Week 3 NFL Player Props

Last week started well with a first-half cash on my first NFL player prop. Things went south after that, however, as I finished the week 1-2. The good news is we have a fresh batch of matchups to exploit in Week 3. These recommendations are also favorable for fantasy and DFS and do not have to be used solely for betting purposes. Whether you are risking dollars or doll hairs, please do so responsibly.

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Week 3 NFL Player Props

Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns: 8+ First Half Rushing Attempts (-115, Fanatics)

My first Week 3 NFL player prop is for Quinshon Judkins to carry the ball at least eight times in the first half against the Carolina Panthers. I haven’t seen this specific prop listed on any other sportsbooks. For the record, I do like the over on Judkins’s game-long rushing attempt total of 14.5. But I believe that his first-half rushing attempt total is easier to count on in this game.

The matchup between Cleveland’s rushing offense and Carolina’s rushing defense might be the resistible force meeting the movable object. Cleveland enters this game ranked 29^th in EPA (expected points added) on the ground. Meanwhile, Carolina is 29^th in EPA against the run, while ranking eighth against the pass. Opposing running backs have already gone for 347 yards on just 55 total carries versus the Panthers this year. As much as I would like to believe Judkins will beat his yardage props, I do not trust Cleveland’s offensive line. If you remove runs by Deshaun Watson, the Browns are averaging 2.22 yards per carry this year. Their longest rush through two games is a 10-yard run by wide receiver KC Concepcion.

Having said that, I think Cleveland will at least *try* to establish the run early. Judkins carried the ball eight times in the first half last week. Penalties called back two additional carries. Facing a Panthers team that features a bad defense and a surprisingly potent offense, the Browns would be wise to feed Judkins early and keep things close to the vest. This game should be close if the Vegas lines are any indication. But taking Judkins’s first-half carries enables us to prevent the possibility of Carolina jumping out early and Cleveland being forced to play catch-up. Again, if you do not have the option, 15 carries throughout the game is certainly in play as well.

Emmett Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

I debated whether to play Emmett Johnson’s rushing yardage prop, his receiving yardage prop, or his rushing-plus-receiving yardage prop. I think they are all in play when he and the Kansas City Chiefs face the Miami Dolphins. Ultimately, I decided to go the receiving yardage route (no pun intended). The Chiefs played an overtime game on Sunday night, and Kenneth Walker III logged 30 touches. That’s 56 already in two games, and Kansas City has already discussed scaling his workload back a bit. What that means for Johnson’s Week 3 workload is not entirely certain. What is known is that Johnson has excelled as a receiver out of the backfield.

The rookie has Pro Football Focus’s highest receiving grade among running backs through two weeks. He has caught all four of his targets for 64 yards. Johnson’s receiving prowess will play well against Miami. Opposing quarterbacks have targeted running backs 12 times versus the Dolphins thus far in 2026. All 12 of those passes have been completed for a total of 115 yards. Johnson may need only one catch in this game to clear this 9.5-yard barrier. Miami enters this game dead last in the NFL in EPA against the pass. They are 12^th-best against the run, however. While Kansas City intends to give Walker a breather, this could also be a slight letdown spot. Thus, Johnson’s receiving yardage prop is one of my favorite Week 3 NFL player props.

Check out all of our Week 3 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 40+ Rushing Yards (-106, FanDuel)

The prices and totals for Lamar Jackson’s rushing yardage props vary between sportsbooks. Fanatics has the lowest threshold for Jackson to reach on the ground, at 35.5 yards. However, that number is priced at -150. That’s a bit steep for me, considering we can get reasonable prices elsewhere for Jackson to reach 40 rushing yards. We would be risking an extra 42 percent (1.5 units compared to 1.06) for a four-yard buffer. Jackson would have to finish with exactly 36 to 39 rushing yards a third of the time we play this prop to justify risking the extra 0.44 units. In fairness, he has finished his first two games with 40 and 34, so it’s not unfathomable. Still, I expect him to surpass these benchmarks on Sunday when the Ravens face the Dallas Cowboys.

Dallas has not been able to solve mobile quarterbacks on the ground so far this season. Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels have combined for 123 rushing yards against them. Keep in mind that Daniels only played the first half against the Cowboys last week. Or that Dart’s 54 yards included three kneel-downs at the end of the game. If we count pure rushing attempts and scrambles, Dart and Daniels ran for 128 yards on just 15 carries. Jackson has been judicious as to when he runs this season. But I expect him to use his legs more in this matchup. I suspect Jackson’s rushing yardage line creeps into the 40s by kickoff on Sunday. So I am happy to grab it now at a number and price that are much more palatable.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!