you are playing him in season-long formats.
Sam LaPorta | Detroit Lions
The Jets have allowed opposing tight ends only seven catches and 50 yards combined this season. LaPorta is still playable, but his Week 3 projection should come down. I am not sure I would play him in any format as I don’t think he will have the volume to produce.
Isaiah Likely | New York Giants
Likely has earned substantial early volume for the Giants this season. The Titans are up this week. Tennessee has allowed only 35 receiving yards to tight ends in two games. Backup Jameis Winston is taking over at quarterback for the Giants. He likes to push the ball downfield. This is a place where we need to see what happens before I feel comfortable recommending Likely as a play. It is unlikely I play Isaiah this week.
Reedy Rule of the Week
Start with the matchup, confirm the workload, then check the price. A big name can beat a tough defense, but in DFS, “could have a good game” is not enough. The Money Maker is the player whose opportunity gives him a realistic path to outscore his salary.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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