Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Last week was a massive disappointment. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were driving down the field but suffered a lightning delay for hours before ultimately losing. If that delay doesn’t happen, we still don’t know if they win. Tampa was not taking care of business when they had the ball and looked downright awful. The Eagles held off a near upset by the Titans, while the Chargers were a pivot option that did not pay off. This week offers better options, but most of them have great future value. Let’s dive into the best picks and who to fade in survivor pools in Week 3.

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Week 3 NFL Survivor Picks

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at Miami Dolphins

It feels weird to use such a great team this early. Usually, a team like the Chiefs would be a fade just because of their future value. While Kansas City has some juicy matchups down the line, there are other options worth considering those weeks.

In Week 9, the Chiefs host the Jets, but you can use the Seahawks (vs. Cardinals), 49ers (vs. Raiders), Lions (at Dolphins), or Eagles (at Giants). In Week 11, the Chiefs host the Cardinals, but you can also consider the Bills (vs. Dolphins, but Buffalo has great future value), Cowboys (vs. Titans), or Eagles (vs. Steelers). The only other great time to use the Chiefs is in Week 18 when they host the Raiders, but teams often rest players that week, so projecting spreads is mostly useless.

This week, the Chiefs are my clear option, and I may go all-in with them. In very small pools, you want a bit more safety as you expect the pool to end quicker. In larger pools, the Chiefs’ future value is intriguing, but there are other good options to consider in those weeks.

Not only does the large spread point to a lopsided matchup, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-0 against quality opponents in the Broncos and Colts. The Chiefs rank 5th in DVOA and 4th in EPA/play. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 0-2, losing to the Raiders and getting blown out by the 49ers. Miami is dead last in DVOA and struggles to move the ball. Malik Willis has been sacked a league-high nine times, and the team has yet to eclipse 13 points. The Chiefs are a safe bet in survivor pools this week and offer value in pools of all sizes.

Detroit Lions (-6.5) vs. New York Jets

Unless you want to keep taking the big favorites with great future value or go for a risky play, there aren’t many great pivot options this week. The Lions are a risk against the Jets, which is shocking considering public perception of them heading into the season.

The Lions nearly lost to the Saints in Week 1 and then got thrashed by the Bills in Week 2. They are on extra rest, though, while the Jets are coming off an overtime loss. There is a chance that the rest difference helps a bit. Additionally, the Detroit offense is chugging along. While the defense is forcing them to keep their foot on the gas, the Lions have kept pace with their offense. They have scored 31 points in each of their games this year.

The concern is whether their beat-up defense can hold off a Jets upset. Geno Smith and the Jets are 1-1 but were close to an undefeated start. Smith has only thrown a single TD, but has yet to throw an interception. Strictly by DVOA, the Jets are the better team. However, there needs to be more context than that. I don’t think it’s entirely fair to pick and choose which teams get ranked by DVOA and which don’t, but a team that went 3-14 last year with a bridge QB warrants a closer look.

Geno Smith has yet to be truly challenged and will have to keep pace with an elite offense. The Jets may have the ability to stay in this game, which is why they are below the Chiefs. I will have very few Lions picks in my survivor pool portfolios, but they are an interesting team to use up early in what could be one of their best opportunities purely based on the spread. However, Detroit still plays Miami and Tennessee down the line and can be saved for those matchups.

Check out all of our Week 3 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings

Survivor Picks to Fade

Buffalo Bills (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Through the first two weeks of the season, Josh Allen looks like the MVP frontrunner. Allen has scored nine TDs, and the offense has scored 77 points. The defense has been awful, though, allowing 31 points in both games this season. That may not matter most weeks when Allen is obliterating opposing defenses, but it is a slight concern. That is not the main reason that I am fading the Bills, though.

Los Angeles is 0-2 for good reason, falling to opponents that most considered bottom of the league. Justin Herbert has turned the ball over three times and fumbled three times. It’s clear that he is getting pummeled in the pocket. Per PFF, Herbert has been pressured on over 45% of his dropbacks, second amongst QBs with at least 30 dropbacks. Herbert was given a 28.5 offensive grade when pressured, 4th worst in the league. This is clearly a tale of two QBs heading in different directions this season.

The main problem is Buffalo has some of the best matchups in the future. You can easily start the Bills against the Jets and Dolphins, both home and away, along with games against the Raiders and Bears. They’re also a last-ditch effort that can win against anyone if Allen is healthy. They’re a safe play if you want to be different this week, but I’d rather take the chalk play in the Chiefs and save the Bills for later.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Washington Commanders

While Drew Lock took care of business last week, I am not putting my survivor pool chances in his hands. Lock is a career backup who has been put into a great situation with the Seahawks. The Commanders just lost starting QB Jayden Daniels and should be an easier matchup than previously projected. However, backups always add an element of uncertainty that I would recommend avoiding in survivor pools if much better options are available. Sam Darnold is not expected to miss much more time, and Seattle hosts the Cardinals in Week 9. I’d rather save them in survivor pools.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Packers are coming off of an overtime game against the Jets and now play on a short week. While the Atlanta Falcons have been the lowest-scoring team in the league, they will be making a QB change. Michael Penix has been serviceable in his limited time with the Falcons. Penix is only 4-8 as a starter, but he has thrown 12 TDs to only six interceptions.

There is a level of certainty that you want when making a survivor pool pick. When a backup QB comes in, that may be a great opportunity to smash a team, but it may also lead to upset potential. You can’t have the team with the best spread every week, but you often have multiple options with more certainty. Add in that the Packers are coming off of an overtime game and get even less rest, and there is reason for concern. There are plenty of reasons to like the Packers against a struggling Falcons team, but there are just as many reasons to fade them and let your opponent take that ticking time bomb. The risk-reward is not there.

Finally, the Packers are worth holding onto. Green Bay will host the Dolphins in Week 15. While things can change down the line, expectations are that the 0-2 Dolphins with Malik Willis and a depleted skill position group will be an easier matchup. Fade the Packers in Week 3.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!