Last week, we ate the chalk. The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings both survived. However, both teams combined for around 80% of picks in many pools. The Green Bay Packers also survived despite much less usage. That pivot paid off if you were bold enough to use a bad Packers team in one of the few situations that you could possibly trust them. One of my two fades – the Buffalo Bills – lost. This week, there is a clear fade and some solid picks that will not be utilized much. Here’s to surviving in Week 5.
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Week 5 NFL Survivor Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Many have used the Jacksonville Jaguars already. They were a popular Week 1 pick, but still offer value if you have them available in Week 5. The Jaguars rank third in defensive DVOA and fourth on offense. They play “host” to the Eagles in London. The Jaguars have played at least one game in the United Kingdom since 2013. They take on an Eagles team that looks closer to a rebuild than a contender. OL Lane Johnson retired, and Cam Jurgens was just traded to the Baltimore Ravens. RB Saquon Barkley and WR DeVonta Smith are both hurt and not expected to play. Jalen Hurts will be without key assets on offense this week.
Even in their two wins, the Eagles only won by a combined six points. They were lucky to win against bad Commanders and Titans teams. The Eagles defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and faced a daunting Jaguars team. Trevor Lawrence is looking like the elite prospect that we were promised under HC Liam Coen. The Eagles are trending downwards in a major way. If you have the Jaguars available, this is a good spot to use them. The Jaguars still have some good games down the line but you differentiate your entry by using them here. Most of the pool will be on the Cowboys and Bengals.
Houston Texans (-7.5) at Tennessee Titans
It’s shocking but the Houston Texans are 0-4 right now. The defense has not been as elite as most expected, ranking 15th in DVOA and 26th in EPA/play. To their credit, the Texans lost three of their games by a single score. They also versed two great offenses in the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys. A divisional loss to the Colts was decided by just two points. This week, they visit the Titans in what should be a bounce back game.
Cam Ward has just one game with multiple TDs this season, a loss to the Eagles where he scored twice on the ground thanks to a handful of turnovers. He still only managed 190 total yards in the defeat. This week, he verses a Texans defense that has struggled but still ranks better than the lowly Eagles. Additionally, Houston’s offense ranks in the top half of the league. C.J. Stroud has yet to throw an interception but has five passing TDs this year. Stroud has taken care of the ball for most of his career, only throwing an interception on 1.6% of his passes in 50 games.
This is a divisional game on the road for an 0-4 team, but the Texans are still better. There is no reason to trust Cam Ward and the Titans right now. They would need a perfect storm to find a win. The Texans have a few other good games this year, namely hosting the Giants in Week 7 and hosting the Titans in Week 18. If you are in multiple survivor pools or have multiple entries in one pool, I would not over expose myself to the Texans. However, I would recommend adding them to your portfolio. Many members in your pool may be turned off by the road divisional game and decide to trust the Cowboys this week.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
As far as opportunity goes, this is golden. Lamar Jackson missed a chunk of last week’s win over the Titans and did not practice on Wednesday. There is a chance that he misses this week’s contest in Atlanta. The Falcons are as hot as they get, averaging 40 points scored and 19 points allowed over their past two games. Michael Penix Jr. was the QB in those games, and he has proven to be an upgrade over Cooper Rush. Penix has done well in limited starts with the Falcons. He has especially excelled at not turning the ball over. Penix has a 1.6% interception rate in his career over 16 games played. A dominant run game has certainly helped, and it could continue this week against the Ravens.
Baltimore is expected to miss Lamar Jackson, but they could miss even more pieces. WR Zay Flowers was a limited participant on Wednesday. G Andrew Voorhees, LB Trey Hendrickson, and CB Marlon Humphrey all did not practice on Wednesday either. Thursday and Friday will matter a lot, but QB is going to be the most important part of this pick. If you are in a survivor pool that allows pick up until a game starts, the Falcons are worth considering. If Lamar Jackson can’t go, Tyler Huntley would get the start. Huntley has 551 career pass attempts and a 7-9 record as a starter. He may be able to win a couple with a great Ravens team, but Baltimore is hurt and struggling more than ever.
The Ravens run defense ranks 18th in DVOA and could struggle to contain Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson this week. Michael Penix Jr. can also attack through the air with his RBs or targeting WR Drake London. This Falcons team is a lot better than many expected and could get a win in Week 5. Consider them in your survivor pools. You can’t just pick the highest spread each week and expect to win. These are the teams you need to take while they’re available to hold onto future value.
Survivor Picks to Fade
Dallas Cowboys (-8) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Likely the most popular pick of the week, the Dallas Cowboys are in a great spot. While the Cowboys defense ranks dead last in DVOA and 31st in EPA/play, their offense has been tremendous. Dak Prescott is a borderline MVP candidate with 1,065 yards, eight TDs, and only one interception through four games. Prescott faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks ninth in DVOA. However, Tampa Bay will once again trot out Jalon Daniels at QB. Daniels is a rookie undrafted free agent who only managed 148 passing yards, one TD, and two interceptions last week against a putrid Packers defense.
The Cowboys are not in a bad spot at all, but I am willing to fade them. For one, their defense is awful. I don’t trust Jalon Daniels to beat them bad enough to win, but that is a factor to consider. Tampa Bay’s defense has also performed well, and this is a short week for both teams. Additionally, the Cowboys have a few games down the line that you should consider. While the Arizona Cardinals could be tough in Week 8, the Tennessee Titans will be visiting the Cowboys in Week 11. If you can survive long enough, most of your league will either be eliminated or will have used the Cowboys already. This is a great opportunity to fade a big favorite and hope for an upset. The Cowboys also host the Giants in Week 17. That’s not as enticing as the Titans, but it’s another game to consider.
Overall, I don’t hate having some Dallas in your portfolio. However, there is enough risk and good enough future value to want to stay off of them. If you have already picked most of the big favorites over the past weeks, it’s time to be different and give yourself a real shot at winning your survivor pool. Fade the Cowboys in Week 5.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7) at Miami Dolphins
The Bengals defense has improved over the past few years. Despite that, it’s still hard to respect it. Dexter Lawrence can only do so much at the line of scrimmage, and nobody can trust this secondary. The Bengals are also expected to miss WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. On the road against the Dolphins, we could see an upset. I am not fading the Bengals just because of injuries, but mainly because they are dealing with injuries on the road, have other good matchups down the line, and will be used quite a bit in most survivor pools in Week 5.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals host the Titans in Week 8, and they also have home games against the Steelers, Saints and Browns. You may not be keen on playing them against any of their division rivals or a high-powered Saints offense, but the Titans are enticing. The Bengals are on bye in Week 6 and should get some much-needed rest before playing the Ravens and then the Titans in Week 8. I would rather save them for that game. While I do not expect the Dolphins to outright win this week, there is enough going against the Bengals to want to pivot off of them and let your opponents take on a riskier pick in Week 5. Fade the Bengals and hope that this is finally the week that Miami wins a game.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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