Week 5 Monday Night Football Preview: Rams vs. Bills

Josh Allen and the Bills visit Matthew Stafford and the Rams. A shootout could be in store as two offensive titans face off on Monday Night Football. Most of the fantasy-relevant players are clear starts in Week 5. There are still major question marks at some key positions though. Who should you start or sit on Monday Night Football?

More Fantasy Football Fun!: | Sneaky Starts | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire | Weekly Sleepers & Streamers | Starts & Sits | Skrip’s Week Winners | Players You Can Drop | NFL DFS | NFL Player Props | IDP Analysis | Bold Predictions | Re-Draft Trade Targets | Survivor Picks | NFL Injury Report | Dynasty Trade Targets | Dynasty Risers and Fallers | Weekly Rankings | Game Previews

Week 5 MNF Fantasy Preview

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) O/U: 54.5

Clear Starts: Josh Allen, James Cook III, Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams

The Buffalo Bills WRs

With Josh Palmer ruled out, there are a trio of receivers with fantasy value for Buffalo. DJ Moore is officially questionable after logging just a single limited practice, but the extra day of rest should benefit him.

Khalil Shakir is the safest play in this WR room. Shakir consistently garners targets each week. However, his upside is incredibly limited. Despite leading the team in red zone targets, he has yet to score this season. Shakir did the same last year and still only scored four times. Based on what we have seen in his previous two seasons, Shakir is a low-aDOT receiver who will be peppered with targets but ultimately not offer much fantasy value. Last season, Shakir peaked with 20.8 PPR points in Week 7. He only eclipsed 13 PPR points on four occasions. If you are looking for a guy with a solid floor most weeks, he gets the job done.

D.J. Moore and Keon Coleman are inconsistent but present much more upside on a weekly basis. Moore has two games of 12 or more points, including a 21-point PPR game. However, he also has two games where he combined for just 2.6 fantasy points. Moore did leave early in those games, though, so it’s not entirely on him. Keon Coleman similarly had two good games, including a 23.6-point game, but just 5.8 points in his other two combined. Josh Allen has spread the ball around to his receivers, but Moore appears to be the best option when healthy. Moore is 10th amongst WRs with 50+ routes in targets per route run according to Sumer Sports. The real question is whether he can stay healthy.

If you want a low-ceiling safety blanket, then Khalil Shakir is the guy. However, most fantasy football managers are looking for a mix of upside and safety. D.J. Moore, when healthy, is the upside play who should garner the most targets. If Moore misses time against the Rams, Keon Coleman could step in and offer just as much upside. That’s not something you can bet on, though, so Moore is the better play this week.

Dalton Kincaid – TE, Buffalo Bills

After scoring 18 and 22.5 PPR points to start the year, Dalton Kincaid is averaging just over three fantasy in his last two games. Not only has Kincaid seen a major dip in fantasy points, but his target numbers are concerning. Kincaid went from 14 targets in his first two games to just five in his next two. Josh Allen threw about the same amount of passes, and Kincaid played only slightly fewer snaps in those sets of games. What gives?

Matchups have played a part. The Patriots allow the fewest fantasy points to TEs. A.J. Barner, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Brenton Strange were all held to 32 yards or fewer against the Patriots this season. Kincaid didn’t fare any better, catching one of two targets for just seven yards. The Chargers were also a difficult matchup. While Trey McBride had a phenomenal day against them, Michael Mayer had the next best TE game against them with three catches and 23 yards. The Detroit Lions, on the other hand, allow the most fantasy points to TEs, though the Houston Texans have been pretty good against TEs. Not all of this can be explained by matchup, but it does not help.

If Kincaid is going to struggle against the toughest matchups, then this week may be bad. The Los Angeles Rams allow the second fewest fantasy points to TEs. Even George Kittle finished with just two catches for 12 yards on five targets against them. Isaiah Likely only caught five of his 10 targets for 33 yards, too. Based on Kincaid’s performances against two other tough defenses, this trend could only continue. If upside is what you need, this is not the week to bet on it. Unfortunately, most fantasy managers with Kincaid roster him as their starting TE. That does not leave you with many options, and you may need to start him and hope. Just don’t be surprised if he disappoints again.

Tyler Higbee – TE, Los Angeles Rams

Ever since Terrance Ferguson got hurt, Tyler Higbee has stepped up. Over his last two games, Higbee has drawn 17 targets. He turned those into 13 catches for 129 yards and a TD. However, the target could be a concern going forward. Puka Nacua missed Week 4’s loss to the Broncos. Matthew Stafford threw 55 times, with most of the targets going to Davante Adams, Tyler Higbee, Konata Mumpfield, and Kyren Williams. Higbee had a 20% target share. When Puka Nacua returned for a comeback win against the Eagles, Stafford threw 51 times. However, Higbee was only targeted six times. That’s just an 11.76% target share. Stafford is unlikely to throw over 50 times a game. In a more positive game script with the receivers healthy, Higbee could take a hit.

This week should be good, though. The Rams are favored by a field goal in a game with a point total of 54.5. Against Josh Allen, there is massive shootout potential. Matthew Stafford should keep throwing. Higbee also has two red zone targets and faces a Rams team that ranks middle of the pack against TEs. Higbee should be well in the mix for targets, but don’t expect massive upside. You can start Higbee as a high-end TE2.